Tag: Election 2020

Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

George Noga

At least three or four US presidents owe their election to fraud.

Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

By: George Noga – January 24, 2021

America experienced back-to-back election debacles in 2016 and 2020. In 2016 it was failure to accept the results due to alleged foreign interference. In 2020 it was fraudulent voting. Recounts accomplish little if they merely recount votes including illegal ones. Voter fraud has a lengthy provenance in the USA and there have been at least three presidents elected fraudulently – four, if you include Rutherford Hayes.

Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland in 1888 due to fraud in Harrison’s home state of Indiana. Following a massive pubic outcry, Indiana’s election laws were reformed and in 1892 Cleveland won by carrying Indiana. LBJ won his 1948 senate seat by 87 votes – the final 200 of which were all for Johnson, in the same ink, same handwriting and in alphabetic order; otherwise, LBJ would not have been president. Finally, the 1960 election was stolen for JFK due to rampant fraud in Illinois.

Stealing elections is as American as apple pie. In my high school, the administration changed the results of student elections if they didn’t like the outcome, even for homecoming queen. In college, student government vote fraud was rampant. In my fraternity, the election for sweetheart was rigged so the fraternity president’s girl friend won – even though she was disliked. My psychiatrist friends tell me 90% of their patients’ problems revolve around money, sex and/or power. Politics involves all three of these (in spades), so cheating in elections should be no shock to anyone.

During colonial times, people voted aloud to have their votes recorded. In the early days of the republic, there were no secret ballots and vote buying was commonplace. After secret ballots were introduced in the 1880s, voting declined by about 20% due to the absence of vote buying. By 1892, 38 states had adopted secret ballots.

If Americans no longer trust elections, we are no better than banana republics. Polls show large swaths of Americans believe there was rampant fraud in the 2020 election. If this continues, it will lead to violence and anarchy. If cheating is rewarded, it will increase. Unless we restore integrity to our elections, we will reap the whirlwind. The following reforms must be instituted to restore credibility to our elections.

  1. The entire process must be 100% transparent including to poll watchers.

  2. There must be an audit trail that matches every ballot to an eligible voter.
  3. Absentee ballots must be requested individually by registered voters.
  4. Voter rolls must be purged often of deaths, non-deliverable addresses, etc.
  5. Everyone must have government issued photo ID to vote – no exceptions.
  6. All votes must be received no later than when the polls close.
  7. Ban mail-in voting, the greatest source of potential cheating.
  8. Early in-person voting allowed no more than 7 days before an election.
  9. No vote harvesting – only one vote (or family) at a time to be turned in.

  10. Make it a felony to violate these laws and vigorously prosecute offenders.

A huge majority of Republicans, a majority of independents and a significant cohort of Democrats believe there was widespread fraud in 2020. It doesn’t matter whether they are right – the fact they credibly believe it is a serous problem. We must not only end voter fraud, we must prevent even the appearance of, or the potential for, fraud.

Without integrity and transparency, our elections will become like those of Russia, Venezuela or Belarus. Today, it is the Democrats who believe they win from failing to reign in fraud. But if our elections are to be decided opaquely with no ironclad curbs on cheating, it will become a race to the bottom and there will be no winners.

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Incredibly, MLLG has come to possess a document from the year 2121 containing the

definitive history of climate change written 100 years from now. Our next post presents

that history and you will know the outcome of mankind’s struggle with climate change.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment

George Noga

Although Biden may have won the presidency, the biggest losers are progressives. The election shattered their dream of transforming the US into a socialist Utopia .

Election 2020 Aftermath: Analysis and Comment

By: George Noga – November 8, 2020

I did not make my customary fearless forecast for the election because there were too many unknowns and unknowables and I believed it was too close to call. Nonetheless, the analysis in my November 1 post was right on the mark; you may judge for yourself by going to our website: www.mllg.us. Voters chose a corrupt and non compos mentis but genial charlatan over a virtuoso with an annoying persona. Mass defections among suburban women exceeded Trump’s historic gains among non-white voters.

