Election 2020 Update – 40 Days Remaining

Insights and analysis not found elsewhere: suppression polling and Biden’s fitness

 

Election 2020 Update – 40 Days Remaining

By: George Noga – September 23, 2020

This is a special midweek Election 2020 Update. Readers have clamored for MLLG’s take on two issues. First, our analysis of polling that shows Trump trailing. The Real Clear Politics average has him down 6-8 points. The second most frequently asked questions relate to Biden’s fitness. Both those issues are addressed herein. We will publish a final Election 2020 Update November 1st, two days before the election. Visit our website (www.mllg.us) to view prior election updates dated 2/9/20 and 7/20/20.

Suppression Polling

Nearly all polls, including those conducted by media, academia and major polling organizations, are neither independent nor intended to accurately inform you where the presidential race stands. They are ersatz polls, doctored up to discourage Trump supporters. These so-called suppression polls intentionally understate Trump support. Their theory is that Trump voters, believing the election lost, will become discouraged and fail to vote. Following is our MLLG guide for understanding the polls.

First, Trump lost the 2016 popular vote by 2+ points but still won. Second, polls understate Trump’s support by a minimum of 2 points due to overrepresentation of Democrats and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their true preference to pollsters. Third, add another point (minimum) to Trump to offset the effect of suppression. The total is a minimum of 5 points that Trump’s prospects for victory are understated.

Let’s postulate that polls show Biden 54% and Trump 46%, i.e. Biden is up 8 points. Now, shift 2 points from Biden to Trump to account for the understated support for Trump and overstated support for Biden; the adjusted poll is Biden 52%, Trump 48%. Next, shift 1 point from Biden to Trump to account for suppression; the results become Biden 51% and Trump 49%. But remember, Trump can lose the popular vote by 2 points and still win; hence, the final adjusted poll results show the race a dead heat. Of course, the margin of error – usually 3-5 points – must also be considered.

Polls always tighten before the election as pollsters, protecting their reputations for accuracy, transition away from suppression polling.

National polls are of less value than state and demographic polls. Currently, Trump has a realistic chance to flip Minnesota and Nevada from 2016 but may give back Wisconsin. Trump is substantially outperforming 2016 among black and Hispanic voters but is hemorrhaging support among suburban voters – particularly women. The debates could prove dispositive, especially in light of persistent doubts about Biden’s fitness. The effect of the recent Supreme Court opening still is an unknown. All things considered, the race appears very tight – despite what the polls show.

Questions About Joe Biden’s Fitness

I take no pleasure writing about Biden’s mental health, but there it is – in plain sight for all to see. It is the 900-pound gorilla in the room. Even his most ardent supporters no longer can ignore his many episodes of incoherence. With an assist from Occam’s Razor, the most likely (and perhaps only) explanation is that: (1) Biden has dementia; (2) he is being treated by a physician; (3) he is taking medication; and (4) his very limited public appearances are carefully managed to avoid a meltdown.

The explanation offered above is consistent with many known facts. Trump has called for drug tests prior to the debates as he believes Biden is on medication. In fact, an injection of a stimulus drug before the debates can ameliorate the effects of dementia. Biden is tightly scripted in public and relies on earbuds and teleprompters to answer questions from friendly media lobbing softball questions. As caregivers know, those with dementia have good days and bad days. On his bad days, Biden’s staff shields him from public view and shuts down the campaign. The complicit media ask no questions.

It will be exceedingly difficult to mask Biden’s condition and to avert disaster for 40 more days, which include three presidential debates. All it will take is one brief episode at the wrong time to sink his campaign. And even some of Biden’s good days are problematic. Then there is Kamala Harris waiting in the wings.


Next up: I reveal my decision about buying firearms.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

President Biden or President Trump . . . Whoever Wins Should Not Really Matter

Who is President of the United States should have little effect on our lives.

President Biden or President Trump . . .

Whoever Wins Should Not Really Matter

By: George Noga – September 20, 2020

For America’s first 200 years, whoever was elected president was largely irrelevant because he had little power over our lives or that of our neighbors. This is as our founders intended. The Constitution grants government only a few limited and enumerated powers and contains many checks and balances against the concentration and abuse of power. Government’s purpose was to protect our liberty. Who was on the school board, mayor or governor mattered much more than who was president.

