More Liberty - Less Government

Debt Ceiling Legerdemain

June 4, 2023June 8, 2023 George Noga

Debt ceiling drama was nothing but maskirovka

GEORGE NOGA – JUN 4, 2023

The debt limit negotiations were all sound and fury signifying nothing. The ending of this melodrama was known for a long time. The media, with hyperbole and hysteria, breathlessly flogged a possible default to sluice up their ratings; but there never was any real risk of default. The worst that could have happened was a brief technical default on interest payments – and even that was extremely farfetched.

white concrete dome museum — Photo by Louis Velazquez on Unsplash

There never would be default on any principal for the obvious reason that new debt could be issued in the same amount as the maturing debt without exceeding the debt limit. Insofar as interest is concerned, the federal fisc has over $400B coming in each month whereas interest on the debt usually is around $65B. The US could pay interest on the debt and still have $335B left over. The Treasury also could pay Social Security of $1 trillion per month and have $235B remaining for other expenses.

The ending was precisely as I wrote in my April 23, 2023 post entitled “Debt Limit Kabuki”. It is available on my website: www.mllg.us and on Substack.

“In the end, everyone gets what they want. The debt ceiling is suspended and phony spending cuts are touted. Americans are beguiled into believing we are on a sounder fiscal trajectory. Everyone claims victory and government goes back to business as usual.”

The so-called spending cuts are nothing but smoke, mirrors and prestidigitation. Of the claimed $2 trillion in cuts over 10 years, none are real. Real cuts in current spending are strictly symbolic; they are infinitesimal and inconsequential. All the phantom cuts are based on future arbitrary spending baselines. Moreover, the ersatz cuts apply only to discretionary non-defense spending (DNDS), which is less than 14% of federal spending; the other 86% continues to increase at a high rate.

Trajectory of the deficit is unchanged

Federal spending next FY will increase $500B or 8% even if DNDS is frozen. That’s because entitlements and mandatory spending will increase at least 5% and interest on the debt will skyrocket by $300B or 60% to over $800B. The deficit will remain at $1.5T and likely will increase to $2.0T – and that assumes no recession. This means the deficit will increase y $3T to $4T over the next two years subject to the so-called spending cuts. Some cuts! Freezing the DNDS reduces the putative FY23 deficit only from what was projected – and that is not a real cut, but legerdemain.

As noted, interest on the debt increases $300B next year alone due to sharply higher interest rates and the issuance of new debt at current interest rates to replace maturing debt carrying much lower interest rates. There is $6 trillion of treasury debt maturing soon and it will cost $200B more in annual interest to replace. The other $100B comes from new debt. Because there is $31T of total debt, this same calculus of $200B increases in interest costs will repeat each of the next few years. Within one year, interest on the debt will exceed spending on defense, medicare and DNDS – i.e. running the government. Soon interest alone will top $1T per year.

The skunk at the garden party

About the only favorable thing that can be said about the debt ceiling deal is that it is (barely) better than nothing. Anyone who looks at the numbers in this post will see there is no escape. The only way to change the trajectory of the deficits is to make immediate, large and real spending cuts and to sustain them for a decade or more.

As is apparent from the debt limit kabuki, that is politically impossible – actually, it’s worse than impossible; it’s politically radioactive. The necessary cuts will be made only in the midst of an economic meltdown when Americans are in such a panic they will go along with anything that offers them a glimmer of hope.

Simply to freeze the debt ratio at its present level of around 100% would require an immediate cut of $900B, or over 20% per year across the board – including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and mandatory spending (pensions). And that does not solve the problem; it just keeps it from getting worse.

At the risk of being the skunk at the garden party, the debt ceiling deal is cause for dread – not congratulations. America has passed the point of no return and the beginning of the Great Debt Crisis is only a matter of time. It is Checkmate!

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

How To Abolish Public Employee Unions

May 28, 2023May 30, 2023 George Noga

Public sector unions violate Article IV of the US Constitution
GEORGE NOGA – MAY 28, 2023

Public employee unions are one of the greatest, if not the greatest, dangers to our American democracy. This post provides a roadmap for abolishing them. First, some background. Not that long ago public unions did not exist and there was universal agreement they had no place in government. None other than FDR said:

“Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has insurmountable limitations when applied to public employees. The very nature and purpose of government make it impossible.”

