Insights and analysis not found elsewhere: suppression polling and Biden’s fitness
Election 2020 Update – 40 Days Remaining
By: George Noga – September 23, 2020
This is a special midweek Election 2020 Update. Readers have clamored for MLLG’s take on two issues. First, our analysis of polling that shows Trump trailing. The Real Clear Politics average has him down 6-8 points. The second most frequently asked questions relate to Biden’s fitness. Both those issues are addressed herein. We will publish a final Election 2020 Update November 1st, two days before the election. Visit our website (www.mllg.us) to view prior election updates dated 2/9/20 and 7/20/20.
Nearly all polls, including those conducted by media, academia and major polling organizations, are neither independent nor intended to accurately inform you where the presidential race stands. They are ersatz polls, doctored up to discourage Trump supporters. These so-called suppression polls intentionally understate Trump support. Their theory is that Trump voters, believing the election lost, will become discouraged and fail to vote. Following is our MLLG guide for understanding the polls.
First, Trump lost the 2016 popular vote by 2+ points but still won. Second, polls understate Trump’s support by a minimum of 2 points due to overrepresentation of Democrats and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their true preference to pollsters. Third, add another point (minimum) to Trump to offset the effect of suppression. The total is a minimum of 5 points that Trump’s prospects for victory are understated.
Let’s postulate that polls show Biden 54% and Trump 46%, i.e. Biden is up 8 points. Now, shift 2 points from Biden to Trump to account for the understated support for Trump and overstated support for Biden; the adjusted poll is Biden 52%, Trump 48%. Next, shift 1 point from Biden to Trump to account for suppression; the results become Biden 51% and Trump 49%. But remember, Trump can lose the popular vote by 2 points and still win; hence, the final adjusted poll results show the race a dead heat. Of course, the margin of error – usually 3-5 points – must also be considered.
Polls always tighten before the election as pollsters, protecting their reputations for accuracy, transition away from suppression polling.
National polls are of less value than state and demographic polls. Currently, Trump has a realistic chance to flip Minnesota and Nevada from 2016 but may give back Wisconsin. Trump is substantially outperforming 2016 among black and Hispanic voters but is hemorrhaging support among suburban voters – particularly women. The debates could prove dispositive, especially in light of persistent doubts about Biden’s fitness. The effect of the recent Supreme Court opening still is an unknown. All things considered, the race appears very tight – despite what the polls show.
Questions About Joe Biden’s Fitness
I take no pleasure writing about Biden’s mental health, but there it is – in plain sight for all to see. It is the 900-pound gorilla in the room. Even his most ardent supporters no longer can ignore his many episodes of incoherence. With an assist from Occam’s Razor, the most likely (and perhaps only) explanation is that: (1) Biden has dementia; (2) he is being treated by a physician; (3) he is taking medication; and (4) his very limited public appearances are carefully managed to avoid a meltdown.
The explanation offered above is consistent with many known facts. Trump has called for drug tests prior to the debates as he believes Biden is on medication. In fact, an injection of a stimulus drug before the debates can ameliorate the effects of dementia. Biden is tightly scripted in public and relies on earbuds and teleprompters to answer questions from friendly media lobbing softball questions. As caregivers know, those with dementia have good days and bad days. On his bad days, Biden’s staff shields him from public view and shuts down the campaign. The complicit media ask no questions.
It will be exceedingly difficult to mask Biden’s condition and to avert disaster for 40 more days, which include three presidential debates. All it will take is one brief episode at the wrong time to sink his campaign. And even some of Biden’s good days are problematic. Then there is Kamala Harris waiting in the wings.