Until a few decades ago government stayed mostly inside its constitutional box; whoever held office made little difference in our lives. Presidents exercised limited power and vetoed unconstitutional laws. Congress did not cede power to armies of unelected bureaucrats and the judiciary was largely apolitical. States jealously guarded their rights as part of a federalist republic. The media held government accountable. Ordinary citizens wielded power to convene grand juries and to nullify unpopular laws. Finally, Americans regarded liberty as a priceless jewel and voted accordingly.

How did we get from a Constitution of limited government to one that dictates which rest room we use and how much water is in our toilets? How did we get to a president who declares he will stop the rise of oceans? How did we get to a congress that passes unread 2,000 page laws in the dead of night? How did we get to a hyper-political judiciary that conjures new rights from thin air? How did we get to millions of bureaucrats and 200,000 pages of regulations? How did we get to neutered states, a statist media and a populace that meekly accepts all these horrors?

The answers are both sad and predictable. Per Jefferson, “It is the natural order of things for government to gain and liberty to yield”. Capitalism has made Americans so rich we forgot the source of our liberty and prosperity and it has sown the seeds of its own destruction. Per Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, Americans have transcended basic needs and achieved material prosperity. This allows people the security to indulge in risk-free political witchcraft. Any society with psychologists for its pets is one that has badly lost its perspective. Like Esau, we sold our birthright for a bowl of stew.

Unfortunately, who we elect president in November will profoundly affect our lives. Presidents have transmogrified into kings, wielding enormous unchecked power unthinkable for the first 200 years of our republic. Americans once saved most of their passion for religion; now politics has largely supplanted religion. We view elections as contests between good and evil rather than as ones of policy. Everything in our lives has become politicized, including science, religion, news and education. We have come to regard those with whom we disagree as not merely wrong, but as devils.

American democracy is caught in a hyper-partisan death spiral. Winning at all costs threatens our constitutional foundation and the rule of law. The quest for immediate electoral victory is coming at the cost of long-term stability, such as by eliminating the filibuster, which has stood as a bulwark for moderation for nearly 200 years. The dehumanization of our political adversaries sanctions increasingly extreme behavior.

Our liberty is a priceless jewel of eternal and inestimable value. However, its setting has become badly tarnished. We must dedicate ourselves to restoring its original luster and grandeur to that worthy of the gem of incalculable value it holds. If we succeed, one day in the future who becomes president will again have little effect on our lives.


Next on September 27th, I reveal my decision about buying firearms.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Will the 2020 Election Be America’s Last?

The progressive plan to permanently control the United States

Will the 2020 Election Be America’s Last?

By: George Noga – September 6, 2020

Should Democrats take full control of government in the 2020 election, they plan to hold onto power in perpetuity; they intend for 2020 to be the last election in the United States. Americans will continue to vote in show elections just as they do in Russia, Belarus and Cuba, but the results will be preordained. Following are the elements of the progressive plan for permanent control of the United States of America.

Statehood for DC, PR, Others: They will make DC and Puerto Rico states immediately, resulting in 4 new Dem senators and 6-7 new electoral votes. Republicans would then need 53 of the original 100 seats to control the senate. If necessary, Dems will also make Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands and the Northern Marianas states.

Pack Supreme Court: Progressives will add as many new justices as necessary to gain a majority. This can be accomplished in a matter of days by simple majority votes.

Abolish Electoral College: This requires a constitutional amendment, but a packed Supreme Court could green-light it anyway, paving the way for a popular vote.

National Popular Vote: With the Electoral College kaput, there would be a national popular vote including vote by mail, vote harvesting and massive fraud in deep blue states. The federal government would wrest control of elections from the states.

Abolish Filibuster: New laws could be enacted in mere hours; any wacky progressive idea could become law without checks, balances or guardrails.

This is not idle speculation. Democrats publicly support every

one of the policies listed herein – perhaps except social credits.

Massive Expansion of Voting: Citizenship for illegal aliens could add upward of 20 million votes; open borders would add millions more. Progressives will enable felons, including those incarcerated, to vote. They will expand the franchise to nearly 10 million 16-17 year olds. All these cohorts will vote Democrat by humongous margins.

Abolish Freedom of Speech: So-called hate speech laws will be enacted to criminalize communications that offend liberal sensibilities. Straight out of George Orwell, progressives will use the threat of hate speech to stifle opposing political speech.

Eliminate School Choice: All forms of school choice, including charters and vouchers, will be abolished. Government schools, run by unions and bureaucrats, will dutifully turn our (now voting) children into automatons indoctrinated in progressive dogma.