Even the union movement agreed collective bargaining had no place in government. Labor leaders viewed unions as a vehicle for workers to get a larger share of the profits they helped create. However, public employees do not generate profits. The AFL-CIO stated government workers have no rights except to petition Congress.

The dam broke in 1959 when Wisconsin allowed collective bargaining. Since then, public sector unions have metastasized and have taken effective control over governments and are unaccountable to voters; this is their Achilles heel.

The Constitution guarantees a “Republican form of government”

Article IV, Section 4 states: “The United States shall guarantee to every state in the union a Republican form of government.” There is a compelling argument that public sector unions violate this guarantee. The drafters of the Constitution did not define “Republican”. There has been jurisprudence on this point (defining Republican) over the years, including in the Federalist Papers. I have read all the relevant case law and there is no concise definition put forth by the courts directly on point. Based on my reading of the Federalist Papers and the relevant jurisprudence, I believe there is consensus that a Republican form of government is one in which:

The power of government resides in the people – directly or indirectly
The people elect representatives and give them power to serve their interests
Representatives represent everyone, i.e. provide for the common welfare
No control or special treatment is to be given to a favored class

Public unions subvert a Republican form of government

Public sector unions violate each and every one of the above characteristics of a Republican form of government. In many cities and states (primarily deep blue ones) unions exercise effective power over elections, schools, criminal justice and any other issues unions deem vital. During Covid, teachers’ unions shut down schools for years at the behest of unions and in direct opposition to the wishes of citizens. Their control of elections is particularly nefarious. They spend vast amounts of money and manpower to alter elections. Moreover, their funds are derived via one-sided collective bargaining with the same officials they put in office.

Elected officials are beholden to public sector unions and place unions’ interests ahead of those of the people they are elected to serve. They are not providing for the common welfare and unions are a favored class. Public unions’ political activity raises prima facie constitutional issues. Elected officials occupy a position of public trust and have a fiduciary duty to serve the public; this duty is in direct conflict with public sector unions. In many places, the machinery of American democracy is firmly in the clutches of powerful public sector unions. The iron-fisted grip of public unions is impervious to the electoral process and must be fixed by the courts.

It’s time for a constitutional challenge

It’s long past time to break the unholy and corrupt grip of public unions over our democracy. To be sure, it won’t be a slam dunk; but the roadmap presented in this post shows one way it can be done. Readers may judge for themselves the strength of a constitutional challenge as presented herein. What other choice do we have?

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

EMP Attack on America

May 21, 2023May 21, 2023 George Noga

The Chinese spy balloon was a wakeup call to America
GEORGE NOGA – MAY 21, 2023

The Chinese spy balloon saga brought to mind a subject I last wrote about in 2017, an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack on the USA. An EMP attack is the most lethal and least understood threat known to mankind. Since I last wrote about it, the threat has metastasized and our political leadership (both parties) has failed to take action to prevent an EMP attack, to limit the damage or to recover quickly.

EMP Attack Could Kill 300 Million Americans

An EMP bomb emits a high-intensity burst of electromagnetic (gamma ray) energy. Without getting hypertechnical, the pulse would knock out all power and electronics and cause irreversible damage to electrical transmission lines and any equipment with digital or electronic components and render them incapable of repair.

A single EMP weapon could kill 90% of Americans. Airplanes would fall from the sky. Vehicles with electronic components (after 1972) would stop. Water and sewer lines, electrical transmission lines and petroleum pipelines would fail. Food and fuel would run out. There would be no electricity, computers or communications.

The EMP blast would not kill many; the deaths would come from mass starvation. Cities maintain only a 3-day supply of food. The rule of law would be replaced by the law of the jungle. Few Americans would even know what happened.

How an EMP Attack Would Work

A suitcase-size EMP weapon could be smuggled into the USA on a container ship and placed on a river barge that travels to a place near the geographical center of the country. It could be launched by a weather balloon and detonated at the altitude calculated to wreak the most damage. It would not be immediately known who was responsible. Nuclear fuel emits a signature that can reveal where it was processed.

