Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

At least three or four US presidents owe their election to fraud.

Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

By: George Noga – January 24, 2021

America experienced back-to-back election debacles in 2016 and 2020. In 2016 it was failure to accept the results due to alleged foreign interference. In 2020 it was fraudulent voting. Recounts accomplish little if they merely recount votes including illegal ones. Voter fraud has a lengthy provenance in the USA and there have been at least three presidents elected fraudulently – four, if you include Rutherford Hayes.

Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland in 1888 due to fraud in Harrison’s home state of Indiana. Following a massive pubic outcry, Indiana’s election laws were reformed and in 1892 Cleveland won by carrying Indiana. LBJ won his 1948 senate seat by 87 votes – the final 200 of which were all for Johnson, in the same ink, same handwriting and in alphabetic order; otherwise, LBJ would not have been president. Finally, the 1960 election was stolen for JFK due to rampant fraud in Illinois.

Stealing elections is as American as apple pie. In my high school, the administration changed the results of student elections if they didn’t like the outcome, even for homecoming queen. In college, student government vote fraud was rampant. In my fraternity, the election for sweetheart was rigged so the fraternity president’s girl friend won – even though she was disliked. My psychiatrist friends tell me 90% of their patients’ problems revolve around money, sex and/or power. Politics involves all three of these (in spades), so cheating in elections should be no shock to anyone.

During colonial times, people voted aloud to have their votes recorded. In the early days of the republic, there were no secret ballots and vote buying was commonplace. After secret ballots were introduced in the 1880s, voting declined by about 20% due to the absence of vote buying. By 1892, 38 states had adopted secret ballots.

If Americans no longer trust elections, we are no better than banana republics. Polls show large swaths of Americans believe there was rampant fraud in the 2020 election. If this continues, it will lead to violence and anarchy. If cheating is rewarded, it will increase. Unless we restore integrity to our elections, we will reap the whirlwind. The following reforms must be instituted to restore credibility to our elections.

  1. The entire process must be 100% transparent including to poll watchers.

  2. There must be an audit trail that matches every ballot to an eligible voter.
  3. Absentee ballots must be requested individually by registered voters.
  4. Voter rolls must be purged often of deaths, non-deliverable addresses, etc.
  5. Everyone must have government issued photo ID to vote – no exceptions.
  6. All votes must be received no later than when the polls close.
  7. Ban mail-in voting, the greatest source of potential cheating.
  8. Early in-person voting allowed no more than 7 days before an election.
  9. No vote harvesting – only one vote (or family) at a time to be turned in.
  10. Make it a felony to violate these laws and vigorously prosecute offenders.

A huge majority of Republicans, a majority of independents and a significant cohort of Democrats believe there was widespread fraud in 2020. It doesn’t matter whether they are right – the fact they credibly believe it is a serous problem. We must not only end voter fraud, we must prevent even the appearance of, or the potential for, fraud.

Without integrity and transparency, our elections will become like those of Russia, Venezuela or Belarus. Today, it is the Democrats who believe they win from failing to reign in fraud. But if our elections are to be decided opaquely with no ironclad curbs on cheating, it will become a race to the bottom and there will be no winners.

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Incredibly, MLLG has come to possess a document from the year 2121 containing the

definitive history of climate change written 100 years from now. Our next post presents

that history and you will know the outcome of mankind’s struggle with climate change.

More Liberty Less Government – –

The State of the World is Better Than You Think

Human nature causes us to measure progress against utopia rather than against the past.

The State of the World is Better Than You Think

By: George Noga – January 17, 2021

This is our first post of 2021 and we are starting out on a positive note. Most people believe the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Recent polls show only 6% of Americans think the world is getting better. Many tacitly assume that for humanity to be better off, everything must be getting better for everyone everywhere. Reality never works that way; some unfavorable trends coexist with many more positive ones. Moreover, many people tend to measure progress against utopia rather than the past.

Humans are hard wired to be pessimistic as we evolved from risk-averse ancestors. When our Paleolithic forebears heard a noise in the bushes, it could be caused by either the wind or a predator. Those who assumed it was the wind did not live to be our ancestors. We therefore are descended from people who tended to worry a lot.

We worry about, inter alia, the Covid pandemic, climate change, politics, civil unrest, the environment, crime and terrorism. Following are some key megatrends showing that Homo sapiens, far from perdition, really is getting better and better all the time. Note: much of the data used herein are from a Cato Institute book: Ten Global Trends.

