Election 2024 Update
Will Biden and Trump be the nominees?
GEORGE NOGA
DEC 10, 2023
Readers have asked for my take on the 2024 election. For the many new readers of my blog on the Substack platform, I have been involved as a participant and keen observer of politics for nearly 60 years. I have gotten it right (including Trump in 2016) far more than I have whiffed. Read my political bonafides on Substack.
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Democratic Party Nomination
Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee. One of my favorite aphorisms is that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t. Biden cannot go on forever in his present physical and cognitive state. His deterioration is visible to all and is getting worse. Moreover, the Biden family corruption scandal is closing in on him from all sides. Biden will be forced to drop out of the race for the following reasons:
- His physical condition, already highly problematic, will deteriorate and he will experience more public episodes of falling, stumbling and fragility.
- He will continue to degrade cognitively, again with highly public episodes of confusion, mumbling, silence, misspeaking and spinning tall tales.
- Evidence, already quite abundant, of the Biden family business of corruption, influence peddling, money laundering, tax evasion and bribery will reach such a critical mass that it no longer can be plausibly denied. Evidence of Biden corruption is mounting on a weekly basis and will only get worse.
- Polling shows Biden losing nationally to Trump and to the other Republican candidates and in nearly all the swing states – by wide and increasing margins.
- Biden’s support among independents, Hispanics, Arab-Americans, the young, Black males and suburbanites is tanking by double digits and plummeting.
- Democratic politicians and media are publicly challenging Biden’s fitness. It is only a matter of time until one or more top Democrats (Obama?) speaks out.
- Biden’s fund raising is anemic; many big donors are holding back.
- Kamala Harris is a monumental liability; Biden can’t ditch her – but another nominee could. Moreover, there is a good chance she would become president in a Biden second term and would be a electoral disaster for Democrats in 2028.
Biden will hold out as long as possible because he is stubborn; Jill wants to continue being first lady; and (critically) he wants to retain the power to issue pardons for himself, family members and others involved in promoting the Biden brand.
If Not Biden, Who?
The nominee will be Gavin Newsom; there really aren’t other viable choices. Kamala Harris would be a disaster. Also, invoking Occam’s Razor, Newsom is the most logical choice and he is chomping at the bit to enter the race.
I would not rule out Michelle Obama stepping in at the last minute in a brokered convention. That would have two benefits. First, it would solve the Kamala Harris problem. Second, it would leave little time for Michelle to self destruct. I understand Michelle is popular, but that doesn’t translate into an electoral mandate.
Republican Party Nomination
Trump has such a commanding lead, it is difficult to imagine anyone overtaking him. At the date of this post, the only person with even a long shot is Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis had a shot but blew it. He made four critical errors, all preventable. Note: I like DeSantis, believe he is a great governor and would make a good president.
- His campaign misfired at the very beginning due to mismanagement. He hired the wrong political consultants and managers – since replaced.
- He ran on social issues. This was unnecessary as he already had established his anti-wokeness bonafides. He should have left Disney alone; there was no upside from piling on. Instead, he should have focused on bread and butter issues.
- DeSantis fails to come across as a personable campaigner.
- The Florida six-week abortion ban was a gashing, self-inflicted wound.
General Election
Who will win, Trump or Newsom? The plethora of independent and third party candidates muddies the waters. As of now, the following candidates are likely:
- Independent: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
- Independent: Cornel West
- No Labels: Nominee unknown – possibly a Manchin/Romney ticket
- Green Party: Jill Stein is the likely nominee
- Libertarian Party: Nominee not yet determined
All the independent and third party movements, except the Libertarian Party, favor Trump as they would draw far more votes from Biden.
The election is over 300 days away and it is far too early for me to opine. But stay tuned to my blog for more about election 2024 and my fearless forecast.
© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com