Social Credits: The capstone of progressive control will be a system of universal basic income (UBI) linked to social credits – such as now being used by the Chicoms. The amount of a person’s social credits (based on obeisance to progressive diktats) determines the amount of UBI, access to health care, education and other benefits.

If progressives control government, all the above can be placed in effect immediately. They could add 40 million new voters – heavily Democrat. Progressives publicly advocate for every one of the above policies, except maybe social credits. Even if only some of the policies are enacted, it would be enough to turn the USA into Venezuela or Zimbabwe. The 2020 election could very well be the last election in America!


Next on September 13th is our inimitable take on Constitution Day
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go

 

If the choice devolves into civilization versus anarchy, bet on civilization.

 

Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go

By: George Noga – July 26, 2020

The electoral waters have become muddied since my last election update on February 9th, which you may read at www.mllg.us. The coronavirus pandemic and its collateral economic damage, along with the unrest following the George Floyd tragedy, have introduced new and hard-to-fathom variables into the electoral calculus. The intensity of events we are now experiencing is unprecedented and my crystal ball is very cloudy. Nonetheless, I believe readers are due an election 2020 update – so here it is.

In the primaries, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg et.al. (remember them?) ran as leftist incendiaries. Biden won because he campaigned as a moderate who pledged normalcy. Then, against the clear wishes of Democrat primary voters, he tacked sharply left, embracing ideas from Sanders, AOC and rioters in the streets. Meanwhile, Trump picks fights with Bubba Wallace and tweets support for the confederate flag.

There has been an unambiguous change since my last update. In February Trump was favored; in an election held today, he would be an underdog. However, the election is exactly 100 days and 100 news cycles away and far from over. I must dutifully remind readers that Carter led Reagan well into October; Dukakis led Bush by nearly 20 points and no one gave Trump much of a chance right up until 9:00 PM on election day.

In my analysis, one data point stands out above the others: real people casting real votes in real elections counts far more than polls or pundits. In 2016, the UK Brexit election (per Bill Clinton) foretold Hillary’s defeat. Every recent major election, Germany, France, Canada, Australia and the UK, resulted in defeats for the liberal side. In particular, the UK election looms large and may foreshadow our own election.

Parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democrat Party are undeniable. In the December 2019 UK election, the British working class revolted, rocking the UK to its foundation. Labour lost seats it had held for over 100 years; no polls or pundits saw it coming. People everywhere have similar desires. Voters in Northern England and the Midlands are no different than voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They all want economic security but they also desperately crave cultural security.

It could come down to a choice between civilization and anarchy

In my prior analysis, I wrote the African-American vote was a mega wild card with the potential to transform American politics. Polls had Trump’s approval rating with blacks in the mid 30% range and I was prepared to call the election for Trump based solely on that metric. Today, how the black vote ultimately will shake out is not knowable.

In addition to the strong anti-liberal momentum from recent elections (especially in the UK) and the final denouement of the black and Latino vote, other factors exerting the most influence on the election, in rough order of importance, are as follows.

  1. Performance in the debates (Biden is not likely to debate)
  2. The pace of economic and jobs recovery
  3. The coronavirus situation
  4. Biden gaffes and episodes of incoherence
  5. The results of the Durham investigation

It has come to this. The incumbent is self-centered, braggadocious and repulses many independent voters with his boorish behavior. Nonetheless, he has an impressive record of accomplishments. The challenger is a serial plagiarist and career politician with nothing to show for 45 years of public office. He secured the nomination as a moderate but now embraces the most radical policies of his party’s firebrands and says he will be a transformational president. And by the way, he appears to be non compos mentis.

Biden is ahead but the election is 100 days away – an eternity in politics. I am not sure how relevant the usual analysis and metrics will be in this election. It could come down to voters having to choose between civilization and anarchy. If that happens, I would bet on civilization. MLLG will publish another election update in October.


Our next post on August 2nd, announces significant changes to our blog.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The Issues of 2020: Wealth and Other Taxes

Who would do the most good with the money, billionaires like Bill Gates or Elizabeth Warren?