Democrats were the biggest losers because the election reaffirmed that America in 2020 remains solidly a center-right country. Voters throughout America (except on the coasts) rejected the progressive agenda. This was evidenced by the: (1) tightness of the presidential race despite large scale defections by never-Trumpers; (2) Dem losses by huge margins in key senate races even though they outspent opponents by humongous amounts; (3) surprising GOP gains in the House; (4) Republicans winning all contested state legislatures and hence controlling the upcoming redistricting process; and (5) historic shifts among non-white voters defecting from the Democratic Party.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the shifts in black and Hispanic voting. Trump’s share of the black vote increased by 50% – from 8% to 12%. In a normal election, this would be enough to swing some key states from blue to red – and this trend is likely to expand. The GOP grew its Latino vote, including Cubans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, and Puerto Ricans. In 95% Mexican-American Zapata County Texas, Trump increased his vote by 36 points (58%) over 2016; in nearby Starr County, he increased it a whopping 55 points (135%). The same was true throughout the Rio Grande Valley. All over America identity politics lost badly. Democrats crying “racist” not only failed, but backfired.

A Way Too Early Look at 2022 and 2024

In the 2022 midterm elections, the party in power historically loses seats in Congress. After their gains this year, the GOP is within easy striking distance of taking over the House of Representatives and likely will do so. In the Senate, the GOP must defend 22 seats while the Dems defend only 12. Normally, this would be a hard slog, but based on American political history, the GOP might even be able to pick up a few seats.

Looking to 2024, Biden is a one-term president; the chances of completing his term are well under 50% – due to cognitive and/or corruption issues. Should Kamala Harris become president and be the nominee, this will be a Dem disaster. Whether Kamala or someone else, the Dems are likely to nominate a leftist incendiary for president as they do not have centrist candidates – although that could change in four years. Without the never-Trump vote and with far less non-white votes, the Dems’ chances appear bleak. Moreover, in 2024 they must defend 23 senate seats to only 10 for Republicans.

Packing the Supreme Court and the Senate

Although “packing” appears less likely given the probable composition of the senate, I wanted to share some analysis about packing that you won’t see elsewhere.

Packing the Courts: I have never seen this argument in print or heard it anywhere, but there is a strong case that packing the Supreme Court is unconstitutional because it violates the separation of powers clearly established in the Constitution. If Dems pack the court with the clear intent of turning it into a de facto adjunct of the Democratic Party, that clearly abolishes the separation of powers and eviscerates the Constitution.

For the record, there are other less nefarious forms of court packing. For example, the sprawling Ninth Circuit (Circus) US Court of Appeals, which covers much of the western US, could be split into two or three parts and 25 new appellate judges added.

Packing the Senate: This would be done by admitting Puerto Rico and DC as states. There are serious legal problems with making DC a state, specifically the 23rd Amendment. If the Dems really want to admit DC and PR, I have a proposal for them. Make DC a state but add back to its territory the northern Virginia counties taken away from it in 1847. Removing those heavily democratic counties would turn the remainder of Virginia into a solid red state. If they wish to make PR a state, they can add Baltimore to DC, making the rest of Maryland a deep red state. This would be an equal trade, i.e. four new Democrat senate seats for four new GOP senate seats.

The left also would like to grant statehood to Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands. Interestingly, there is historical precedent for packing the senate. In 1889 Republicans, in control of government, split the Dakota Territory in two (North and South) to increase the number of Republican senators.

Next on November 15th, we address the politicization of sports in America.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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Election 2020: Civilization or Anarchy?

George Noga

Will voters choose an amiable witch doctor over a real doctor with a poor bedside manner?

Election 2020: Civilization or Anarchy?

By: George Noga – November 1, 2020

In 1939 Winston Churchill quipped Russia was “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. As I try to make sense of Tuesday’s election, I understand how he felt. I have labored mightily to try and present readers with my fearless forecast. However, due to many factors, chiefly surging Covid, ersatz polling, the Biden scandal, urban anarchy and unprecedented voter turnout, we are sailing in terra incognita.

How Biden Could Win

Biden enjoys a significant, but definitely surmountable, lead nationally (7 points in the Real Clear Politics average) and clings to slim leads in most battleground states. He is running 1-2 points ahead of 2016. Polls are more reliable this close to the election as those that were engaging in suppression have shifted to protecting their reputations for accuracy. If the RCP poll average is anywhere near accurate, Biden will be favored.

Biden is surpassing expectations with three cohorts of voters: (1) Republicans and independents who may have voted for Trump in 2016; (2) suburban voters, particularly women; and (3) seniors. Each of these groups has been turned off by Trump’s persona and tweeting. If Biden’s strength holds up in these cohorts, he will be favored.

How Trump Could Win

Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote by 2-3 points. Polls undercount his support by 2 to 4 percentage points due to underrepresentation of Republicans in the polls and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their preference to pollsters. This means polls showing Biden leading by up to 7 points (such as the RCP average) may actually be about even. Then there is the margin of error, which could go in either direction.