Eradication of extreme poverty: In the past 200 years the world economy grew 100 fold, while population grew only 18 fold. If the same growth rate is maintained, the economy will grow 10 fold by 2100, while population will be about the same as today.

Natural resources are plentiful and becoming more so: Over the last 40 years, out of 50 commodities studied, 45 of them are less expensive (adjusted for inflation) meaning they are more plentiful relative to demand for them. The average price for all 50 commodities fell 35%, while during that same period wages grew 80%. We have never run out, or are in any danger of running out, of any nonrenewable resource!

Population soon will peak and then decline: Several demographic studies agree that human population will peak soon after mid century and then begin to decline such that in 2100 population will be close to its present level and continue to decrease thereafter. This should go a very long way toward a solution for climate change.

Abundance of food with less land: The world food supply is now 3,000 calories per day per person, an increase of 36% in 60 years despite a burgeoning population. This level exceeds the USDA’s recommended daily caloric intake. Except in war zones, famines are ancient history. More and more land (1 million square miles) has been reclaimed for nature due to use of GMOs and more efficient farming practices.

End of wars between countries: In the past 50 years, wars between nations have been rare and those that did occur resulted in much fewer casualties; this is true even though we went from 50 countries in 1946 to about 200 today. This trend is attributable to increases in democracy, greater wealth and intertwined trading patterns.

All around better world: In recent years democracies increased from 31% to 49%, while autocracies fell from 39% to 11%. In the past 100 years the chances of someone dying from a natural disaster have declined by 99%. Virtually every metric extant evidences that we live in a far safer world and it is getting better all the time.

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As this year progresses, MLLG will address many of the problems America and the world face. It is wise however to begin 2021 with some perspective, so that our problems do not cause us to lose sight of the big picture, i.e. the enormous progress humanity has made and continues to make – contrary to the beliefs of 94% of Americans. Whenever you hear a rustling in the bushes, it is not always a lion.

Our January 24th post deals with the integrity of elections in the USA.

More Liberty Less Government – –

Roosevelt and Churchill: Christmas Eve 1941

Christmas Eve 1941 radio address to the world by FDR and Churchill

Roosevelt and Churchill: Christmas Eve 1941

By: George Noga – December 13, 2020

In addition to our regular fare of politics, economics, current issues and human interest, we publish mostly forgotten speeches that are particularly poignant and/or timely. In our Washington’s birthday post of 2/23/20 (on our website), we published his 1783 speech to Congress returning his commission – arguably the most consequential speech ever delivered. Today we provide the (lightly edited for length) remarks of Roosevelt and the unedited remarks of Churchill delivered at the December 24, 1941 lighting of the national Christmas tree, which coincided with Churchill’s visit to America.

President Franklin Roosevelt’s Speech

“There are many sincere and faithful men and women in America who ask themselves this Christmas: How can we light our trees? How can we give gifts? How can we meet and worship with love and uplifted hearts in a world at war, a world of fighting, suffering and death? How can we pause, even for a day, even for Christmas Day, in our urgent labor of arming a decent humanity against the enemies which beset it?

How can we put the world aside, as men and women put the world aside in peaceful years, to rejoice in the birth of Christ? These are natural – inevitable – questions in every part of the world which is resisting the evil thing. Even as we ask these questions, we know the answer. There is another preparation demanded of this nation beyond the preparation of weapons of war. There is demanded also the preparation of our hearts; the arming of our hearts. And when we make ready our hearts for the labor and suffering which lie ahead, then we observe Christmas Day as we should.

The year 1941 has brought upon our nation a war of aggression by powers dominated by arrogant rulers whose selfish purpose is to destroy free institutions. They would thereby take from the freedom-loving people of the earth the hard-won liberties gained over many centuries. The new year of 1942 calls for the courage and resolution of old and young to help to win a world struggle to preserve all we hold dear.

Therefore, I hereby appoint the first day of the year 1942 as a day of prayer, of asking forgiveness for our shortcomings, of consecration to the tasks of the present and of asking God’s help in days to come. We need his guidance that his people may be humble in spirit but strong in the conviction of the right, steadfast to endure the sacrifices and brave to achieve a victory of liberty and peace. Our strongest weapon in this war is the conviction of dignity and brotherhood of man which Christmas signifies.

It is in that spirit, and with particular thoughtfulness of those, our sons and daughters, who serve in our armed forces on land and sea, near and far – those who serve for us and endure for us – that we light our Christmas candles now across this continent from one coast to the other on this Christmas Eve. We have joined with many other nations and peoples in a great cause. Millions of them have engaged in the task of defending good with their life-blood for months and years.