 

The Issues of 2020: Wealth and Other Taxes

By: George Noga – February 16, 2020

           In this election year, we periodically will analyze the presidential race; we also will address many of the issues. This first issue-oriented post deals with the proposed wealth tax. Future posts will address, inter alia, UBI (universal basic income), MMT (modern monetary theory), income inequality, gun violence and socialism. Although the wealth tax gets much of the attention, Democratic Party candidates have proposed a veritable smorgasbord of new and increased taxes; following is a compilation.

##  New annual wealth tax of up to 6% on all assets

##  Raising top marginal income tax rate to 69.2% (75% increase)

##  Increasing corporate tax rate to 35% from 21% (67% increase)

##  Expand Medicare tax .9% plus a host of new Medicare taxes

##  Raising the estate tax to 77%  from 40% (93% increase)

##  New carbon tax on fuel, energy and utilities

 

##  Hiking the payroll tax by 2.4 points (15% increase)

##  Taxing capital gains as ordinary income (up to 175% increase)

##  Removing all caps from the payroll tax (15% increase)

##  Taxing unrealized capital gains each year

##  Imposing a VAT (value added tax) on the entire US economy

##  Surtax of 7% on corporate income exceeding taxable income

 

##  New exit tax of 40% of assets for giving up citizenship

##  Surtax of 10% on all income above $1 million

##  Applying the 14.8% payroll tax to investment income

##  Raising the top dividend/cap gain tax to 52% (160% increase)

##  New tax of up to .5% on financial transactions

##  Repeal existing business expensing and 20% pass through

 

         I never before have seen a comprehensive list of all proposed new and increased taxes; that’s why I invested the time to compile this list for our readers. Democrats want to raise (most by 50% to 100%) virtually every existing tax, plus add huge new ones like a wealth tax, value added tax, carbon tax, financial transactions tax and exit tax. The cumulative effect of these taxes would instantly wreck any economy.

Wealth Taxes: Failed – Unconstitutional – Immoral

          Where to begin? Twelve affluent European countries once imposed wealth taxes; today only three remain. Most abandoned taxing wealth because of myriad problems that resulted in vastly lower tax collections than anticipated. Problems included: (1) measuring wealth; (2) changes in taxpayer behavior; (3) high cost of collecting the tax; (4) taxpayer flight; 70,000 millionaires left France before it repealed its wealth tax; (5) a brain drain; and (6) distortion of savings and investment decisions.

       A wealth tax is almost certainly unconstitutional. The Constitution (Article I, Section 9, Clause 4) severely restricts the ability of the federal government to lay taxes and bans “direct taxes“; it required a constitutional amendment in 1913 before an income tax became legal. Courts likely would construe a wealth tax as a direct tax.

         A US wealth tax would encounter the same six problems Europe experienced and would collect only a tiny fraction of the amount projected. In addition, there would be serious new problems including: (1) raising the cost of capital; (2) discouraging capital investment and job creation; (3) raising interest rates; (4) harming stocks, 401(k)s and pensions; and (5) shifting money from the private to the public sector.

        Consider one example. A Silicon Valley entrepreneur, whose business is valued at $6 billion, would pay a wealth tax of $320 million (6% on excess over $1 billion and 2% on first billion). He would need to sell $1.1 billion (nearly 20% of his company) in order to pay $630 million in capital gains tax and $150 million in California tax to have $320 million left over to pay the wealth tax. And when he dies, there is a 77% estate tax. Poof, in five years it is gone! If he invested an additional $1,000 and earned 6% ($60), he would pay $35 in federal tax, $8 in California tax and $60 in wealth tax. He would pay total taxes of $103 on $60 of income – a tax rate of 172%.

      The strongest argument against a wealth tax is a moral one. It penalizes work, thrift, risk taking, and investment – behaviors that should be lauded and encouraged. A wealth tax represents quadruple taxation; government taxing the same funds (1) when originally earned; (2) as business taxes, dividends or capital gains; (3) as a wealth tax; and (4) as an estate tax. Wealth taxes not only are a failure – they are immoral!


Next on February 23rd, we reprint the most consequential speech ever given. 
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

MLLG Analysis of the 2020 Election

We dissect the tectonic forces (and one mega wild card) that will determine the election.

MLLG Analysis of the 2020 Election
By: George Noga - February 9, 2020

           This is our first 2020 election report; political analysis is a popular feature with readers because we have been been incredibly prescient and perspicuous in the past including Trump’s surprise 2016 victory. New readers should go to www.mllg.us to see my bio and political bona fides. This post addresses the tectonic forces that will determine the winner – beginning with those favoring Trump.