I continue to place much stock in the outcome of recent elections in Canada, France, Germany and Australia – all conservative victories. I place the most stock in the UK election where the Tories won a landslide victory not captured by any polling.

Trump is vastly outperforming expectations among two key demographics – blacks and Hispanics. Trump is garnering 15% of the black vote (30% in places) – double that of 2016. Without the defection of swaths of suburban women, such a surge of African-American support would have been dispositive for an historic Trump victory.

Enthusiasm clearly favors Trump. In 2016 the relative size of crowds proved a good predictor of Trump’s victory; it is happening again. Trump is drawing crowds into the tens of thousands; even Donald Jr. is vastly outdrawing Biden. Then there is the stark contrast between a high-energy president frenetically criss-crossing the country while his opponent rarely leaves his basement. Finally, incumbents enjoy a big advantage.

The Unknowns and Unknowables

There are unknowns and unknowables: (1) voter turnout is on pace to shatter records, but who is turning out and where; (2) shifts in voter sentiment in the final few days are undetectable and can swing elections; (3) the coronavirus surge is hard to gauge as it cuts in two directions; older voters blame Trump and younger ones oppose lockdowns; (4) urban anarchy (Philadelphia) undoubtedly influences voters; (5) problems with mail-in ballots – including fraud; (6) impact of the Biden influence peddling scandal, including Hunter’s laptop and Bobulinsky revelations; and finally, (7) Joe’s non compos mentis which, despite keeping Joe in his basement, is plainly visible to voters.

Civilization or Anarchy?

It comes down to whether key cohorts, such as suburban women and seniors, prefer an amiable but doddering witch doctor, chanting pallid incantations, to a real doctor with a poor bedside manner. It comes down to whether distaste of Trump’s persona is reason enough for voters to turn our beloved republic over to a party antithetical to the Constitution, history, traditions, core values and identity of America. Will voters, in a fit of Trumpian pique, vote against their beliefs, ideals, values and interests? In the end, everything comes down to a choice between civilization or anarchy.

Most of the normal guideposts are broken and there are too many unknowns and unknowables to make my customary fearless forecast. The election remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. As I write this on October 31st, I can palpably feel the election tightening. The late momentum is all in Trump’s favor and the critical question is – will it be enough. Fasten your seat belts for a wild ride!

Next on November 8th, we offer our reflections on the election.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Election 2020 Update – 40 Days Remaining

George Noga

Insights and analysis not found elsewhere: suppression polling and Biden’s fitness

 

Election 2020 Update – 40 Days Remaining

By: George Noga – September 23, 2020

This is a special midweek Election 2020 Update. Readers have clamored for MLLG’s take on two issues. First, our analysis of polling that shows Trump trailing. The Real Clear Politics average has him down 6-8 points. The second most frequently asked questions relate to Biden’s fitness. Both those issues are addressed herein. We will publish a final Election 2020 Update November 1st, two days before the election. Visit our website (www.mllg.us) to view prior election updates dated 2/9/20 and 7/20/20.

Suppression Polling

Nearly all polls, including those conducted by media, academia and major polling organizations, are neither independent nor intended to accurately inform you where the presidential race stands. They are ersatz polls, doctored up to discourage Trump supporters. These so-called suppression polls intentionally understate Trump support. Their theory is that Trump voters, believing the election lost, will become discouraged and fail to vote. Following is our MLLG guide for understanding the polls.

First, Trump lost the 2016 popular vote by 2+ points but still won. Second, polls understate Trump’s support by a minimum of 2 points due to overrepresentation of Democrats and reluctance of Trump voters to reveal their true preference to pollsters. Third, add another point (minimum) to Trump to offset the effect of suppression. The total is a minimum of 5 points that Trump’s prospects for victory are understated.

Let’s postulate that polls show Biden 54% and Trump 46%, i.e. Biden is up 8 points. Now, shift 2 points from Biden to Trump to account for the understated support for Trump and overstated support for Biden; the adjusted poll is Biden 52%, Trump 48%. Next, shift 1 point from Biden to Trump to account for suppression; the results become Biden 51% and Trump 49%. But remember, Trump can lose the popular vote by 2 points and still win; hence, the final adjusted poll results show the race a dead heat. Of course, the margin of error – usually 3-5 points – must also be considered.

Polls always tighten before the election as pollsters, protecting their reputations for accuracy, transition away from suppression polling.