One of their great leaders stands beside me. He and his people in many parts of the world are having their Christmas trees with their little children around them, just as we do here. He and his people have pointed the way in courage and sacrifice for the sake of little children everywhere. And so I am asking my associate and old friend to say a word to the people of America – Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of Great Britain.”

Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s Speech

“I spend this anniversary and festival far from my country, far from my family; yet I cannot truthfully say that I feel far from home. Whether it be the ties of blood on my mother’s side, or the friendships developed here over many years, or the commanding sentiment of comradeship in the common cause of great peoples who speak the same language, who kneel at the same altars and, to a very large extent, pursue the same ideals, I cannot feel myself a stranger here. I feel a sense of unity and fraternal association which, when added to the kindliness of your welcome, convinces me that I have a right to sit at your fireside and share your Christmas joys.

This is a strange Christmas Eve. Almost the whole world is locked in deadly struggle, and with the most terrible weapons science can devise, the nations advance on each other. Ill would it be for us this Christmastide if we were not sure that no greed for the land or wealth of any people, no vulgar ambition, no morbid lust for material gain at the expense of others, had led us to the field.

Here, in the midst of war, raging over all the lands and seas, creeping nearer to our hearts and homes, here amid all the tumult, we have tonight the peace of the spirit in each home and in every generous heart. Therefore, we may cast aside, for this night at least, the cares and dangers which beset us, and make for the children a night of happiness in a world of storm. Here, then, for one night only, each home throughout the English-speaking world should be a brightly-lighted island of happiness and peace.

Let the children have their night of fun and laughter. Let the gifts of father Christmas delight their play. Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted pleasures before we turn again to the stern tasks and the formidable years that lie before us, resolved, that by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world. And so, in God’s mercy, a happy Christmas to you all.”


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Black Lives Matter – Squandered Opportunity

Black Lives Matter has not accomplished anything that matters to black lives.

Black Lives Matter – Squandered Opportunity

By: George Noga – December 6, 2020

This post also contains a segment at the end pertaining to the Georgia US Senate election on January 5, 2021. It includes provocative inside information; don’t miss it!

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By almost every measure, BLM is a huge success. It has become a household name, dominated the news, raised (extorted) money from corporate America, won over the media, intimidated politicians, bowled over professional sports, insinuated itself into a nation of 330 million people and imposed its will on huge swaths of America. There is no organization in memory that has made such an impression in as short a time.

BLM incepted and promoted the defund the police movement and had it adopted in progressive venues throughout the nation. Its name is painted prominently in outsized lettering outside the White House, Trump Tower and on streets throughout America. Its name and slogans are on the jerseys of professional sports teams, painted in NFL end zones, on NBA courts and on MLB diamonds. Streets are renamed in its honor. It has raised untold millions of dollars. It has removed statues and murals not to its liking. It spread to many other countries where it has been emulated. Whew!

Yet despite these putative accomplishments, BLM has failed to improve black lives. What if, instead of defunding police, BLM advocated for police reforms and even for more policing in high-crime areas? What if BLM stood for prison reform instead of for ending incarceration? What if BLM lobbied to end the war on drugs? What if BLM promoted opportunity zones instead of socialism? What if BLM embraced self help and eschewed victimhood? However, of all BLM’s missed opportunities, none is more tragic than school choice. What if BLM had demanded universal school choice?

BLM is a tragedy because it accomplished so little when so much more was possible. It squandered a platinum opportunity to matter to black lives. It focused on the 14 unarmed African-Americans killed last year by police instead of on the 10 million black kids whose future is being snuffed out in wretched, failed government schools. If BLM had demanded universal school choice, it could have changed tens of millions of black lives forever. Instead, its name is painted in end zones no one will remember in a few years time. As Shakespeare put it, “(BLM) is but a walking shadow, a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more.”

BLM is a tragedy because, after its proverbial fifteen minutes of Warholian fame, there will be no benefit to black lives. Blacks will still inhabit the same crime-infested dysfunctional neighborhoods, albeit with reduced policing due to defunding the police. Black children will still attend the same broken government schools. Blacks will still be governed by the same pandering politicians pursuing the same failed progressive policies. Black families will still face the same desperate economic prospects. In the end, BLM will not have accomplished anything that matters to black lives.

