Category: Election 2020

Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment

By: George Noga – November 8, 2020

I did not make my customary fearless forecast for the election because there were too many unknowns and unknowables and I believed it was too close to call. Nonetheless, the analysis in my November 1 post was right on the mark; you may judge for yourself by going to our website: www.mllg.us. Voters chose a corrupt and non compos mentis but genial charlatan over a virtuoso with an annoying persona. Mass defections among suburban women exceeded Trump’s historic gains among non-white voters.

Democrats were the biggest losers because the election reaffirmed that America in 2020 remains solidly a center-right country. Voters throughout America (except on the coasts) rejected the progressive agenda. This was evidenced by the: (1) tightness of the presidential race despite large scale defections by never-Trumpers; (2) Dem losses by huge margins in key senate races even though they outspent opponents by humongous amounts; (3) surprising GOP gains in the House; (4) Republicans winning all contested state legislatures and hence controlling the upcoming redistricting process; and (5) historic shifts among non-white voters defecting from the Democratic Party.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the shifts in black and Hispanic voting. Trump’s share of the black vote increased by 50% – from 8% to 12%. In a normal election, this would be enough to swing some key states from blue to red – and this trend is likely to expand. The GOP grew its Latino vote, including Cubans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, and Puerto Ricans. In 95% Mexican-American Zapata County Texas, Trump increased his vote by 36 points (58%) over 2016; in nearby Starr County, he increased it a whopping 55 points (135%). The same was true throughout the Rio Grande Valley. All over America identity politics lost badly. Democrats crying “racist” not only failed, but backfired.

A Way Too Early Look at 2022 and 2024

In the 2022 midterm elections, the party in power historically loses seats in Congress. After their gains this year, the GOP is within easy striking distance of taking over the House of Representatives and likely will do so. In the Senate, the GOP must defend 22 seats while the Dems defend only 12. Normally, this would be a hard slog, but based on American political history, the GOP might even be able to pick up a few seats.

Looking to 2024, Biden is a one-term president; the chances of completing his term are well under 50% – due to cognitive and/or corruption issues. Should Kamala Harris become president and be the nominee, this will be a Dem disaster. Whether Kamala or someone else, the Dems are likely to nominate a leftist incendiary for president as they do not have centrist candidates – although that could change in four years. Without the never-Trump vote and with far less non-white votes, the Dems’ chances appear bleak. Moreover, in 2024 they must defend 23 senate seats to only 10 for Republicans.

Packing the Supreme Court and the Senate

Although “packing” appears less likely given the probable composition of the senate, I wanted to share some analysis about packing that you won’t see elsewhere.

Packing the Courts: I have never seen this argument in print or heard it anywhere, but there is a strong case that packing the Supreme Court is unconstitutional because it violates the separation of powers clearly established in the Constitution. If Dems pack the court with the clear intent of turning it into a de facto adjunct of the Democratic Party, that clearly abolishes the separation of powers and eviscerates the Constitution.

For the record, there are other less nefarious forms of court packing. For example, the sprawling Ninth Circuit (Circus) US Court of Appeals, which covers much of the western US, could be split into two or three parts and 25 new appellate judges added.

Packing the Senate: This would be done by admitting Puerto Rico and DC as states. There are serious legal problems with making DC a state, specifically the 23rd Amendment. If the Dems really want to admit DC and PR, I have a proposal for them. Make DC a state but add back to its territory the northern Virginia counties taken away from it in 1847. Removing those heavily democratic counties would turn the remainder of Virginia into a solid red state. If they wish to make PR a state, they can add Baltimore to DC, making the rest of Maryland a deep red state. This would be an equal trade, i.e. four new Democrat senate seats for four new GOP senate seats.

The left also would like to grant statehood to Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands. Interestingly, there is historical precedent for packing the senate. In 1889 Republicans, in control of government, split the Dakota Territory in two (North and South) to increase the number of Republican senators.

Next on November 15th, we address the politicization of sports in America.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Will voters choose an amiable witch doctor over a real doctor with a poor bedside manner?

Election 2020: Civilization or Anarchy?

By: George Noga – November 1, 2020

In 1939 Winston Churchill quipped Russia was “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. As I try to make sense of Tuesday’s election, I understand how he felt. I have labored mightily to try and present readers with my fearless forecast. However, due to many factors, chiefly surging Covid, ersatz polling, the Biden scandal, urban anarchy and unprecedented voter turnout, we are sailing in terra incognita.

How Biden Could Win

Biden enjoys a significant, but definitely surmountable, lead nationally (7 points in the Real Clear Politics average) and clings to slim leads in most battleground states. He is running 1-2 points ahead of 2016. Polls are more reliable this close to the election as those that were engaging in suppression have shifted to protecting their reputations for accuracy. If the RCP poll average is anywhere near accurate, Biden will be favored.

Biden is surpassing expectations with three cohorts of voters: (1) Republicans and independents who may have voted for Trump in 2016; (2) suburban voters, particularly women; and (3) seniors. Each of these groups has been turned off by Trump’s persona and tweeting. If Biden’s strength holds up in these cohorts, he will be favored.

How Trump Could Win

Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by 2-3 points. Polls undercount his support by 2 to 4 percentage points due to underrepresentation of Republicans in the polls and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their preference to pollsters. This means polls showing Biden leading by up to 7 points (such as the RCP average) may actually be about even. Then there is the margin of error, which could go in either direction.