In 1962 the USA conducted a secret ionospheric nuclear test above Johnston Island which is 900 miles from Hawaii. Although this occurred in the era before electronics and computers, the effects were felt in Hawaii. At the instant of the blast, radios blacked out, telephones quit working and streetlights failed. And this was over 60 years ago in a test not designed for an electromagnetic pulse attack.

In the aftermath of an EMP attack, America would be a third world country with a population of under 50 million. We would be vulnerable to occupation by potential enemies. In the Forstchen trilogy (see infra) about an EMP attack, Mexico invades and reclaims all of the American southwest. It would take many years to recover as nearly all replacement equipment would need to come from abroad.

North Korea, Iran and Terrorists

The NoKos already have an EMP weapon and some of their missile tests have been rehearsals for an EMP attack. Iran soon will have one, as its nuclear program is closely aligned with the NoKos. It is not farfetched for terrorists to acquire such a device. EMPs are the quintessential asymmetrical weapon as our adversaries could inflict vastly more damage and they are less dependent on modern electronics.

Why is the USA so Vulnerable to EMP?

The most important role of government is protection from external threats. Yet, aside from some military sites, nothing in America is protected from EMPs. If we hardened our electrical grid and other critical infrastructure and stored backup equipment at all vulnerable sites we could recover quickly. Furthermore, a high level of preparedness would deter any possible enemies from launching an EMP attack.

I don’t know what such protection would cost, but it can’t be much north of $100 billion – a tiny fraction of what we have spent on Ukraine – and infinitesimally less than we have spent on Covid, the Inflation Reduction Act and climate madness. Our political class consternates over transgender sports rather than addressing an eminently preventable and existential threat to 300 million Americans. The Chinese spy balloon was a wakeup call to America and we hit the “snooze” button.

Note: William Forstchen wrote a popular trilogy about an EMP attack on America. Also, an NBC miniseries “Revolution” depicted the USA 15 years after an EMP attack.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Tale of Two Islands

May 14, 2023May 21, 2023 George Noga

Both had revolutions in 1959
GEORGE NOGA – MAY 14, 2023

I continually search for new ways to highlight the blessings of liberty (both political and economic) and the evils of collectivism in all its many manifestations. Nothing puts this into as sharp relief as the Tale of Two Islands from 1959 to 2023.

Revolutions occurred on two islands in 1959. Both countries were mountainous, less than 25% arable and relied on sugar exports. Both faced large, powerful and hostile enemies, separated by less than 100 miles of ocean. In both cases, their enemies cut off diplomatic and economic relations and threatened military invasions. However, one of the island nations was way ahead of the other in terms of health, education, income and nearly all other metrics of national well-being.

The country you likely are familiar with is Cuba, which in 1959 had nominal GDP of $2.0 billion and a population of 7 million, resulting in per capita GDP of $286. In 1959 the communist revolution led by Castro took over and abolished both political and economic freedom. Prior to its revolution, Cuba was far more prosperous than the other island; its GDP per capita was double that of the other island.

The second island nation is Taiwan. In 1959 its nominal GDP was $1.6 billion and its population 11 million, equating to per capita GDP of $145. In 1959 Taiwan underwent an economic revolution, adopting capitalism and a market economy. In the early 1970s Taiwan also had a political revolution – becoming a liberal democracy.

Fast forward to 2023. Cuba has GDP of $110 billion, a population of 11.3 million and (nominal) per capita GDP of $9,700, ranking 75th in the world. Out of 176 countries ranked, Cuba’s index of economic freedom ranks 175th in the world; only North Korea is worse. Taiwan has GDP of $900 billion and a population of 24 million for per capita GDP of $37,500 placing it 30th highest in the world. Its freedom index is 4th best in the world, much higher even than the USA which ranks 25th.

This tale of two islands illustrates the differences between freedom and capitalism versus tyranny and collectivism. Moreover, the GDP data for Cuba are suspect and Cuba’s true rank is likely one of the lowest in the world. Take home pay, according to most sources, is less than $100 per month. Cuba remains a brutal dictatorship filled with political prisons that engage in torture. Even its vaunted health care system is a failure. Cuban doctors botched Fidel’s treatment and doctors from Spain had to be flown in. Infant mortality is the worst in Latin America and is based on forced abortion of risky pregnancies and on not counting underweight births.