National polls are of less value than state and demographic polls. Currently, Trump has a realistic chance to flip Minnesota and Nevada from 2016 but may give back Wisconsin. Trump is substantially outperforming 2016 among black and Hispanic voters but is hemorrhaging support among suburban voters – particularly women. The debates could prove dispositive, especially in light of persistent doubts about Biden’s fitness. The effect of the recent Supreme Court opening still is an unknown. All things considered, the race appears very tight – despite what the polls show.

Questions About Joe Biden’s Fitness

I take no pleasure writing about Biden’s mental health, but there it is – in plain sight for all to see. It is the 900-pound gorilla in the room. Even his most ardent supporters no longer can ignore his many episodes of incoherence. With an assist from Occam’s Razor, the most likely (and perhaps only) explanation is that: (1) Biden has dementia; (2) he is being treated by a physician; (3) he is taking medication; and (4) his very limited public appearances are carefully managed to avoid a meltdown.

The explanation offered above is consistent with many known facts. Trump has called for drug tests prior to the debates as he believes Biden is on medication. In fact, an injection of a stimulus drug before the debates can ameliorate the effects of dementia. Biden is tightly scripted in public and relies on earbuds and teleprompters to answer questions from friendly media lobbing softball questions. As caregivers know, those with dementia have good days and bad days. On his bad days, Biden’s staff shields him from public view and shuts down the campaign. The complicit media ask no questions.

It will be exceedingly difficult to mask Biden’s condition and to avert disaster for 40 more days, which include three presidential debates. All it will take is one brief episode at the wrong time to sink his campaign. And even some of Biden’s good days are problematic. Then there is Kamala Harris waiting in the wings.

Next up: I reveal my decision about buying firearms.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

President Biden or President Trump . . . Whoever Wins Should Not Really Matter

George Noga

Who is President of the United States should have little effect on our lives.

President Biden or President Trump . . .

Whoever Wins Should Not Really Matter

By: George Noga – September 20, 2020

For America’s first 200 years, whoever was elected president was largely irrelevant because he had little power over our lives or that of our neighbors. This is as our founders intended. The Constitution grants government only a few limited and enumerated powers and contains many checks and balances against the concentration and abuse of power. Government’s purpose was to protect our liberty. Who was on the school board, mayor or governor mattered much more than who was president.

Until a few decades ago government stayed mostly inside its constitutional box; whoever held office made little difference in our lives. Presidents exercised limited power and vetoed unconstitutional laws. Congress did not cede power to armies of unelected bureaucrats and the judiciary was largely apolitical. States jealously guarded their rights as part of a federalist republic. The media held government accountable. Ordinary citizens wielded power to convene grand juries and to nullify unpopular laws. Finally, Americans regarded liberty as a priceless jewel and voted accordingly.

How did we get from a Constitution of limited government to one that dictates which rest room we use and how much water is in our toilets? How did we get to a president who declares he will stop the rise of oceans? How did we get to a congress that passes unread 2,000 page laws in the dead of night? How did we get to a hyper-political judiciary that conjures new rights from thin air? How did we get to millions of bureaucrats and 200,000 pages of regulations? How did we get to neutered states, a statist media and a populace that meekly accepts all these horrors?

The answers are both sad and predictable. Per Jefferson, “It is the natural order of things for government to gain and liberty to yield”. Capitalism has made Americans so rich we forgot the source of our liberty and prosperity and it has sown the seeds of its own destruction. Per Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, Americans have transcended basic needs and achieved material prosperity. This allows people the security to indulge in risk-free political witchcraft. Any society with psychologists for its pets is one that has badly lost its perspective. Like Esau, we sold our birthright for a bowl of stew.

Unfortunately, who we elect president in November will profoundly affect our lives. Presidents have transmogrified into kings, wielding enormous unchecked power unthinkable for the first 200 years of our republic. Americans once saved most of their passion for religion; now politics has largely supplanted religion. We view elections as contests between good and evil rather than as ones of policy. Everything in our lives has become politicized, including science, religion, news and education. We have come to regard those with whom we disagree as not merely wrong, but as devils.

American democracy is caught in a hyper-partisan death spiral. Winning at all costs threatens our constitutional foundation and the rule of law. The quest for immediate electoral victory is coming at the cost of long-term stability, such as by eliminating the filibuster, which has stood as a bulwark for moderation for nearly 200 years. The dehumanization of our political adversaries sanctions increasingly extreme behavior.

Our liberty is a priceless jewel of eternal and inestimable value. However, its setting has become badly tarnished. We must dedicate ourselves to restoring its original luster and grandeur to that worthy of the gem of incalculable value it holds. If we succeed, one day in the future who becomes president will again have little effect on our lives.

