Election 2024 Update

Will Biden and Trump be the nominees?

GEORGE NOGA

DEC 10, 2023

Readers have asked for my take on the 2024 election. For the many new readers of my blog on the Substack platform, I have been involved as a participant and keen observer of politics for nearly 60 years. I have gotten it right (including Trump in 2016) far more than I have whiffed. Read my political bonafides on Substack.

A young African American woman casting her ballot in 1964

Democratic Party Nomination

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee. One of my favorite aphorisms is that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t. Biden cannot go on forever in his present physical and cognitive state. His deterioration is visible to all and is getting worse. Moreover, the Biden family corruption scandal is closing in on him from all sides. Biden will be forced to drop out of the race for the following reasons:

His physical condition, already highly problematic, will deteriorate and he will experience more public episodes of falling, stumbling and fragility.
He will continue to degrade cognitively, again with highly public episodes of confusion, mumbling, silence, misspeaking and spinning tall tales.
Evidence, already quite abundant, of the Biden family business of corruption, influence peddling, money laundering, tax evasion and bribery will reach such a critical mass that it no longer can be plausibly denied. Evidence of Biden corruption is mounting on a weekly basis and will only get worse.
Polling shows Biden losing nationally to Trump and to the other Republican candidates and in nearly all the swing states – by wide and increasing margins.
Biden’s support among independents, Hispanics, Arab-Americans, the young, Black males and suburbanites is tanking by double digits and plummeting.
Democratic politicians and media are publicly challenging Biden’s fitness. It is only a matter of time until one or more top Democrats (Obama?) speaks out.
Biden’s fund raising is anemic; many big donors are holding back.
Kamala Harris is a monumental liability; Biden can’t ditch her – but another nominee could. Moreover, there is a good chance she would become president in a Biden second term and would be a electoral disaster for Democrats in 2028.

Biden will hold out as long as possible because he is stubborn; Jill wants to continue being first lady; and (critically) he wants to retain the power to issue pardons for himself, family members and others involved in promoting the Biden brand.

If Not Biden, Who?

The nominee will be Gavin Newsom; there really aren’t other viable choices. Kamala Harris would be a disaster. Also, invoking Occam’s Razor, Newsom is the most logical choice and he is chomping at the bit to enter the race.

I would not rule out Michelle Obama stepping in at the last minute in a brokered convention. That would have two benefits. First, it would solve the Kamala Harris problem. Second, it would leave little time for Michelle to self destruct. I understand Michelle is popular, but that doesn’t translate into an electoral mandate.

Republican Party Nomination

Trump has such a commanding lead, it is difficult to imagine anyone overtaking him. At the date of this post, the only person with even a long shot is Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis had a shot but blew it. He made four critical errors, all preventable. Note: I like DeSantis, believe he is a great governor and would make a good president.

His campaign misfired at the very beginning due to mismanagement. He hired the wrong political consultants and managers – since replaced.
He ran on social issues. This was unnecessary as he already had established his anti-wokeness bonafides. He should have left Disney alone; there was no upside from piling on. Instead, he should have focused on bread and butter issues.
DeSantis fails to come across as a personable campaigner.
The Florida six-week abortion ban was a gashing, self-inflicted wound.

General Election

Who will win, Trump or Newsom? The plethora of independent and third party candidates muddies the waters. As of now, the following candidates are likely:

Independent: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Independent: Cornel West
No Labels: Nominee unknown – possibly a Manchin/Romney ticket
Green Party: Jill Stein is the likely nominee
Libertarian Party: Nominee not yet determined

All the independent and third party movements, except the Libertarian Party, favor Trump as they would draw far more votes from Biden.

The election is over 300 days away and it is far too early for me to opine. But stay tuned to my blog for more about election 2024 and my fearless forecast.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Enduring principles of American politics
GEORGE NOGA
JUN 18, 2023

This is the first of periodic posts about Election 2024. Between now and the election I will offer perspective about the candidates, issues, electoral process, keys to the election and, of course, my fearless forecast of winners and losers. Longtime readers know I have gotten it right most of the time, including Trump in 2016. This post is about why people run for president and some enduring political principles.

a picture of a donkey and a donkey with stars on it

Why run for president?

Have you wondered why so many people, with no realistic chance to win, enter the presidential sweepstakes. It may surprise you that there are many reasons.

Positioning for VP or top level appointment. An example is Kamala Harris; Tim Scott also fits in here, although he has an outside chance to grab the brass ring.
Positioning for the future. With a strong showing, a candidate might become a strong contender – or even the frontrunner – in the next election cycle.
Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Every few election cycles a dark horse unexpectedly catches fire; a good example is Herman Cain in 2012.
Establishing national bona fides. A little known local or state official may run to get into the national conversation; examples are Mayor Pete and Tulsi Gabbard.
Hoping for a cabinet position or ambassadorship. Most long shot candidates fall into this category; Mayor Pete is a good example.
Going for the money. The not-so-hidden aim is to get a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal, or a seven-figure gig on cable television.
Vanity and entitlement. Never underestimate the narcissism and solipsism of politicians. They convince themselves the people eagerly await their candidacy. Marianne Williamson fits this bill as does Gavin Newsom should he run.
Stalking horse. The classic example is Eugene McCarthy in 1968 who was a stalking horse for Robert Kennedy. Many believe Robert Kennedy, Jr. fits that category today and is a stalking horse for other candidates to enter the race.
Trial run. Candidates wish to test their abilities at fund raising, national politics, debates and organizing and running a presidential campaign.
Combination. This fits most candidates not likely to win nomination. They are hoping that, if they make a respectable showing, something good will happen.

Principles of American Politics

American political history and tradition are based on principles that have withstood the test of time. They exert an outsized effect on elections and transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. They are ignored only at great peril.

America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or a McGovern. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 80 years are Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. Carter and Clinton were southern state governors while Obama and Biden ran as unifying centrists.
Economics uber alles. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid” was right on track. Voters reward politicians who make them better off.
There are no permanent majorities. Demographics, alliances and issues always are in flux. Minority parties adapt; movements, like the Tea Party or Green Party, are subsumed into larger groups. Other than FDR/Truman and reconstruction, no party has retained power for more than 12 consecutive years in the past 230 years.
The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. As noted supra, with few exceptions, no party has retained power more than 3 consecutive terms. Only once in the past 154 years (Reagan/Bush) has a full two-term president been succeeded by a member of his party. Americans understand power corrupts.
Incumbency is powerful. In the past 130 years only 3 elected presidents have lost. Americans prefer the fool they know to the devil they don’t.
Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton outspent Trump 2 to 1.
Polling as we know it is dead. Most polls are skewed to promote one candidate or to suppress the vote of another. Even credible polling organizations can’t get it right due to absence of land lines and voters’ reluctance to respond to pollsters. Real people casting real votes in real elections always trump polls; that’s why the early primaries are so crucial in providing clarity not possible from polling.
It is far too early; most Americans don’t focus on elections until after Labor Day. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in September but Bush won by 7 points. Reagan trailed Carter well into October but won by 10 points and carried 44 states.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Tag: Election 2024