In 1959 Cuba’s per capita GDP was twice Taiwan’s; now it is 4 times lower, a swing of 800% – and the real data are far worse. But numbers alone do not tell the full story. The juxtaposition of Cuba and Taiwan from 1959 to the present is one of freedom versus repression, prosperity versus stagnation and hope versus desperation. Cuba today is a nihilistic society where 35% of pregnancies are aborted. It reveals the depth and breadth of the human and economic disaster wrought by collectivism.

Che Guevara may continue to adorn the tee shirts of clueless youth. Useful idiots, in and out of the media, may continue to offer encomia; but the Cuban people, when the regime finally crumbles, will render final judgment. Castro statues will be felled, murals will be defaced and the truth about the incalculable poverty and suffering of the Cuban people will be outed.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Cabbages, Kings, VATs and IRAs

May 7, 2023May 13, 2023 George Noga

Uncle Sam is coming for your IRA

GEORGE NOGA – MAY 7, 2023

My last post (April 30) about the spending crisis showed the government would need $900B in 2023 to stabilize the Debt/GDP ratio at around 100%. The national debt held by the public is $25T, soon to be $30T. Not uncoincidentally, US retirement assets including IRAs, 401(k)s and pensions total $30T – more about this infra.

When the spending crisis attains critical mass in a few years, the government, facing the mother of all crises, will desperately seek honeypots; after all, why let a ginormous crisis go to waste? After racking my brain, I can identify only three honeypots big enough to matter; these are retirement assets, a carbon tax and a VAT.

Raising Tax Rates and Cutting Costs Won’t Work

First, we must eliminate the two most obvious honeypots – higher marginal income tax rates and less spending; neither is big enough . The income tax is organically incapable of raising more revenue because of Hauser’s Law, which states that income tax revenue, regardless of tax rates, always is 18% of GDP – marginally higher or lower during booms and busts. Whether tax rates are 92% as they were in the 1950s, or 28% as they were under President Reagan, the government collects the same 18% of GDP. Note: Hauser’s Law works because people adjust their behavior as tax rates change.

It is possible to cut spending, but not near enough to come close to freezing the debt ratio. Reductions of $900B are needed and the only way to get there by cutting costs is to savage Social Security, Medicare and most other government programs. To realize savings of $900B would require 30% across-the-board cuts in all programs including Social Security and Medicare, excepting only defense and interest on the debt.

Value Added Tax (VAT)

For a VAT to raise $900B, the rate would have to be around 20% and would cost $7,000 per year per household. Since lower-income households likely would be exempt, the effective cost would exceed $10,000 per year per affected household. Politicians have proposed VATs before. Paul Ryan’s Roadmap contained a VAT as did Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan; one of those nines was a VAT – and those were putatively conservative Republicans. If you think a VAT is farfetched, think again. Politicians like VATs because they are stealth taxes, embedded in everything we buy.

Carbon Tax

A carbon tax, part of a cap and trade scheme, comes with political advantages. It also is a stealth tax, passed on to consumers by utility companies. It can be touted as a way to combat global warming and it can be targeted at higher income cohorts for class warfare. A carbon tax can start out small and easily be ramped up.

IRAs, 401(k)s and Pensions

The biggest (by far) honeypot is pension assets. The Secure Act got the camel’s nose under the tent by requiring annuities be offered in all retirement plans – a precursor to mandatory annuitization, whereby government seizes IRAs in exchange for a government annuity. Think this is farfetched? Poland, Hungary, Ireland, Bulgaria and France, through one artifice or another, have seized money from pension assets. In the end, Uncle Sam, like Willy Sutton, must go where the money is; that’s your IRA.

Putting it All Together

As the nation is rent amidst the chaos and anarchy of the spending crisis, Americans will be of a mindset to go along with any government actions offering hope. Likely there will be a combination of actions such as listed below. Remember, it must amount to at least $7,000 for every household, every year with no ending point.

