Election 2024 Update

Will Biden and Trump be the nominees?

GEORGE NOGA

DEC 10, 2023

Readers have asked for my take on the 2024 election. For the many new readers of my blog on the Substack platform, I have been involved as a participant and keen observer of politics for nearly 60 years. I have gotten it right (including Trump in 2016) far more than I have whiffed. Read my political bonafides on Substack.

A young African American woman casting her ballot in 1964

Democratic Party Nomination

Joe Biden will not be the Democratic Party nominee. One of my favorite aphorisms is that if something cannot go on forever, it won’t. Biden cannot go on forever in his present physical and cognitive state. His deterioration is visible to all and is getting worse. Moreover, the Biden family corruption scandal is closing in on him from all sides. Biden will be forced to drop out of the race for the following reasons:

His physical condition, already highly problematic, will deteriorate and he will experience more public episodes of falling, stumbling and fragility.
He will continue to degrade cognitively, again with highly public episodes of confusion, mumbling, silence, misspeaking and spinning tall tales.
Evidence, already quite abundant, of the Biden family business of corruption, influence peddling, money laundering, tax evasion and bribery will reach such a critical mass that it no longer can be plausibly denied. Evidence of Biden corruption is mounting on a weekly basis and will only get worse.
Polling shows Biden losing nationally to Trump and to the other Republican candidates and in nearly all the swing states – by wide and increasing margins.
Biden’s support among independents, Hispanics, Arab-Americans, the young, Black males and suburbanites is tanking by double digits and plummeting.
Democratic politicians and media are publicly challenging Biden’s fitness. It is only a matter of time until one or more top Democrats (Obama?) speaks out.
Biden’s fund raising is anemic; many big donors are holding back.
Kamala Harris is a monumental liability; Biden can’t ditch her – but another nominee could. Moreover, there is a good chance she would become president in a Biden second term and would be a electoral disaster for Democrats in 2028.

Biden will hold out as long as possible because he is stubborn; Jill wants to continue being first lady; and (critically) he wants to retain the power to issue pardons for himself, family members and others involved in promoting the Biden brand.

If Not Biden, Who?

The nominee will be Gavin Newsom; there really aren’t other viable choices. Kamala Harris would be a disaster. Also, invoking Occam’s Razor, Newsom is the most logical choice and he is chomping at the bit to enter the race.

I would not rule out Michelle Obama stepping in at the last minute in a brokered convention. That would have two benefits. First, it would solve the Kamala Harris problem. Second, it would leave little time for Michelle to self destruct. I understand Michelle is popular, but that doesn’t translate into an electoral mandate.

Republican Party Nomination

Trump has such a commanding lead, it is difficult to imagine anyone overtaking him. At the date of this post, the only person with even a long shot is Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis had a shot but blew it. He made four critical errors, all preventable. Note: I like DeSantis, believe he is a great governor and would make a good president.

His campaign misfired at the very beginning due to mismanagement. He hired the wrong political consultants and managers – since replaced.
He ran on social issues. This was unnecessary as he already had established his anti-wokeness bonafides. He should have left Disney alone; there was no upside from piling on. Instead, he should have focused on bread and butter issues.
DeSantis fails to come across as a personable campaigner.
The Florida six-week abortion ban was a gashing, self-inflicted wound.

General Election

Who will win, Trump or Newsom? The plethora of independent and third party candidates muddies the waters. As of now, the following candidates are likely:

Independent: Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Independent: Cornel West
No Labels: Nominee unknown – possibly a Manchin/Romney ticket
Green Party: Jill Stein is the likely nominee
Libertarian Party: Nominee not yet determined

All the independent and third party movements, except the Libertarian Party, favor Trump as they would draw far more votes from Biden.

The election is over 300 days away and it is far too early for me to opine. But stay tuned to my blog for more about election 2024 and my fearless forecast.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinners are now being held. The hypocrisy

in its honoring of slaveholders and genocidal Indian fighters is too rich to ignore.

By: George Noga – April 10, 2016

Although this posting has Democrats in its cross-hairs, I am obliged to repeat that our MLLG blog is non-partisan. We disdain both major political parties. Our lodestar is the same as our name, i.e. more liberty and less government. Sometimes however, hypocrisy is so glaring it cries out for attention; this is one of those times.

The Democratic Party’s annual gig is the Jefferson-Jackson Day Dinner, so named because they regard Jefferson and Jackson as the founders of the Democratic Party. To say it is pregnant with hypocrisy is an understatement. Let’s review the historical record of Jefferson and Jackson as it pertains to slavery and Native Americans.

Both Jefferson and Jackson owned slaves. Jefferson was the only founder and president who did not free his slaves – even upon his death.
The cruelty of Jackson’s Indian removal policy (“The Trail of Tears“) is legion and remains an enduring stain on American national honor.
Jackson was ruthless in the Creek War and in later wars against the Choctaws, Cherokees, Chickasaws and Seminoles. His nickname was “Indian killer“.
Jackson was in command while his troops butchered Indian women and children following battles or massacres; some called it (and still call it) genocide.
Jackson was an aggressive defender of slavery; this was in sharp contrast to Washington, Madison and Monroe all of whom regarded it as a moral evil.
Jackson supported the spread of slavery to the territories and he once publicly called opponents of slavery “monsters“.

Contrast the above with recent events where obsequious Democrats caterwauled over perceived transgressions regarding confederate flags on license plates or flying on state capitol grounds – which incidentally were first put there by Democrat governors. Unctuous Democrat leaders used terms such as bigotry, racism and oppression while calling for boycotts of any events held in South Carolina or any other offending state.

Republicans have their annual event, the Lincoln-Douglass Day Dinner, named after Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass. Imagine if the Republicans’ annual dinner was called the Custer-Duke Day Dinner after George Custer and David Duke? The yowling and mewling of Democrats and their media sycophants would be incessant.

Democrats are considering a name change but can’t find prominent Americans of Democratic persuasion to use in place of Jefferson and Jackson. It seems they consider all potential historical figures imperfect and can’t find even one who passes through every politically correct filter extant. They may just abandon people’s names altogether and go with something anodyne like the “Fairness and Equality Day Dinner”.

Since all historical figures now are imperfect to progressives, where does it all end? Can we judge a person as a whole giving credit for accomplishments while being less judgmental about flaws that were not considered as such contemporaneously but only now in today’s uber-correct political atmosphere? If the present trend continues there will be no statues or portraits left standing or hanging anywhere in America.

For now, let’s simply savor the juicy hypocrisy of the most politically correct and intolerant group in America naming its greatest honor for unreformed slaveholders, racists, genocidal Indian fighters and the perpetrator of the infamous Trail of Tears.

Tag: Democratic Party