Georgia US Senate Runoff Election – January 5, 2021

The US Senate is 50-48 Republican. Two Georgia seats are decided January 5, 2021. If both go Democrat, the senate would be 50-50 with Kamala Harris breaking ties. This could loose a phantasmagoria of horrors: abolishing the filibuster, packing the senate by making DC and PR states, granting citizenship to illegal aliens, opening the borders, voting for 16 year olds, national mail-in voting, gun control, abolishing the Electoral College and, the granddaddy of them all, packing the Supreme Court.

Like most Americans, you probably took solace in the recent statement by Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) that he would not vote to end the filibuster. Even if Democrats win both Georgia seats, they can’t pass any of their agenda, including the above list of horrors, without Manchin’s vote to end the filibuster. Manchin’s statement seemed to greatly lessen the urgency for Republicans to win the Georgia election. BINGO!

I recently participated in an off-the-record Zoom meeting that included a prominent Washington insider whose name you would instantly recognize. He vigorously asserted that Manchin’s statement was disingenuous and intended solely to help Dems win the Georgia election by making it appear the stakes were lessened. He unequivocally stated that Manchin (who he knows) never has broken with the Dems when his vote mattered and never would do so in the future. Moreover, even if Manchin wanted to break ranks, the Democratic leadership has so much dirt (corruption) on him that he couldn’t do it.

Watch for our special Christmas posting on December 13th.
More Liberty Less Government – –

The Real Climate Science Deniers Are Not Who You Think

Climate change alarmists believe many things directly contradicted by science.

MLLG Continuing Analysis of Climate Change . . . .

The Real Climate Science Deniers Are Not Who You Think

By: George Noga – November 29, 2020

It is an immutable fact that progressives always do what they accuse their opponents of doing; this is especially true of climate change. Climate alarmists accuse so-called deniers of ignoring the science, but they are the true science deniers. See see our recent post of 10/18/20 “Covid and Climate Change”; it is on our website:

The most consequential lie climate alarmists promulgate is that there are actions the USA and the developed world can take that will meaningfully reduce temperature rise. This claim is contradicted by science. If the entire developed world stopped all emissions and fossil fuel use immediately, and continued doing so for the rest of the century, it would devastate the economy and impoverish billions. However, per the UN-IPCC, the impact on temperature in the year 2100 would be 1/2 of one degree Celsius. If just the USA stopped all emissions, the effect is 2/10ths of one degree.

There are no actions the USA and the developed world can take that will reduce temperature rise to any meaningful extent.

There are many other anti-science myths promoted by climate alarmists; the principal ones are described below; they are not listed in any particular order.

 Extreme weather: It is contrary to science to assert extreme weather has increased. From 1900-1958 Florida had 18 major hurricanes; from 1959 to today there were 11. Again per the UN, the same is true of cyclones, floods, tornadoes, storms and droughts throughout the entire world. Weather related insurance claims, adjusted for inflation, also have not increased. In fact, not only has there not been an increase in either the number or severity of extreme weather events, there has been a significant decrease!

  • Rising temperature kills: While true that increased heat results in added deaths, such an increase is dwarfed by the vastly fewer deaths resulting from less cold.

  • Fires in California and Australia: CA and AUS have a long, predictable history of cyclical droughts. This has been exacerbated by Byzantine environmental regulations and government mismanagement. Climate alarmists in AUS blame the conservative Morrison government, but AUS emits only 1.3% of the planet’s carbon. If Australia went to zero carbon emissions, it would not even budge the global thermostat.

  • Nuclear energy: Nuclearphobia is worse than a lie; it is a damned anti-science lie. Nuclear is, by far, the single best way for humanity to reduce carbon. It is a damned lie because it reveals climate alarmists really have other agendas. But instead of building more nuclear plants, we are tearing them down in a gross overreaction to Fukushima by nuclearphobes. One of my favorite mantras is: more people died at Chappaquiddick than at Three Mile Island and Fukushima (from radiation) combined.

  • It is an existential crisis: This is another outright lie contradicted by the UN-IPCC. Nowhere does any reputable scientific body assert that the existence of humanity is threatened. To the contrary, many scientists believe adaptation is the best response; if it truly were an existential crisis, adaptation would not be a rational response.

  • Green pork: Climate alarmists tout electric vehicles, windmills, bio-fuels and solar panels. These all are ineffective, feel-good, symbolic and pork-laden projects that waste many trillions while beguiling people into believing they make a difference.

  • Paris Accord: The Paris Accord on Climate Change also is maskirovka, intended to hoodwink people into believing it matters. It is a hollow symbol signifying nothing.

  • Population growth: Greens scaremonger about population growth, but the science is that population decrease is the most positive factor to arrest temperature increase. Current trends are for global population to peak around 2065 and then to decrease close to today’s level by 2100 – and then continue to plummet after that. A smaller and declining population should stabilize carbon emissions close to today’s level.