Enact a VAT at a modest teaser rate and then rapidly jack up the rate
Attack pension assets, such as requiring a portion be invested in government bonds, capping the size of accounts and forced annuitization
Pass a (cap and trade) carbon tax that will cause power bills to skyrocket
Make small, mostly cosmetic and back-end loaded, spending cuts
Raise Social Security age to 70, convert Medicare to a premium support model

Sadly, it won’t be enough; at best, it buys us a few more years. Even if we find the $900B to freeze the ratio, we have not solved the problem; we have merely stopped it from getting worse. Moreover, the added taxes will gravely harm economic growth; we will be caught up in a vicious circle. America will become a no-growth European-style welfare state; our country will be forever changed and our children and children’s children will be relegated to lives of quiet desperation.

Thanks for reading More Liberty – Less Government!

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Spending Crisis Truths

April 30, 2023May 2, 2023 George Noga

The crisis is not economic; it is moral

Spending Crisis Truths

GEORGE NOGA – APR 30, 2023

Much has been written about America’s debt crisis, including by me. I prefer to call it a spending crisis because, absent runaway spending, the deficits and debt would disappear. This post strips away all the superfluous background noise and distills all you need to know about the spending crisis into a few unassailable truths.

Truth #1: America Passed the Point of No Return

When Titanic first hit the iceberg, passengers barely noticed. The ship remained afloat for 4 more hours, but its fate was sealed; there was no way to unhit the iceberg. So it is with the spending crisis. America hit the Debt/GDP iceberg sometime during the past few years when the ratio neared 100% on its way to the moon. As with Titanic, life may appear normal for a while, perhaps even for years; but our fate is sealed. During the thousands of years governments have borrowed money, none with a debt ratio above 100% have recovered without calamity and a lost generation.

Truth #2: Few Understand the Seriousness of the Problem

Only an infinitesimal segment of Americans know what is coming. The spending crisis will not hit home until it affects their daily lives. We are far past possible bromides such as a balanced budget amendment or debt ceiling limitation.

Some economists suggest freezing the Debt/GDP ratio at its current level; however, they have not done the math. To freeze the ratio means debt cannot increase faster than GDP, which is forecast to grow at 2%. That means debt could increase only 2%, or no more than $500B. The CBO estimates the 2023 deficit at $1.4 trillion; meaning spending would have to be slashed $900B to limit the debt increase to $500B, i.e. to freeze the ratio. The entire budget for non-defense discretionary spending is $900B, meaning such spending would have to be cut 100%, and that is merely to freeze the ratio, not to lower it. Raising taxes could plug part of the gap, but that would hurt the economy and slow GDP growth, meaning the spending cuts then would have to be even more that $900B – a vicious circle.

Truth #3: Great Pain Inevitable

No matter what comes, the crisis is existential – to invoke a vastly overworked term. As shown supra, freezing the ratio would mean $900B in cuts (or tax increases) now. If we wait until the US no longer can borrow to finance the deficit, it will be worse by an order of magnitude. The ensuing crisis will have dire geopolitical consequences as well as likely social unrest as Social Security, Medicare and countless other government programs are scaled back or eliminated. There would be no borrowing capacity in event of a natural disaster or war. Even a debt default would not provide much relief as future spending still would have to be brought into balance.

Truth #4: Debt Limit Determined by Markets Not Congress

In the end, Congress is irrelevant. The real US debt limit is determined by markets. When there are no buyers for government debt, the jig is up. It is possible markets already have begun to speak. Foreign governments are now net sellers of US debt and high interest rates may, in part, be attributable to an added default risk premium.

Truth #5: If Something Can’t go on Forever, It Won’t

The spending crisis is a poster child for the above quote from economist Herb Stein. As shown supra, it is impossible even to freeze the ratio. That means it is destined to get worse each year until it goes into a death spiral.

Truth #6: Crisis is Moral – Not Economic

I call it a spending crisis, but at its heart it is a moral crisis. Americans chose – whether consciously or unconsciously matters not – to take from our children and our grandchildren rather than to control our spending. We refused to make tough choices, falsely believing we could buy social peace. We elected politicians who promised us the moon was made of Stilton and whose favorite exercise is kicking cans down the road. We chose – and are continuing to choose – to condemn our progeny to a dystopian Clockwork Orange future.