I continue to place much stock in the outcome of recent elections in Canada, France, Germany and Australia – all conservative victories. I place the most stock in the UK election where the Tories won a landslide victory not captured by any polling.

Trump is vastly outperforming expectations among two key demographics – blacks and Hispanics. Trump is garnering 15% of the black vote (30% in places) – double that of 2016. Without the defection of swaths of suburban women, such a surge of African-American support would have been dispositive for an historic Trump victory.

Enthusiasm clearly favors Trump. In 2016 the relative size of crowds proved a good predictor of Trump’s victory; it is happening again. Trump is drawing crowds into the tens of thousands; even Donald Jr. is vastly outdrawing Biden. Then there is the stark contrast between a high-energy president frenetically criss-crossing the country while his opponent rarely leaves his basement. Finally, incumbents enjoy a big advantage.

The Unknowns and Unknowables

There are unknowns and unknowables: (1) voter turnout is on pace to shatter records, but who is turning out and where; (2) shifts in voter sentiment in the final few days are undetectable and can swing elections; (3) the coronavirus surge is hard to gauge as it cuts in two directions; older voters blame Trump and younger ones oppose lockdowns; (4) urban anarchy (Philadelphia) undoubtedly influences voters; (5) problems with mail-in ballots – including fraud; (6) impact of the Biden influence peddling scandal, including Hunter’s laptop and Bobulinsky revelations; and finally, (7) Joe’s non compos mentis which, despite keeping Joe in his basement, is plainly visible to voters.

Civilization or Anarchy?

It comes down to whether key cohorts, such as suburban women and seniors, prefer an amiable but doddering witch doctor, chanting pallid incantations, to a real doctor with a poor bedside manner. It comes down to whether distaste of Trump’s persona is reason enough for voters to turn our beloved republic over to a party antithetical to the Constitution, history, traditions, core values and identity of America. Will voters, in a fit of Trumpian pique, vote against their beliefs, ideals, values and interests? In the end, everything comes down to a choice between civilization or anarchy.

Most of the normal guideposts are broken and there are too many unknowns and unknowables to make my customary fearless forecast. The election remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. As I write this on October 31st, I can palpably feel the election tightening. The late momentum is all in Trump’s favor and the critical question is – will it be enough. Fasten your seat belts for a wild ride!

Next on November 8th, we offer our reflections on the election.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

If the choice devolves into civilization versus anarchy, bet on civilization.

Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go

By: George Noga – July 26, 2020

The electoral waters have become muddied since my last election update on February 9th, which you may read at www.mllg.us. The coronavirus pandemic and its collateral economic damage, along with the unrest following the George Floyd tragedy, have introduced new and hard-to-fathom variables into the electoral calculus. The intensity of events we are now experiencing is unprecedented and my crystal ball is very cloudy. Nonetheless, I believe readers are due an election 2020 update – so here it is.

In the primaries, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg et.al. (remember them?) ran as leftist incendiaries. Biden won because he campaigned as a moderate who pledged normalcy. Then, against the clear wishes of Democrat primary voters, he tacked sharply left, embracing ideas from Sanders, AOC and rioters in the streets. Meanwhile, Trump picks fights with Bubba Wallace and tweets support for the confederate flag.

There has been an unambiguous change since my last update. In February Trump was favored; in an election held today, he would be an underdog. However, the election is exactly 100 days and 100 news cycles away and far from over. I must dutifully remind readers that Carter led Reagan well into October; Dukakis led Bush by nearly 20 points and no one gave Trump much of a chance right up until 9:00 PM on election day.

In my analysis, one data point stands out above the others: real people casting real votes in real elections counts far more than polls or pundits. In 2016, the UK Brexit election (per Bill Clinton) foretold Hillary’s defeat. Every recent major election, Germany, France, Canada, Australia and the UK, resulted in defeats for the liberal side. In particular, the UK election looms large and may foreshadow our own election.

Parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democrat Party are undeniable. In the December 2019 UK election, the British working class revolted, rocking the UK to its foundation. Labour lost seats it had held for over 100 years; no polls or pundits saw it coming. People everywhere have similar desires. Voters in Northern England and the Midlands are no different than voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They all want economic security but they also desperately crave cultural security.

It could come down to a choice between civilization and anarchy

In my prior analysis, I wrote the African-American vote was a mega wild card with the potential to transform American politics. Polls had Trump’s approval rating with blacks in the mid 30% range and I was prepared to call the election for Trump based solely on that metric. Today, how the black vote ultimately will shake out is not knowable.

In addition to the strong anti-liberal momentum from recent elections (especially in the UK) and the final denouement of the black and Latino vote, other factors exerting the most influence on the election, in rough order of importance, are as follows.

1. Performance in the debates (Biden is not likely to debate)
2. The pace of economic and jobs recovery
3. The coronavirus situation
4. Biden gaffes and episodes of incoherence
5. The results of the Durham investigation

It has come to this. The incumbent is self-centered, braggadocious and repulses many independent voters with his boorish behavior. Nonetheless, he has an impressive record of accomplishments. The challenger is a serial plagiarist and career politician with nothing to show for 45 years of public office. He secured the nomination as a moderate but now embraces the most radical policies of his party’s firebrands and says he will be a transformational president. And by the way, he appears to be non compos mentis.

Biden is ahead but the election is 100 days away – an eternity in politics. I am not sure how relevant the usual analysis and metrics will be in this election. It could come down to voters having to choose between civilization and anarchy. If that happens, I would bet on civilization. MLLG will publish another election update in October.