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So, who are the true science deniers when it comes to climate change? This should not come as a surprise because progressives are truth challenged and anti-science about many other things including: when life begins, organic foods, school choice, guns and crime, GMOs and socialism. Most recently, they reject the science about Covid-19 and economic lockdowns and school openings. Progressivism itself is an anti-science lie.

Next on December 6th, we take on Black Lives Matter
More Liberty Less Government – –

Antifa: What You Need to Know




Antifa is short for anti fascist; nonetheless, it is really a fascist movement.

Antifa: What You Need to Know

By: George Noga – November 22, 2020

There is great confusion about Antifa; very few understand what it is. Is it simply an idea as the New York Times and Joe Biden assert? Or, is it something truly menacing as Donald Trump claims and as many Americans have concluded? Because of all the confusion, controversy and Antifa’s prominence in the news, it is time to provide readers an update since we last blogged about Antifa three years ago on 11/12/17.

The confusion begins with its name. Antifa, short for anti fascist, is in fact a fascist movement. Antifa describes itself as a left-wing movement combating fascists, racists, neo-Nazis and white supremacists. Antifa’s leaders describe themselves variously as anarchists, Marxists, communists, Maoists and socialists. They espouse vague euphonic ideas such as social justice, democratic socialism and economic democracy. But the ideas Antifa wants you to believe in are rooted in fascism.

Antifa is a lie; despite its name, it is a fascist movement.

The original fascist movements in Germany, Austria and Italy were far left parties. Hitler and Mussolini were national socialists. Nazi is short for national socialist. Fascists in all these countries opposed reactionaries and capitalists; sound familiar? Every prominent European fascist, from Hitler and Mussolini down, was a socialist.

Fascism is on the far right of the political spectrum and Marxism is on the far left. However, when the political spectrum is seen as a circle, communism and fascism converge in what is called the lunatic fringe, i.e. they become one and the same. To the average person, it makes little difference whether he/she is governed by far right fascists or far left Marxists. Either way there is no political or economic liberty and all are vassals of an all-powerful state. Life itself is cheap, as movements on the far left and far right (really the same) slaughtered over 100 million people in our lifetime.

Where is the Threat Today – From Neo-Nazis or Antifa?

Antifa and its acolytes at the New York Times, Washington Post and in the media would have you believe the greatest threat America faces is from fascists, Neo-Nazis and white supremacists. Were they not serious, it would be funny. The threat to America from such groups is non-existent. No one in flyover land takes them seriously and they are viewed as pathetic buffoons. They are soundly condemned by every person and group on the right and have no political, media or academic support whatsoever.

Neo-Nazis and white supremacists would be hard pressed to muster 100 people for a rally; if they did, 70 of them would be government informants. Nationally, you could fit all of them inside a high school gymnasium. The leftist media keep these groups in the news solely as a foil and as a means to tar their opponents with terrible epithets.

In contrast, the Antifa threat is real. They enjoy support of progressive politicians, media and academia, who refuse to condemn even violent Antifa actions, under the rubric that they are “mostly peaceful”. They have occupied parts of American cities and advocate direct violent action, believing you have to break some eggs to make an omelet. They believe communism was a noble experiment and they will get it right next time. They even call themselves Stalinists or Maoists; imagine if a far right group called themselves Hitlerists. Who do you believe, the media or your own lyin’ eyes?


Here’s what you need to know about Antifa. Despite its name, it is a fascist movement with fascist ideas and it advocates violence. However, it makes little difference whether it is on the left or the right of the lunatic fringe – if Antifa has its way, your life and liberty are forfeit. The horrors promulgated by earlier fascists were in the past, whereas the great danger from Antifa and today’s fascists lies in the future. Antifa is all about power and not about ideas. Besides, they already know all the answers to everything; hence, debate is unnecessary. They believe the ends justify the means.

Next on November 29th, we reveal the real science deniers in America.

Political Football . . . . The Politicization of Sports in America

Sports are now politicized along with science, education, pronouns and even the weather.

Political Football . . . .

The Politicization of Sports in America

By: George Noga – November 15, 2020

In my youth I faithfully listened on the radio to the baseball game of the day with Dizzy Dean and Buddy Blattner. I even listened to all the broadcasts of our local “Class D” minor league team, including (surreptitiously) night games when I was supposed to be asleep. I was a loyal fan of our state NFL teams. Later in life, I had season tickets for many years to our local NBA team – the Orlando Magic. Because of the politicization of professional sports (except golf – so far), I no longer will watch any of them or even read about them in the newspaper. They have lost me for life.