Worst of all, we stole from future generations, not to save America from natural disaster, world war or Armageddon, but to pay for a perpetual party, which continues unabated today even as Americans whistle past the graveyard.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Debt Limit Kabuki

April 23, 2023May 2, 2023 George Noga

The ending is preordained

Debt Limit Kabuki

GEORGE NOGA – APR 23, 2023

The spending crisis is one of my signature issues; the current hot button is the debt limit. Republicans want to use the debt limit as a wedge to reduce spending, while Democrats want a straight up or down vote on raising the debt ceiling. But don’t be fooled by all the hullabaloo and hyperbole that will play out between now and summer. It is a kabuki, i.e. a stylized ritual mixing drama with tradition.

To be sure, there will be drama. Will the GOP be able to hold its caucus together, given its razor-thin margin, when they are being demonized daily by Democrats and their media sycophants? Will their resolve hold when they are being accused – as they surely will be – of shredding Social Security and Medicare, starving school children and throwing granny over a cliff? What will the Dems offer in the way of greater fiscal responsibility? Will government services be cut – if so, which ones? Will the government default on the debt? Finally, what will the final deal look like?

But, like any good kabuki, all the players already know their parts and the ending is preordained. Following is how the kabuki is scripted.

House Republicans stay united until things get really dicey. As vital government services are cut and Dems run vicious attack ads in the districts of vulnerable Republicans, GOP moderates pressure Speaker McCarthy to make a deal.
Biden will cut government services that most directly affect citizens with the aim of making their lives as uncomfortable as possible. He will close national parks during the peak summer vacation season. He will cut the FAA, reducing air travel to a trickle. He maliciously will grind the economy to a halt.
Biden will go to Defcon-1 to threaten default on the debt and all that augers; but there will be no actual default. Section Four of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution prevents the government from defaulting on principal or interest. Hence, default is a bridge too far – even for the Biden Administration.
In the end, both sides get what they want; the debt ceiling is raised and phantom spending cuts are made. Americans are beguiled into believing something meaningful happened and that America is on a sounder fiscal trajectory. Everyone involved claims victory and government returns to business as usual.

The final deal will include some putative spending reductions that amount to much less than meets the eye. The phantom savings will consist of:

Funds already appropriated but not yet spent. These funds would not have been spent anyway, and this so-called reduction is completely illusory.
Savings in the out years of the 10-year budget window. These back-end loaded cuts are legerdemain and can (will) be reinstated in future years.
Faux reductions based on inflated future projected increases. For example, if spending was projected to increase 8%, they cut it to 5% and claim a huge cut.
Various accounting artifices, gimmicks and one-time adjustments.
Tax increases (mainly symbolic) to assuage Dems so that they can claim victory. However, there is a good chance the tax increases will never materialize.
Real and immediate spending cuts, if any, are small and insignificant.

What Will Be the Effect on America’s Fiscal Trajectory?

The debt limit kabuki will be nothing but fiscal maskirovka and prestidigitation. There will be much sound and fury; but, in the end, America’s fiscal trajectory will change only imperceptibly. Cuts to entitlements, defense and interest on the debt all are off the table. That leaves only about $900 billion, or 15%, of non-defense discretionary spending. Even if Congress could cut 10%, that would be only $90 billion per year – a tiny ripple in America’s fiscal pond. If spending returns to its pre-pandemic level (GOP position), the deficit trajectory also would be unchanged. You will know Congress is serious only when it tackles entitlements.

Remember, as the high theater of the debt limit kabuki plays out to its preordained conclusion over the next several months, you already know the ending!

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Titanic Myths

April 16, 2023April 23, 2023 George Noga

Setting the record straight

Titanic Myths

GEORGE NOGA – APR 16, 2023

Although Titanic sank 111 years ago yesterday, many Promethean myths (Prometheus was a Titan) reverberate even today. Most accounts (especially the DiCaprio film) are ignorant, dishonest and politically motivated. This post sets the record straight.