African-American Vote: I was among the very first to discern the shift in black voting patterns; read my blogs of  2/12/17 and 6/2/19. This mega wild card has the potential to radically transform this election and, with it, American politics. Polls have Trump’s approval rating among blacks in the mid-thirty percent range; this is astounding.

In 2016 Trump got 8% of the black vote; if he increases this to just 12% it makes it hard for Dems to win certain key states; 16% makes victory all but certain while 20% or more is a landslide. In addition to winning a higher share of the black vote, Trump benefits if, as in 2016, many blacks don’t vote. Moreover, the blexit movement (black exodus from Democratic Party) also includes Latinos and other minorities. MLLG fearlessly forecasts Trump will substantially increase his share of the black vote!

UK/Other Elections: An immutable principle is that real people voting in real elections count more than polls and pundits – even in elections held in other countries. Recent elections in Germany, France, Canada and Australia all have resulted in defeats for liberals. Bill Clinton, a savvy politician, foresaw Hillary’s loss after the original 2016 Brexit vote. The December UK election casts a large shadow, as parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democratic Party are incandescently apparent.

The revolt of the working class that rocked the UK affects us. If disaffected Americans in the Rust Belt turn out in force, Trump wins. People everywhere have similar desires. Voters in northern England are no different than voters in Michigan,  Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; they want economic security but also crave cultural security. Democrats in the US could end up losing a culture war they didn’t know they were fighting.

The Economy: Economics trumps all else. Every econometric model shows Trump winning handily given a strong economy. Voters always reward a politician who makes them better off. The economy in 2020 is as good as it gets and the bonanza is broadly shared, Democrat protestations notwithstanding. Even if the economy weakens, it will remain strong enough in November to provide Trump a powerful tailwind.

Incumbency: In the past 127 years, only two elected presidents lost head-to-head elections. Americans always vote for the fool they know over the devil they don’t.

Other Forces Favoring Trump:  We are at peace, at least relatively. In 2016 Trump was outspent over two to one; this time he is flush with cash. His rallies routinely draw tens of thousands of enthusiastic supporters, crowds Dems can only dream about. Every independent legal betting site has Trump a heavy favorite. His opposition appears weak, woke, discombobulated and out of touch with working Americans.

 

Forces Favoring the Democrats

Suburban Women: This cohort deserted Trump en mass in the 2018 midterm election. If they do so again in 2020, this will provide a huge boost for the Democrats.

Trump Personna: Many voters have developed an aversion to Trump’s personal style including his tweets, braggadocio and insensitivity. It is an open question as to the extent this personal animus will prevail over the positive forces noted supra.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

         The forces favoring Trump clearly overwhelm those favoring the Democrats, but eight months is many eternities in politics and anything can (and will) happen between now and November. The tectonic forces identified herein are not ephemeral or transitory. Nonetheless, it is wise to bear in mind that Carter led Reagan well into October and that Dukakis once led Bush by nearly 20 points. We will continue our inimitable analysis of the 2020 election as the year progresses. Stay tuned.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
On February 16th, we dissect the proposed wealth and other new taxes.
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

The UK Election and Its Portent for America

“Working class voters want more than economic security; they want cultural security too.”

The UK Election and Its Portent for America

By: George Noga – December 20, 2019

         This special posting was necessitated by the stunning results of the UK election. Most polls and pundits projected a hung Parliament; none foresaw the electoral tsunami that resulted in an 80-seat Conservative majority, the revolt of the working class, the crumbling of Labour’s “red wall” in northern England or the collapse of the Liberal Party. Seats that Labour had held for over 100 years were lost to the Tories. It is impossible to overstate the consequences of the UK election to our own in 2020.

      The June 23, 2016 UK Brexit vote (see our post of 6/28/16 on our website: www.mllg.us) heralded the seismic electoral shift that elected Trump later that year. Bill Clinton, one of the savviest politicians of our era, said he foresaw Hillary’s loss upon seeing the Brexit results. Afterward, he attributed Hillary’s loss to the same forces that drove Brexit and said he had felt apprehensive ever since the Brexit vote.

         A key MLLG political principle is that real people voting in real elections count much more than polls or pundits – even in elections held in foreign countries. Recent votes in France, Australia, Germany and elsewhere foretold the UK vote. But what is most critical to our own election are the reasons Brits voted as they did. No one has explained these electoral forces better than Paul Embery, a Labour Party activist, who wrote an incisive analysis immediately after the election. It is excerpted below.