Next on September 27th, I reveal my decision about buying firearms.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go

George Noga

 

If the choice devolves into civilization versus anarchy, bet on civilization.

 

Election 2020 – 100 Days To Go

By: George Noga – July 26, 2020

The electoral waters have become muddied since my last election update on February 9th, which you may read at www.mllg.us. The coronavirus pandemic and its collateral economic damage, along with the unrest following the George Floyd tragedy, have introduced new and hard-to-fathom variables into the electoral calculus. The intensity of events we are now experiencing is unprecedented and my crystal ball is very cloudy. Nonetheless, I believe readers are due an election 2020 update – so here it is.

In the primaries, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg et.al. (remember them?) ran as leftist incendiaries. Biden won because he campaigned as a moderate who pledged normalcy. Then, against the clear wishes of Democrat primary voters, he tacked sharply left, embracing ideas from Sanders, AOC and rioters in the streets. Meanwhile, Trump picks fights with Bubba Wallace and tweets support for the confederate flag.

There has been an unambiguous change since my last update. In February Trump was favored; in an election held today, he would be an underdog. However, the election is exactly 100 days and 100 news cycles away and far from over. I must dutifully remind readers that Carter led Reagan well into October; Dukakis led Bush by nearly 20 points and no one gave Trump much of a chance right up until 9:00 PM on election day.

In my analysis, one data point stands out above the others: real people casting real votes in real elections counts far more than polls or pundits. In 2016, the UK Brexit election (per Bill Clinton) foretold Hillary’s defeat. Every recent major election, Germany, France, Canada, Australia and the UK, resulted in defeats for the liberal side. In particular, the UK election looms large and may foreshadow our own election.

Parallels between the UK Labour Party and the US Democrat Party are undeniable. In the December 2019 UK election, the British working class revolted, rocking the UK to its foundation. Labour lost seats it had held for over 100 years; no polls or pundits saw it coming. People everywhere have similar desires. Voters in Northern England and the Midlands are no different than voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They all want economic security but they also desperately crave cultural security.

It could come down to a choice between civilization and anarchy

In my prior analysis, I wrote the African-American vote was a mega wild card with the potential to transform American politics. Polls had Trump’s approval rating with blacks in the mid 30% range and I was prepared to call the election for Trump based solely on that metric. Today, how the black vote ultimately will shake out is not knowable.

In addition to the strong anti-liberal momentum from recent elections (especially in the UK) and the final denouement of the black and Latino vote, other factors exerting the most influence on the election, in rough order of importance, are as follows.

  1. Performance in the debates (Biden is not likely to debate)
  2. The pace of economic and jobs recovery
  3. The coronavirus situation
  4. Biden gaffes and episodes of incoherence
  5. The results of the Durham investigation

It has come to this. The incumbent is self-centered, braggadocious and repulses many independent voters with his boorish behavior. Nonetheless, he has an impressive record of accomplishments. The challenger is a serial plagiarist and career politician with nothing to show for 45 years of public office. He secured the nomination as a moderate but now embraces the most radical policies of his party’s firebrands and says he will be a transformational president. And by the way, he appears to be non compos mentis.

Biden is ahead but the election is 100 days away – an eternity in politics. I am not sure how relevant the usual analysis and metrics will be in this election. It could come down to voters having to choose between civilization and anarchy. If that happens, I would bet on civilization. MLLG will publish another election update in October.

Our next post on August 2nd, announces significant changes to our blog.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The Issues of 2020: Wealth and Other Taxes

George Noga

Who would do the most good with the money, billionaires like Bill Gates or Elizabeth Warren?

 

The Issues of 2020: Wealth and Other Taxes

By: George Noga – February 16, 2020

           In this election year, we periodically will analyze the presidential race; we also will address many of the issues. This first issue-oriented post deals with the proposed wealth tax. Future posts will address, inter alia, UBI (universal basic income), MMT (modern monetary theory), income inequality, gun violence and socialism. Although the wealth tax gets much of the attention, Democratic Party candidates have proposed a veritable smorgasbord of new and increased taxes; following is a compilation.