Myth: Capitalism (Greed) Caused the Loss of Life

The PC narrative is White Star Lines (WSL) did not have enough lifeboats due to greed (cost) or aesthetics. The real blame lies with inept government regulation by the British Board of Trade (BOT). The designer, builder and WSL all deferred to the BOT about the number of lifeboats, as it was the unchallenged authority. However, BOT regulations were 20 years old and enacted when 10,000 tons and 20 lifeboats was the norm; Titanic was 46,238 tons. Bureaucrats were rewarded for issuing new regulations, not updating old ones. No one challenged the BOT. Once government becomes involved, common sense and personal responsibility disappear.

Myth: First Class Passengers Got Preferential Treatment

Dissecting the data, 74% of women and 20% of men survived. However, 44% of first class passengers were women versus 23% third class. When adjusting for gender, the survival rates between first and third class were about the same. A third class female was 41% more likely to survive than a first class male. Third class passengers were more reluctant to leave the ship and part with baggage; also, their location aboard ship made survival more problematic. When third class passengers reached the boat deck, they were accorded the same treatment as all others. Survival was not about class; it was about women and children – nearly all of whom were saved.

Myth: Male aggression Hurt Survival of Women and Children

The number of men who survived is cited as evidence of male aggression. There was lifeboat capacity for all women and children and 550 men. There were many more men than women on board. If one man were loaded onto a lifeboat for each woman and child, all women and children would have been saved. Moreover, lifeboats would have been loaded quicker and with less fear, keeping families together and saving more lives. Male behavior, far from being aggressive, resulted in more than 200 fewer men surviving than should have been the case.

Myth: The Media – Then and Now – Fairly Report the Facts

Most contemporaneous media accounts were tainted by laziness, i.e. the failure to properly understand the data. Present day media stories hew to a politically correct narrative of blaming capitalism, greed, class warfare and male aggression for the calamity. The movie Titanic falsely depicted third class passengers forcibly barricaded to keep them from reaching lifeboats. Nor was anyone shot. The crew and passengers were stereotyped in the worst possible way, despite acting heroically and fearlessly in the fact of near-certain death. Note: Fox (which made the movie) has since apologized to families of those falsely portrayed in the movie.

Enduring Lessons of Titanic

First and Foremost, the Titanic disaster was a failure of government, not of capitalism. The media are feckless and lazy; it is far easier and more dramatic to blame the ship’s designer, builder and owner rather than an amorphous, faceless gaggle of bureaucrats. Nearly without exception, the media falsely portrays a politically correct narrative that blames capitalism, class warfare and toxic masculinity.

Source Note: Data for survival rates were taken from the formal investigation conducted by the British government as reported on several websites.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Equity Means Socialism

April 9, 2023April 23, 2023 George Noga

What if everyone was equal?

Equity Means Socialism
By GEORGE NOGA – APRIL 9, 2023

Collectivism has gone by many names: socialism, communism, fascism, Marxism, democratic socialism, Utopianism, Fabianism, progressivism – and now, the most mellifluous term of them all – equity. Despite its euphony, equity is just another code word intended for maskirovka and to make socialism palatable – just as politically correct hospitals refer to death as a negative patient outcome.

The horrors of socialism, in all its names and iterations, has been the subject of dystopian works such as Atlas Shrugged, Animal Farm, 1984 and Brave New World. Herein, I take a fresh look at what equity could look like in the 21st century.

Harrison Bergeron

Kurt Vonnegut’s short story, Harrison Bergeron, published in 1961 provides one spine-chilling perspective. It is set in the year 2081, after the 213th Amendment to the Constitution is ratified making every American equal. A powerful new government czar, the Handicapper-General, strictly enforces the law so that everyone performs at the lowest common level. Everyone is handicapped. Those who are good looking must wear masks; those who are strong or athletic must carry weights; those who are smart must wear earbuds to disrupt their thought process. For example, more proficient ballerinas are weighted down and masked to counteract their gracefulness and appearance so the audience won’t feel bad about their own appearance.