Is This the End for Labour? by Paul Embery (lightly edited)

      “The British working class was not, in the end, willing to vote for a London-centric, youth-obsessed party that preached the gospels of liberal cosmopolitanism and class warfare. For the red wall to have crumbled so spectacularly underlines the sheer scale of the failure. Labour’s meltdown comes as no surprise to anyone paying attention who wasn’t blinded by ideology or fanaticism. We sounded alarm bells earlier this year following local elections when Labour hemorrhaged support in working class communities across the north and Midlands. But the woke liberals didn’t listen. 

 

         They believed constant hammering about economic inequality would get Labour over the line. They failed to grasp working class voters desire something more than economic security; they want cultural security too. They want politicians to respect their way of life and their sense of place; to elevate real world concepts like work, family and community over nebulous constructs like diversity, equality and inclusivity. By immersing itself in the destructive creed of identity politics and championing policies such as open borders, Labour alienated millions across provincial Britain. In the end, Labour lost a culture war that it didn’t even know it was fighting. 

 

        So where now? Labour must marry demands for economic justice with those of cultural stability. It must reconnect with voters in post-industrial towns who believe Labour indifferent to their plight. It must rekindle belonging built on shared values and common cultural bonds. It must respect those who oppose large-scale immigration, want a tough justice system, feel proud to be British, support the role of the family at the center of society, prefer a welfare system based on reciprocity rather than entitlements and who do not obsess about multiculturalism and transgender rights.” 

 

What This Means for the US 2020 Election

      The parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democratic Party are incandescently obvious. Without question, the revolt of the working class that rocked the UK election will play an outsized role in ours. If culturally disaffected Americans in the Rust Belt turn out in force, Trump could win big. The UK election was real people casting real votes in a real election and they made quite a loud statement! People everywhere have similar desires and voters in northern England are no different than voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and throughout the Rust Belt.

        The electoral sentiments revealed by UK voters confer a huge, but not dispositive, advantage to Trump and create a presumption, ceteris paribus, he will win. However, there also are other powerful electoral forces at work and the election is over 10 months away. We will write in depth about the 2020 election in February or March.

       Of course, the Democrats also have seen the results of the UK election and it should have scared the bejesus out of them. It is an open question how they respond. Will they cling to the phantasm that working Americans are eager for revolutionary social change, or will they take to heart the analysis of Paul Embery? Working class British voters categorically rejected the woke liberal agenda; so will American voters.


Next scheduled post is January 12th, but watch for a possible special posting sooner. 
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

Democratic Party 2020 Presidential Candidate Positions

Democratic Party candidate positions for 2020 election; we can’t make this stuff up.
Democratic Party 2020 Presidential Candidate Positions
By: George Noga – June 23, 2019

        The first debate among Democratic Party presidential candidates is this week. MLLG has compiled a compendium of the positions publicly advocated by declared candidates. It is presented for our readers in no particular order. Sic loquitur pro se.