“Sport has the power to change the world. It has the power to inspire. It has the power to unite people in a way little else does. It speaks to youth in language they understand. Sport can create hope, where once there was only despair. It is more powerful than governments in breaking down racial barriers. It laughs in the face of discrimination.”

The above words were spoken by Nelson Mandela at the 1995 Rugby World Cup in South Africa, where the all white South African team was competing for a world title. He was trying to heal his country; after being incarcerated for 25 years, he saw sports as an antidote to racial bias and animus. Today, the hard left, along with its camp followers and useful idiots in the media, is using sports to promote racial division. They are using Black Lives Matter and political correctness to sow dysfunction. Instead of using sports to unite and to bridge racial divides, as Mandela so eloquently did, they are using sports to politicize, to radicalize and to divide Americans.

Women’s sports have been sacrificed on the altar of political correctness.

Sports generally have been a positive force for racial comity beginning with Jesse Owens, Joe Lewis and Jackie Robinson – all of whom became American icons and heroes. Today they are being replaced by LeBron James and Colin Kaepernick, who openly disrespect our flag and our national anthem. Under the cloak of wokeness, professional sports is paying obeisance to BLM by displaying political slogans on uniforms, on the courts and fields and even by playing the BLM anthem. It has become impossible simply to watch games without constant in-your-face politics.

Death Knell for Women’s Sports

Politicization of sports has impacted women the most. Women’s sports are tainted due to political correctness and transgenderism. Politicization of male athletes is mostly limited to a few professional sports and has not yet infiltrated high school or college. All women’s sports, professional, amateur, high school and college, are transformed by transgender women (born male), who are winning most events. From age 15 onward, girls are unable to compete – due entirely to politicization and political correctness.

Transgender women out compete biological women due to much higher testosterone. But if non-transgender women take testosterone injections to level the playing field, in a Catch-22 situation, they are disqualified for taking performance enhancing drugs. In another Catch-22, putting transgender women on testosterone blockers is considered a human rights violation. We have sacrificed women’s sports on the altar of political correctness, which dictates that male and female are merely social constructs.


Americans turn to sports to escape the fever of daily life and that specifically includes politics. We do not watch sports to be indoctrinated in the latest PC or BLM diktat. Sports fans want to watch the game, not a discourse about systemic racism from rich, coddled athletes. Like Nelson Mandela, Americans of good faith believe sports should unite people and that it laughs in the face of all types of discrimination.

Next on November 22nd, we deconstruct Antifa.

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Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment

Although Biden may have won the presidency, the biggest losers are progressives. The election shattered their dream of transforming the US into a socialist Utopia .

Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment

By: George Noga – November 8, 2020

I did not make my customary fearless forecast for the election because there were too many unknowns and unknowables and I believed it was too close to call. Nonetheless, the analysis in my November 1 post was right on the mark; you may judge for yourself by going to our website: Voters chose a corrupt and non compos mentis but genial charlatan over a virtuoso with an annoying persona. Mass defections among suburban women exceeded Trump’s historic gains among non-white voters.

Democrats were the biggest losers because the election reaffirmed that America in 2020 remains solidly a center-right country. Voters throughout America (except on the coasts) rejected the progressive agenda. This was evidenced by the: (1) tightness of the presidential race despite large scale defections by never-Trumpers; (2) Dem losses by huge margins in key senate races even though they outspent opponents by humongous amounts; (3) surprising GOP gains in the House; (4) Republicans winning all contested state legislatures and hence controlling the upcoming redistricting process; and (5) historic shifts among non-white voters defecting from the Democratic Party.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the shifts in black and Hispanic voting. Trump’s share of the black vote increased by 50% – from 8% to 12%. In a normal election, this would be enough to swing some key states from blue to red – and this trend is likely to expand. The GOP grew its Latino vote, including Cubans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, and Puerto Ricans. In 95% Mexican-American Zapata County Texas, Trump increased his vote by 36 points (58%) over 2016; in nearby Starr County, he increased it a whopping 55 points (135%). The same was true throughout the Rio Grande Valley. All over America identity politics lost badly. Democrats crying “racist” not only failed, but backfired.

A Way Too Early Look at 2022 and 2024

In the 2022 midterm elections, the party in power historically loses seats in Congress. After their gains this year, the GOP is within easy striking distance of taking over the House of Representatives and likely will do so. In the Senate, the GOP must defend 22 seats while the Dems defend only 12. Normally, this would be a hard slog, but based on American political history, the GOP might even be able to pick up a few seats.

