If the choice devolves into civilization versus anarchy, bet on civilization.
Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go
By: George Noga – July 26, 2020
The electoral waters have become muddied since my last election update on February 9th, which you may read at www.mllg.us. The coronavirus pandemic and its collateral economic damage, along with the unrest following the George Floyd tragedy, have introduced new and hard-to-fathom variables into the electoral calculus. The intensity of events we are now experiencing is unprecedented and my crystal ball is very cloudy. Nonetheless, I believe readers are due an election 2020 update – so here it is.
In the primaries, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg et.al. (remember them?) ran as leftist incendiaries. Biden won because he campaigned as a moderate who pledged normalcy. Then, against the clear wishes of Democrat primary voters, he tacked sharply left, embracing ideas from Sanders, AOC and rioters in the streets. Meanwhile, Trump picks fights with Bubba Wallace and tweets support for the confederate flag.
There has been an unambiguous change since my last update. In February Trump was favored; in an election held today, he would be an underdog. However, the election is exactly 100 days and 100 news cycles away and far from over. I must dutifully remind readers that Carter led Reagan well into October; Dukakis led Bush by nearly 20 points and no one gave Trump much of a chance right up until 9:00 PM on election day.
In my analysis, one data point stands out above the others: real people casting real votes in real elections counts far more than polls or pundits. In 2016, the UK Brexit election (per Bill Clinton) foretold Hillary’s defeat. Every recent major election, Germany, France, Canada, Australia and the UK, resulted in defeats for the liberal side. In particular, the UK election looms large and may foreshadow our own election.
Parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democrat Party are undeniable. In the December 2019 UK election, the British working class revolted, rocking the UK to its foundation. Labour lost seats it had held for over 100 years; no polls or pundits saw it coming. People everywhere have similar desires. Voters in Northern England and the Midlands are no different than voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They all want economic security but they also desperately crave cultural security.
It could come down to a choice between civilization and anarchy
In my prior analysis, I wrote the African-American vote was a mega wild card with the potential to transform American politics. Polls had Trump’s approval rating with blacks in the mid 30% range and I was prepared to call the election for Trump based solely on that metric. Today, how the black vote ultimately will shake out is not knowable.
In addition to the strong anti-liberal momentum from recent elections (especially in the UK) and the final denouement of the black and Latino vote, other factors exerting the most influence on the election, in rough order of importance, are as follows.
- Performance in the debates (Biden is not likely to debate)
- The pace of economic and jobs recovery
- The coronavirus situation
- Biden gaffes and episodes of incoherence
- The results of the Durham investigation
It has come to this. The incumbent is self-centered, braggadocious and repulses many independent voters with his boorish behavior. Nonetheless, he has an impressive record of accomplishments. The challenger is a serial plagiarist and career politician with nothing to show for 45 years of public office. He secured the nomination as a moderate but now embraces the most radical policies of his party’s firebrands and says he will be a transformational president. And by the way, he appears to be non compos mentis.
Biden is ahead but the election is 100 days away – an eternity in politics. I am not sure how relevant the usual analysis and metrics will be in this election. It could come down to voters having to choose between civilization and anarchy. If that happens, I would bet on civilization. MLLG will publish another election update in October.