##  New annual wealth tax of up to 6% on all assets

##  Raising top marginal income tax rate to 69.2% (75% increase)

##  Increasing corporate tax rate to 35% from 21% (67% increase)

##  Expand Medicare tax .9% plus a host of new Medicare taxes

##  Raising the estate tax to 77%  from 40% (93% increase)

##  New carbon tax on fuel, energy and utilities

 

##  Hiking the payroll tax by 2.4 points (15% increase)

##  Taxing capital gains as ordinary income (up to 175% increase)

##  Removing all caps from the payroll tax (15% increase)

##  Taxing unrealized capital gains each year

##  Imposing a VAT (value added tax) on the entire US economy

##  Surtax of 7% on corporate income exceeding taxable income

 

##  New exit tax of 40% of assets for giving up citizenship

##  Surtax of 10% on all income above $1 million

##  Applying the 14.8% payroll tax to investment income

##  Raising the top dividend/cap gain tax to 52% (160% increase)

##  New tax of up to .5% on financial transactions

##  Repeal existing business expensing and 20% pass through

 

         I never before have seen a comprehensive list of all proposed new and increased taxes; that’s why I invested the time to compile this list for our readers. Democrats want to raise (most by 50% to 100%) virtually every existing tax, plus add huge new ones like a wealth tax, value added tax, carbon tax, financial transactions tax and exit tax. The cumulative effect of these taxes would instantly wreck any economy.

Wealth Taxes: Failed – Unconstitutional – Immoral

          Where to begin? Twelve affluent European countries once imposed wealth taxes; today only three remain. Most abandoned taxing wealth because of myriad problems that resulted in vastly lower tax collections than anticipated. Problems included: (1) measuring wealth; (2) changes in taxpayer behavior; (3) high cost of collecting the tax; (4) taxpayer flight; 70,000 millionaires left France before it repealed its wealth tax; (5) a brain drain; and (6) distortion of savings and investment decisions.

       A wealth tax is almost certainly unconstitutional. The Constitution (Article I, Section 9, Clause 4) severely restricts the ability of the federal government to lay taxes and bans “direct taxes“; it required a constitutional amendment in 1913 before an income tax became legal. Courts likely would construe a wealth tax as a direct tax.

         A US wealth tax would encounter the same six problems Europe experienced and would collect only a tiny fraction of the amount projected. In addition, there would be serious new problems including: (1) raising the cost of capital; (2) discouraging capital investment and job creation; (3) raising interest rates; (4) harming stocks, 401(k)s and pensions; and (5) shifting money from the private to the public sector.

        Consider one example. A Silicon Valley entrepreneur, whose business is valued at $6 billion, would pay a wealth tax of $320 million (6% on excess over $1 billion and 2% on first billion). He would need to sell $1.1 billion (nearly 20% of his company) in order to pay $630 million in capital gains tax and $150 million in California tax to have $320 million left over to pay the wealth tax. And when he dies, there is a 77% estate tax. Poof, in five years it is gone! If he invested an additional $1,000 and earned 6% ($60), he would pay $35 in federal tax, $8 in California tax and $60 in wealth tax. He would pay total taxes of $103 on $60 of income – a tax rate of 172%.

      The strongest argument against a wealth tax is a moral one. It penalizes work, thrift, risk taking, and investment – behaviors that should be lauded and encouraged. A wealth tax represents quadruple taxation; government taxing the same funds (1) when originally earned; (2) as business taxes, dividends or capital gains; (3) as a wealth tax; and (4) as an estate tax. Wealth taxes not only are a failure – they are immoral!

Next on February 23rd, we reprint the most consequential speech ever given. 
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

There is No Such Thing as the Popular Vote

George Noga

The United States is not a democracy and there is no such thing as the popular vote.

There is No Such Thing as the Popular Vote
By: George Noga – February 2, 2020

 

The Electoral College (“EC”) gets no respect! Hillary’s 2016 loss whipped progressives into a frenzy, prompting much talk about abolishing the EC; there also has been action. A leftist, Soros-funded organization, National Popular Vote (“NPV”), aims to overthrow the EC. Thus far 16 (blue) states with 195 electoral votes have passed legislation to cast their votes for whoever wins the national popular vote. The NPV compact takes effect if and when states with 270 electoral votes ratify the pact.

       It is past due for MLLG to provide a full-throated defense of the EC. Following are compelling reasons why the Electoral College is preferable to a popular vote.

The United States of America is Not a Democracy

       The US is a constitutional republic; the word democracy is nowhere to be found (not even once) in either the Declaration or the Constitution. The EC is consistent with, and a popular vote is inconsistent with, a republican form of government. A national popular vote would destroy the carefully crafted constitutional architecture which is based on federalism, separation of powers and checks and balances. A direct popular vote would sever the election of the president from the rest of the constitutional forms and would create a myriad of new troubles including tyranny of the majority.