1. Payment of reparations for slavery
2. New wealth tax of 3% per year on assets
3. Late term abortion – up to the moment of birth
4. Restoration of voting rights for released felons
5. Impeachment of President Trump
6. Raising the top personal income tax rate to 70% (from present 37%)
7. Refusal to repudiate anti-Semitism by Democrat members of Congress
8. Free college tuition for all
9. Medicare for all (It’s not really Medicare; it’s Medicaid.)
10. Raising the corporate tax rate to 35% (from present 21%)
11. Abolition of the Electoral College
12. Amnesty for illegal aliens
13. No gun rights for released felons (See number four supra.)
14. Capping interest rates on all credit cards
15. Packing the Supreme Court by adding up to four new justices
16. Federal jobs guarantee to everyone
17. Minimum wage of $15 per hour
18. Infanticide: “Make the baby comfortable while deciding whether to kill it.”
19. Impeachment of Justice Kavanaugh
20. Voting rights for felons still incarcerated (including Dzhokhar Tsarnaev)
21. Citizenship (voting rights) for illegal aliens
22. Voting for 16-year olds
23. Green New Deal including no air travel or cows and one car per family
24. Abolish ICE – US Immigration and Customs Enforcement
25. Deep cuts to defense spending
26. Abolishing senate filibusters
27. Single payer government health care for all
28. Federal licensing and control of all large corporations
29. Strict new gun control measures including confiscations
30. Federalizing all voter registration
31. Abolishing or changing the method of representation in the US Senate
32. Ending all private health insurance and insurance companies
33. Reinstituting the Iran nuclear deal
34. Statehood for DC, PR, VI, Guam: 8 new senators; 14 new electoral votes
35. Tearing down existing walls on our southwest border with Mexico
36. Raising the estate tax rate to 77% (from present 40%)
37. Rejoining the Paris Climate Accord
38. Raising the payroll tax by 2.4 points – equivalent to 15%
39. Means testing Social Security
40. Taxing capital gains as ordinary income
41. Removing all caps from the payroll tax
42. Taxing unrealized capital gains each year
43. Jailing corporate executives for regulatory violations
44. Cash distribution of $1,000 per month to everyone (UBI)
45. Forgiveness of all student loan debt – $1.5 trillion
46. Federal payment to teachers of $315 billion over 10 years
47. Outlawing all state right-to-work laws
48. Increase fuel economy standards for all cars
49. Halt all energy leases on federal land
50. Spending $5 trillion (unspecified) to control emissions
51. Opposition to nuclear energy (cleanest energy we have)
52. Creation of new Americorps – to plant trees on marginal land
53. Prohibiting the private practice of medicine (Medicare for America bill)
54. Federal licensing of all firearms – must be renewed every 5 years
55. Abolition of payday loans – by mandating ultra-low interest rates
56. Have the USPS (postal service) make low interest loans to consumers
57. Imposition of a VAT – value added tax on the entire US economy
58. Added 7% corporate tax on reported income higher than taxable income
59. Free government provided health care for all illegal aliens
60. Legalization of recreational marijuana throughout the United States
61. Require companies to obtain equal pay certificate from the US EEOC
62. Dictate national paid leave policy for the entire private sector
63. Mandate federal preclearance for states to pass any new abortion laws
64. Federal taxpayer funding of abortions (repeal of Hyde Amendment)
65. Breakup Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon
66. New exit tax of 40% of assets for any American giving up citizenship
67. Federal government pays all rent for anyone in excess of 30% of income
68. New promises are being added at the rate of 2-3 each and every week

Next on June 30 is our special Independence Day posting; don’t miss this one!
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

Enduring Principles of American Politics

The first and foremost principle is that America is a center-right country. 
Enduring Principles of American Politics
By: George Noga – May 26, 2019

           Judging by our feedback, readers can’t seem to get enough of our non-partisan political analysis. Many readers have requested a posting that contains a complete listing of MLLG’s principles of American politics. This post fulfills that request.

 

          Presidential elections are influenced by, inter alia, parties, candidates, events, issues, ads and debates. Based on American political history and tradition, MLLG has identified eight enduring principles that exert an outsized effect in determining who wins; such principles usually transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. These principles provide you a strong foundation to better understand the 2020 election.

1. America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or McGovern-like outcome. This remains true in 2020; all the prattle about democratic socialism is limited to about 20% of the population. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 75 years were Carter and Clinton, southern state governors, and Obama, who ran as a centrist, was a rare political talent and faced insipid competition.

2. Economics trumps all else. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid.” was exactly on target. If the economy in 2020 remains robust, it creates a powerful tailwind for the incumbent. Every econometric model shows Trump winning handily if the economy remains strong. Voters always reward a politician who makes them better off.

3. There are no permanent majorities. Issues, positions, alliances and demographics continually shift and minority parties skillfully adapt. Movements of all types get subsumed into larger groups. This principle is not relevant to the 2020 election.

4. Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton spent $1.2 billion to Trump’s $600 million in 2016 and still lost. Any serious candidate will get the necessary funding. Spending money has diminishing returns and, at some point, negative returns – a case in point being Huffington’s 1994 CA senate race. Money will not be a factor in 2020.

5. Incumbency is powerful. In the past 126 years, only 2 elected presidents lost head-to-head elections. Americans always vote for the fool they know over the devil they don’t. This principle, ceteris paribus, confers great advantage to Trump in 2020.

6. The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. With only the exceptions of FDR and the post Civil War era, we must go back 225 years to see any party in power for more than 12 consecutive years. This is not a factor for 2020.

7. Define yourself before your opponent does; as a corollary, define your opponent before he does. It is essential to define who you are with the electorate; failure to do so lets your opponent define you. Like a good joke, defining yourself and your opponent must contain some truth to be effective. Trump is a master of this principle and he employed it to great effect in the 2016 primaries and general election.