The protagonist is 14-year-old Harrison Bergeron, a genius, tall, incredibly handsome, athletic, strong, artistic and brave. The Handicapper-General forces Harrison to wear earphones, glasses to cut his vision by 50%, disfiguring makeup, blackened teeth, a red rubber nose and 300 pounds of weight to compensate for his prodigious strength. However, Harrison decides to live unimpeded by government interference. Note: There have been several movies made of Harrison Bergeron.

Achieving Perfect Equity

Following is my idea for how perfect equity could be achieved today? The most progressive minds in America could create a master algorithm incorporating all known markers of success and failure. The algorithm would take into account, inter alia, DNA, race, gender, sexual orientation, height, weight, IQ, life expectancy and appearance. Exogenous factors in the algorithm would be birth place, social class, family income and educational level.

The end result of the master algorithm would be a polygenic score assigned to everyone at birth. Those with positive scores would pay a polygenic tax, while those with negative scores would receive a corresponding benefit. The taxes and benefits would vary in direct proportion to how much the scores were positive or negative. The scores would be reevaluated and adjusted periodically so that any inequalities that emerged would be corrected. Done correctly, this could make everyone equal.

Mythical Germanic Kingdom

In the real world perfect equality is a chimera. If all wealth were equalized, within a few years the wealth distribution would return to the status quo ante. Equity is merely the latest stalking horse for socialism. Interestingly, no sci-fi (or other) writers have ever written a positive story about a society where everyone is perfectly equal.

Something in the human condition makes some people (usually those with nothing to lose) dream of collectivism – the term du jour being equity. This post provided a peek at what perfect equity might look like – Harrison Bergeron with a 300-pound weight and algorithmic polygenic scores. How much of that kind of equity do you want?

Despite the failure of all forms of collectivism throughout the ages, progressives dream of a world, like the mythical Germanic kingdom, where candy grows on trees, lemonade flows in rivers and the fattest, ugliest and stupidest person is king.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

March 26, 2023March 29, 2023 George Noga

New York spends $6,400 (125%) more per person than Florida – and for what?

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

By: George Noga – March 26, 2023

Refugees are fleeing en masse from NY to FL, and it is easy to see why. The mystery is why everyone doesn’t. Let’s begin with some numbers which reveal much (but definitely not all) of the calculus for bolting from NY. A resident of Miami pays no (as in zip, zero, nada) state or local income tax, while denizens of the big apple pay 14.8%. New Yorkers pay 8.875% in sales tax versus 6% in Miami. Florida’s constitution caps residential real estate taxes which generally hover around only 1% of value.

The NY budget calls for spending $227 billion ($11,500 per resident); the FL budget contains spending of $115 billion ($5,100 per capita). NY spends twice as much as FL even though FL has 2.5 million more people. Florida’s economy is growing at twice the rate of NY and its unemployment rate is half that of NY. Estate taxes in NY are 16%, while FL has no state inheritance or estate tax. And a moving van costs 500% more in NY. But there is much more to the story than is revealed by the numbers alone.

New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Paying double in taxes might be okay if NY was a Garden of Eden and its sky-high taxes resulted in la dolce vita for its inhabitants. However, New York has toxic governance based on identity politics, Kafkaesque regulation, stratospheric living costs, mandatory unionization and crumbling infrastructure. Its failed government schools are run by unions and are petri dishes for dysfunction and social pathologies. Crime is rampant while gun control is uber-strict. There is massive public debt, unfunded liabilities and tanking credit ratings. NY bollixed the pandemic response and, in obeisance to teachers’ unions, shuttered schools for years causing irreparable harm.

New York is a woke sanctuary state that tolerates homelessness, open drug use and human filth. NY decriminalizes arson, looting and shoplifting, while defunding police and eliminating cash bail. NY pits people against each other based on race, income, age, ethnicity and gender. NY’s stagnating economy hemorrhages its most productive citizens. NY schools teach the 1619 Project, CRT and encourage young children to question their gender without parental involvement. Housing is scarce, dilapidated and costly with rent control and eviction bans. Environmentalism run amok doubles the cost of energy. New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Each and every one of the horrors of life in New York listed above is non-existent in the free state of Florida. Will the last person to leave NY kindly turn off the lights?

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us