There is No Such Thing as a National Popular Vote

      There are many things crucial to winning a presidential election: fund-raising, advertising, grass-roots organization and personal campaign appearances. Republican candidates would not waste precious and limited resources on New York or California. No democratic candidate would squander such resources on Texas or Wyoming.  Moreover, if you were a democrat voter in Utah or a republican voter in Illinois, just how motivated would you be to vote, knowing your vote for president is meaningless?

       The simple truth is that there never has been and there is not now a true popular vote in America. There is only a meaningless total of votes cast within the electoral college system. No one knows who would have won a popular vote since none existed. Therefore Hillary did not win the popular vote and, as shown infra, could have lost.

Hillary Probably Loses a True Popular Vote Election

       Since 1824, when popular votes first were recorded, 19 presidents, or 40% out of the 48 elections since then, failed to receive over 50% of the vote. In a true popular vote election there would be a runoff if no candidate received 50%. In 2016 Hillary got 65,853,516 votes to Trump’s 62,984,825. In a runoff Hillary probably gets Jill Stein’s 1,457,216 Green Party votes and Trump gets Gary Johnson’s 4,489,221 Libertarian Party votes. Trump then wins with 67,474,046 votes to Hillary’s 67,310,732.

      Not only would Hillary likely have lost the 2016 popular vote election, Bill also would have lost in 1992. Bill got 44,909,806 votes, Bush 39,104,550 and Perot 19,743,821. If Bush picks up 65% of the Perot vote, he wins and Bill loses and most observers believed Bush would have gotten a strong majority of the Perot vote.

Other Nations Don’t Conduct Popular Vote Elections

       Few countries use popular vote; most advanced democracies use indirect systems. In the recent Canadian election, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party won with 33.0% of the vote to the Conservative Party’s 34.4%. Parliamentary systems, ubiquitous throughout Europe, routinely elect minority leaders. In virtually no democratic system is the popular vote decisive. The measure of our system is how effective it is at bringing about just, free and stable government. A popular vote, like in the French Revolution, does a good job of actualizing the will of the people. How did that work out?

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        Our Constitution is the best and most enduring document ever created to define the relationship of man to the state. The Electoral College contains fraud within small jurisdictions, reduces federal power over elections and fosters the building of broad coalitions while discouraging regionalism. It has served us well for over 232 years. It is a foundational safeguard against the tyranny of the majority. We need to preserve it and importantly, we must help our fellow Americans understand why it is worth keeping and not to be discarded whenever there is a tough electoral loss.

Next on February 9th, we shine our light on the 2020 presidential election.
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

Enduring Principles of American Politics

George Noga
The first and foremost principle is that America is a center-right country. 
Enduring Principles of American Politics
By: George Noga – May 26, 2019

           Judging by our feedback, readers can’t seem to get enough of our non-partisan political analysis. Many readers have requested a posting that contains a complete listing of MLLG’s principles of American politics. This post fulfills that request.

 

          Presidential elections are influenced by, inter alia, parties, candidates, events, issues, ads and debates. Based on American political history and tradition, MLLG has identified eight enduring principles that exert an outsized effect in determining who wins; such principles usually transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. These principles provide you a strong foundation to better understand the 2020 election.

1. America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or McGovern-like outcome. This remains true in 2020; all the prattle about democratic socialism is limited to about 20% of the population. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 75 years were Carter and Clinton, southern state governors, and Obama, who ran as a centrist, was a rare political talent and faced insipid competition.

2. Economics trumps all else. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid.” was exactly on target. If the economy in 2020 remains robust, it creates a powerful tailwind for the incumbent. Every econometric model shows Trump winning handily if the economy remains strong. Voters always reward a politician who makes them better off.

3. There are no permanent majorities. Issues, positions, alliances and demographics continually shift and minority parties skillfully adapt. Movements of all types get subsumed into larger groups. This principle is not relevant to the 2020 election.

4. Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton spent $1.2 billion to Trump’s $600 million in 2016 and still lost. Any serious candidate will get the necessary funding. Spending money has diminishing returns and, at some point, negative returns – a case in point being Huffington’s 1994 CA senate race. Money will not be a factor in 2020.

5. Incumbency is powerful. In the past 126 years, only 2 elected presidents lost head-to-head elections. Americans always vote for the fool they know over the devil they don’t. This principle, ceteris paribus, confers great advantage to Trump in 2020.

6. The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. With only the exceptions of FDR and the post Civil War era, we must go back 225 years to see any party in power for more than 12 consecutive years. This is not a factor for 2020.