Looking to 2024, Biden is a one-term president; the chances of completing his term are well under 50% – due to cognitive and/or corruption issues. Should Kamala Harris become president and be the nominee, this will be a Dem disaster. Whether Kamala or someone else, the Dems are likely to nominate a leftist incendiary for president as they do not have centrist candidates – although that could change in four years. Without the never-Trump vote and with far less non-white votes, the Dems’ chances appear bleak. Moreover, in 2024 they must defend 23 senate seats to only 10 for Republicans.

Packing the Supreme Court and the Senate

Although “packing” appears less likely given the probable composition of the senate, I wanted to share some analysis about packing that you won’t see elsewhere.

Packing the Courts: I have never seen this argument in print or heard it anywhere, but there is a strong case that packing the Supreme Court is unconstitutional because it violates the separation of powers clearly established in the Constitution. If Dems pack the court with the clear intent of turning it into a de facto adjunct of the Democratic Party, that clearly abolishes the separation of powers and eviscerates the Constitution.

For the record, there are other less nefarious forms of court packing. For example, the sprawling Ninth Circuit (Circus) US Court of Appeals, which covers much of the western US, could be split into two or three parts and 25 new appellate judges added.

Packing the Senate: This would be done by admitting Puerto Rico and DC as states. There are serious legal problems with making DC a state, specifically the 23rd Amendment. If the Dems really want to admit DC and PR, I have a proposal for them. Make DC a state but add back to its territory the northern Virginia counties taken away from it in 1847. Removing those heavily democratic counties would turn the remainder of Virginia into a solid red state. If they wish to make PR a state, they can add Baltimore to DC, making the rest of Maryland a deep red state. This would be an equal trade, i.e. four new Democrat senate seats for four new GOP senate seats.

The left also would like to grant statehood to Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands. Interestingly, there is historical precedent for packing the senate. In 1889 Republicans, in control of government, split the Dakota Territory in two (North and South) to increase the number of Republican senators.

Next on November 15th, we address the politicization of sports in America.

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Election 2020: Civilization or Anarchy?

Will voters choose an amiable witch doctor over a real doctor with a poor bedside manner?

Election 2020: Civilization or Anarchy?

By: George Noga – November 1, 2020

In 1939 Winston Churchill quipped Russia was “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. As I try to make sense of Tuesday’s election, I understand how he felt. I have labored mightily to try and present readers with my fearless forecast. However, due to many factors, chiefly surging Covid, ersatz polling, the Biden scandal, urban anarchy and unprecedented voter turnout, we are sailing in terra incognita.

How Biden Could Win

Biden enjoys a significant, but definitely surmountable, lead nationally (7 points in the Real Clear Politics average) and clings to slim leads in most battleground states. He is running 1-2 points ahead of 2016. Polls are more reliable this close to the election as those that were engaging in suppression have shifted to protecting their reputations for accuracy. If the RCP poll average is anywhere near accurate, Biden will be favored.

Biden is surpassing expectations with three cohorts of voters: (1) Republicans and independents who may have voted for Trump in 2016; (2) suburban voters, particularly women; and (3) seniors. Each of these groups has been turned off by Trump’s persona and tweeting. If Biden’s strength holds up in these cohorts, he will be favored.

How Trump Could Win

Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by 2-3 points. Polls undercount his support by 2 to 4 percentage points due to underrepresentation of Republicans in the polls and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their preference to pollsters. This means polls showing Biden leading by up to 7 points (such as the RCP average) may actually be about even. Then there is the margin of error, which could go in either direction.

I continue to place much stock in the outcome of recent elections in Canada, France, Germany and Australia – all conservative victories. I place the most stock in the UK election where the Tories won a landslide victory not captured by any polling.

Trump is vastly outperforming expectations among two key demographics – blacks and Hispanics. Trump is garnering 15% of the black vote (30% in places) – double that of 2016. Without the defection of swaths of suburban women, such a surge of African-American support would have been dispositive for an historic Trump victory.

Enthusiasm clearly favors Trump. In 2016 the relative size of crowds proved a good predictor of Trump’s victory; it is happening again. Trump is drawing crowds into the tens of thousands; even Donald Jr. is vastly outdrawing Biden. Then there is the stark contrast between a high-energy president frenetically criss-crossing the country while his opponent rarely leaves his basement. Finally, incumbents enjoy a big advantage.