8. Polls and approval ratings have limited value. The value of polls lies in identifying issues and sentiment more than who is ahead or behind. Polls today are notoriously inaccurate and undercount Trump support by 3-5 points; no major poll predicted a Trump victory in 2016. Don’t get too worked up over early polls, or any polls for that matter. Remember that many Americans don’t seriously focus on elections until after Labor Day and often don’t decide until weeks, or even days, before an election. Carter led Reagan well into October, yet Reagan ended up winning 44 states.

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       As you watch the 2020 election drama unfold, there is one wild card with the potential to utterly disrupt politics as usual. I am referring to the “blexit” movement, i.e. the black exit from the Democratic Party. MLLG was among the very first to identify this trend in our February 12, 2017 post (see it on our website: www.mllg.us). Next week’s post is devoted 100% to blexit. This is a post you won’t want to miss!


Blexit – the black exodus from the Democratic Party – is next up on June 2nd.
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

Election 2020: Analysis and Perspective

MLLG shares its inimitable analysis and perspective about the 2020 election.
Election 2020: Analysis and Perspective
By: George Noga – February 28, 2019

          This is our first Election 2020 posting. Periodically, between now and November 2020, we will offer analysis and perspective about candidates, issues and the electoral process, with insights not often found in the mass media. Readers have been requesting such coverage, especially in light of our on-the-money analysis of the 2016 Trump election. Check out our political bona fides on our website: www.mllg.us.

Analysis: Why Candidates Run Despite No Realistic Chance to Win

  • Running for VP:  They are positioning themselves for vice president or for a high level appointed position. There is no direct way to run for VP or a cabinet slot, so they run for president hoping a strong showing on the national stage gets them there.

 

  • Running for the future: They don’t expect to succeed this go-round but, with a strong showing, can be a frontrunner in the next election. Running gets them vetted and gains them valuable experience in fund raising and presidential politics.

 

  • Hoping for a miracle: In most election cycles, for unforeseeable reasons, a dark horse catches fire. An example is Herman Cain in 2012, who ran mainly to promote his book and was shocked to actually lead in the polls – until troublesome issues from his past surfaced. Wannabes hope they will be the ones to catch fire this election.

 

  • Going for the money: Their real aim is for higher office, an ambassadorship, a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal or a seven-figure cable television gig.

 

  • Unbridled vanity and entitlement: Most politicos, especially those running for president, are narcissists and solipsists with egos on anabolic steroids. They convince themselves, that when they are ready to run, the people will eagerly embrace them.

First Impressions of Some (not all) of the Declared Candidates

Kamala Harris: In 1994, 30 year old Harris met 60 year old Willie Brown, the most powerful politician in California; they embarked on an intimate two-year relationship even though Brown was married.  Brown appointed Harris to lucrative positions and raised money for her. Her parents are Indian and Jamaican and she checks all the right boxes. She is smart, attractive and ruthless and must be taken very seriously.

Elizabeth Warren a/k/a Pocahontas; Despite being an excellent campaigner and fund raiser, she is badly damaged merchandise. She won’t be able to recover her mojo.

Corey Booker a/k/a/ Spartacus: He probably can’t rebound from his Spartacus moment. Even by loosey-goosey political standards, he is an unprincipled hypocrite. He ran in NJ as a champion of school choice and business and has flip-flopped. He is in the same political space as Kamala Harris and won’t be able to compete with her.

Amy Klobuchar: She is not a nice person and as this becomes known, her prospects will wane. She is infamous on Capitol Hill for being tough on staff – berating them and demanding they run personal errands. In the past, that would have disqualified her.

Kirsten Gillibrand: A former tobacco company attorney, she is a political chameleon who radically transformed her beliefs after representing a conservative upstate NY congressional district. I can’t see what she brings to the table. She will not last long.

Bernie Sanders: In what may be our boldest call, Bernie will not reprise his 2016 run. His last campaign is facing sexual harassment charges and his wife possible indictment. He is outflanked on the left (Harris) and he is a man for last season.

Donald Trump: Trump has morphed into a first-rate retail politician. I watched his El Paso rally and it was a masterful performance – testing many of the memes he will use in 2020. His problems are well known, but it is a big mistake to sell him short.


Next on March 3rd, we address Hauser’s Law and soaking the rich.