Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment
By: George Noga – November 8, 2020
I did not make my customary fearless forecast for the election because there were too many unknowns and unknowables and I believed it was too close to call. Nonetheless, the analysis in my November 1 post was right on the mark; you may judge for yourself by going to our website: www.mllg.us. Voters chose a corrupt and non compos mentis but genial charlatan over a virtuoso with an annoying persona. Mass defections among suburban women exceeded Trump’s historic gains among non-white voters.
Democrats were the biggest losers because the election reaffirmed that America in 2020 remains solidly a center-right country. Voters throughout America (except on the coasts) rejected the progressive agenda. This was evidenced by the: (1) tightness of the presidential race despite large scale defections by never-Trumpers; (2) Dem losses by huge margins in key senate races even though they outspent opponents by humongous amounts; (3) surprising GOP gains in the House; (4) Republicans winning all contested state legislatures and hence controlling the upcoming redistricting process; and (5) historic shifts among non-white voters defecting from the Democratic Party.
Let’s take a deeper dive into the shifts in black and Hispanic voting. Trump’s share of the black vote increased by 50% – from 8% to 12%. In a normal election, this would be enough to swing some key states from blue to red – and this trend is likely to expand. The GOP grew its Latino vote, including Cubans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, and Puerto Ricans. In 95% Mexican-American Zapata County Texas, Trump increased his vote by 36 points (58%) over 2016; in nearby Starr County, he increased it a whopping 55 points (135%). The same was true throughout the Rio Grande Valley. All over America identity politics lost badly. Democrats crying “racist” not only failed, but backfired.
A Way Too Early Look at 2022 and 2024
In the 2022 midterm elections, the party in power historically loses seats in Congress. After their gains this year, the GOP is within easy striking distance of taking over the House of Representatives and likely will do so. In the Senate, the GOP must defend 22 seats while the Dems defend only 12. Normally, this would be a hard slog, but based on American political history, the GOP might even be able to pick up a few seats.
Looking to 2024, Biden is a one-term president; the chances of completing his term are well under 50% – due to cognitive and/or corruption issues. Should Kamala Harris become president and be the nominee, this will be a Dem disaster. Whether Kamala or someone else, the Dems are likely to nominate a leftist incendiary for president as they do not have centrist candidates – although that could change in four years. Without the never-Trump vote and with far less non-white votes, the Dems’ chances appear bleak. Moreover, in 2024 they must defend 23 senate seats to only 10 for Republicans.
Packing the Supreme Court and the Senate
Although “packing” appears less likely given the probable composition of the senate, I wanted to share some analysis about packing that you won’t see elsewhere.
Packing the Courts: I have never seen this argument in print or heard it anywhere, but there is a strong case that packing the Supreme Court is unconstitutional because it violates the separation of powers clearly established in the Constitution. If Dems pack the court with the clear intent of turning it into a de facto adjunct of the Democratic Party, that clearly abolishes the separation of powers and eviscerates the Constitution.
For the record, there are other less nefarious forms of court packing. For example, the sprawling Ninth Circuit (Circus) US Court of Appeals, which covers much of the western US, could be split into two or three parts and 25 new appellate judges added.
Packing the Senate: This would be done by admitting Puerto Rico and DC as states. There are serious legal problems with making DC a state, specifically the 23rd Amendment. If the Dems really want to admit DC and PR, I have a proposal for them. Make DC a state but add back to its territory the northern Virginia counties taken away from it in 1847. Removing those heavily democratic counties would turn the remainder of Virginia into a solid red state. If they wish to make PR a state, they can add Baltimore to DC, making the rest of Maryland a deep red state. This would be an equal trade, i.e. four new Democrat senate seats for four new GOP senate seats.
The left also would like to grant statehood to Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands. Interestingly, there is historical precedent for packing the senate. In 1889 Republicans, in control of government, split the Dakota Territory in two (North and South) to increase the number of Republican senators.
Next on November 15th, we address the politicization of sports in America.