The Unknowns and Unknowables

There are unknowns and unknowables: (1) voter turnout is on pace to shatter records, but who is turning out and where; (2) shifts in voter sentiment in the final few days are undetectable and can swing elections; (3) the coronavirus surge is hard to gauge as it cuts in two directions; older voters blame Trump and younger ones oppose lockdowns; (4) urban anarchy (Philadelphia) undoubtedly influences voters; (5) problems with mail-in ballots – including fraud; (6) impact of the Biden influence peddling scandal, including Hunter’s laptop and Bobulinsky revelations; and finally, (7) Joe’s non compos mentis which, despite keeping Joe in his basement, is plainly visible to voters.

Civilization or Anarchy?

It comes down to whether key cohorts, such as suburban women and seniors, prefer an amiable but doddering witch doctor, chanting pallid incantations, to a real doctor with a poor bedside manner. It comes down to whether distaste of Trump’s persona is reason enough for voters to turn our beloved republic over to a party antithetical to the Constitution, history, traditions, core values and identity of America. Will voters, in a fit of Trumpian pique, vote against their beliefs, ideals, values and interests? In the end, everything comes down to a choice between civilization or anarchy.

Most of the normal guideposts are broken and there are too many unknowns and unknowables to make my customary fearless forecast. The election remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. As I write this on October 31st, I can palpably feel the election tightening. The late momentum is all in Trump’s favor and the critical question is – will it be enough. Fasten your seat belts for a wild ride!

Next on November 8th, we offer our reflections on the election.

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Halloween and Extreme Risk Aversion

Progressives want to infantilize all Americans – not just the children.

Halloween and Extreme Risk Aversion

By: George Noga – October 25, 2020

America has become pusillanimous and insanely risk intolerant; nothing demonstrates this better than Halloween. What once was a carefree, fun-filled evening, when kids roamed the neighborhood unaccompanied, has morphed into a phantasmagoria of perceived horrors. Heaven forbid that Halloween should be even a little bit scary. Following are ten of the orgy of safety warnings recently gleaned from the media.

  1. Make sure you buy only inflammable (sic) costumes but have your kid practice stop, drop and roll in case it catches fire anyway.
  2. Avoid loose-fitting costumes so your child doesn’t trip or fall.
  3. Inspect your kid’s route in advance so there are no sidewalks in disrepair.
  4. Don’t use masks that limit your child’s range of vision.
  5. Test face paint a few days in advance to make sure there is no reaction.
  6. Inspect every treat before allowing your child to eat anything.
  7. If you apply nail polish, make sure the windows are open and ventilated.
  8. Affix information tags to your children; better yet, use GPS trackers.
  9. If dark outside use reflective tape and give kids glow sticks.
  10. All makeup should be non toxic and tested well in advance.

The infantilization of Halloween should be no surprise; it is but one manifestation of the nanny state America has become. Amtrak won’t allow unaccompanied minors under 13 and those under 16 only under rigorous preconditions. In Japan, 8 year olds routinely travel alone. In some places in America, children are not allowed to walk to school; those under 14 can’t be left home alone and legally can’t blow up a balloon. Parks have removed see-saws, monkey bars and merry-go-rounds. OSHA ordered day care centers to saw off all tree branches below 8 feet to prevent kids climbing trees.

Infantilization of children is child abuse – pure and simple.

When I was young, we walked miles to school in first grade with no crossing guards. We played baseball with real spikes and ate raw hamburger; we owned real guns and carried them openly in residential neighborhoods. We hitchhiked and were not paranoid about strangers. We always kept score; only winners received trophies and there was but one valedictorian. We were paid to babysit as early as age 11. We operated power saws unsupervised in shop class. Halloween was entirely on our own.

There is a war on childhood in America. The marketplace caters to parental paranoia by selling leashes for children and alarms that sound if the kid wanders ten feet away. GPS devices to perpetually track kids’ whereabouts are on the market. One company sells “Piggyback Rider”, a backpack designed to carry kids up to age 7 and 60 pounds, nearly old enough to ride a train unaccompanied in Japan and other countries.

Infantilization of children is child abuse – pure and simple. It hobbles their emotional development; they experience academic problems; and they have poor social skills. They are averse to responsibility and often fail as adults. Progressives’ real goal however, is not just to infantilize children – but all Americans. They aim to turn American into a nanny state with government as the nanny and all of us as children.

Happy Halloween 2020 from More Liberty – Less Government!

Next, on October 25th, is our final Election 2020 Update – Don’t miss it!
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