7. Define yourself before your opponent does; as a corollary, define your opponent before he does. It is essential to define who you are with the electorate; failure to do so lets your opponent define you. Like a good joke, defining yourself and your opponent must contain some truth to be effective. Trump is a master of this principle and he employed it to great effect in the 2016 primaries and general election.

8. Polls and approval ratings have limited value. The value of polls lies in identifying issues and sentiment more than who is ahead or behind. Polls today are notoriously inaccurate and undercount Trump support by 3-5 points; no major poll predicted a Trump victory in 2016. Don’t get too worked up over early polls, or any polls for that matter. Remember that many Americans don’t seriously focus on elections until after Labor Day and often don’t decide until weeks, or even days, before an election. Carter led Reagan well into October, yet Reagan ended up winning 44 states.

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       As you watch the 2020 election drama unfold, there is one wild card with the potential to utterly disrupt politics as usual. I am referring to the “blexit” movement, i.e. the black exit from the Democratic Party. MLLG was among the very first to identify this trend in our February 12, 2017 post (see it on our website: www.mllg.us). Next week’s post is devoted 100% to blexit. This is a post you won’t want to miss!

Blexit – the black exodus from the Democratic Party – is next up on June 2nd.
More Liberty Less Government  –  mllg@mllg.us  –  www.mllg.us

Election 2020: Analysis and Perspective

George Noga
MLLG shares its inimitable analysis and perspective about the 2020 election.
Election 2020: Analysis and Perspective
By: George Noga – February 28, 2019

          This is our first Election 2020 posting. Periodically, between now and November 2020, we will offer analysis and perspective about candidates, issues and the electoral process, with insights not often found in the mass media. Readers have been requesting such coverage, especially in light of our on-the-money analysis of the 2016 Trump election. Check out our political bona fides on our website: www.mllg.us.

Analysis: Why Candidates Run Despite No Realistic Chance to Win

  • Running for VP:  They are positioning themselves for vice president or for a high level appointed position. There is no direct way to run for VP or a cabinet slot, so they run for president hoping a strong showing on the national stage gets them there.

 

  • Running for the future: They don’t expect to succeed this go-round but, with a strong showing, can be a frontrunner in the next election. Running gets them vetted and gains them valuable experience in fund raising and presidential politics.

 

  • Hoping for a miracle: In most election cycles, for unforeseeable reasons, a dark horse catches fire. An example is Herman Cain in 2012, who ran mainly to promote his book and was shocked to actually lead in the polls – until troublesome issues from his past surfaced. Wannabes hope they will be the ones to catch fire this election.

 

  • Going for the money: Their real aim is for higher office, an ambassadorship, a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal or a seven-figure cable television gig.

 

  • Unbridled vanity and entitlement: Most politicos, especially those running for president, are narcissists and solipsists with egos on anabolic steroids. They convince themselves, that when they are ready to run, the people will eagerly embrace them.

First Impressions of Some (not all) of the Declared Candidates

Kamala Harris: In 1994, 30 year old Harris met 60 year old Willie Brown, the most powerful politician in California; they embarked on an intimate two-year relationship even though Brown was married.  Brown appointed Harris to lucrative positions and raised money for her. Her parents are Indian and Jamaican and she checks all the right boxes. She is smart, attractive and ruthless and must be taken very seriously.

Elizabeth Warren a/k/a Pocahontas; Despite being an excellent campaigner and fund raiser, she is badly damaged merchandise. She won’t be able to recover her mojo.

Corey Booker a/k/a/ Spartacus: He probably can’t rebound from his Spartacus moment. Even by loosey-goosey political standards, he is an unprincipled hypocrite. He ran in NJ as a champion of school choice and business and has flip-flopped. He is in the same political space as Kamala Harris and won’t be able to compete with her.

Amy Klobuchar: She is not a nice person and as this becomes known, her prospects will wane. She is infamous on Capitol Hill for being tough on staff – berating them and demanding they run personal errands. In the past, that would have disqualified her.

Kirsten Gillibrand: A former tobacco company attorney, she is a political chameleon who radically transformed her beliefs after representing a conservative upstate NY congressional district. I can’t see what she brings to the table. She will not last long.

Bernie Sanders: In what may be our boldest call, Bernie will not reprise his 2016 run. His last campaign is facing sexual harassment charges and his wife possible indictment. He is outflanked on the left (Harris) and he is a man for last season.

Donald Trump: Trump has morphed into a first-rate retail politician. I watched his El Paso rally and it was a masterful performance – testing many of the memes he will use in 2020. His problems are well known, but it is a big mistake to sell him short.

Next on March 3rd, we address Hauser’s Law and soaking the rich.