MLLG

China Will Never Catch America

George Noga

China Will Never Catch America

China faces a constellation of overwhelming troubles

GEORGE NOGA
OCT 1, 2023

 

In my post of April 29, 2018, I wrote the following – an incredibly bold prediction that defied all conventional wisdom. Read that post on my website: www.mllg.us.

“China is not nearly as formidable economically as the chattering classes and the mainstream media would have you believe. Its GDP will never catch the US.”

In 2018 it was universally accepted China would pass the US; the only question was how soon. This post revisits that question 5 years later with updated data.

architectural photograph of lighted city sky

At the end of 2023 US GDP will be $26 trillion; China’s will be $19 trillion. If China’s economy grows at 3% and the US grows at 2%, China would not surpass the US until sometime after 2050. If the US grows at only 1.5% (half China’s rate), China would not pass the US until circa 2045. However, long before 2045 China’s economy will falter for all the reasons listed infra. I am more confident now than I was 5 years ago that the Chinese economy never will surpass that of the United States.

Moreover, the true measure of an economy is not nominal GDP, but per capita GDP. The GDP per capita for the US is $70,000; China’s is $13,000, approximately equal to the world average of 200+ countries. The US is greater by a factor of 5.4 times. China cannot even dream of parity with the US. In world rankings of GDP per capita, the US leads all major nations; China is 64th in the world – behind the likes of Panama, Uruguay and Costa Rica – and barely ahead of Equatorial Guinea. Given enough cavemen, their GDP could pass the US – but they still would be living in caves.

Sources of China’s Economic Woes

China faces a constellation of overwhelming economic and political headwinds.

  • Population: Working age population peaked in 2011. It will decrease 25% more by 2050. China will lose 600 million people by the end of this century. China’s fertility rate of 1.15 is the lowest in the world.
  • Demographics: The effects of the one-child policy are coming home to roost. The number of elderly will increase by 300 million prior to 2050. Gender selection has led to 140 million more men than women – another ticking timebomb.
  • Debt: China is burdened with large and rising debt. Local governments no longer can fund infrastructure. There is a debt bubble on real estate waiting to burst.
  • Youth Unemployment: This metric is over 20% and is so bad China quit reporting the data; some estimates are for youth unemployment to hit 50% within one year. The government is telling college graduates to settle for blue-collar jobs. Xi Jinping said young people should work hard jobs and learn to “eat bitterness”.
  • Trade: Exports are down 15% and the US and Europe are reconfiguring their supply chains to exclude China. The US placed bans on technology exports.
  • Ideology: Abandonment of markets and free enterprise in favor of communist ideals is creating serious economic dysfunctions and resource misallocations.
  • Empire: All empires in history have broken up. China is an empire including Tibet, Manchuria, Inner Mongolia and the Uighurs; there is a growing Muslim population in its western provinces. Eventually, China will break apart.

China’s troubles, however serious, do not mean it will be less of a future geopolitical threat. In fact, it may be more of a threat as its manifest weaknesses may lead to more aggressive foreign adventurism. Nonetheless, it is increasingly unlikely China ever will catch the US economy in nominal terms. Regarding GDP per capita, the US is 540% of China and Xi Jinping can’t even dream of catching the USA. China will have all it can handle to remain ahead of Equatorial Guinea.

Horn Tooting

A man I once knew was fond of saying: “He who tooteth not his own horn, his horn goeth untooteth.” Pardon me while I toot my own horn. That I was nearly alone in 2018 in my predictions about China was not a lucky guess. My posts have been prescient about many other things including, inter alia, climate change, the spending crisis, elections, school choice, progressivism, school shootings, transgender issues, organic food and GMOs, environmentalism and population collapse.

I attribute my record to being a trained financial analyst, following the facts, being logical and thinking outside the box. Please consider forwarding my posts, or better yet adding a free subscription, to family members and friends. In the meantime, I will continue to follow the facts and logic wherever they may lead.

Thank you again for reading my blog and for all your support over the years.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Biden By The Numbers – The numbers speak for themselves

George Noga

Biden By The Numbers

The numbers speak for themselves

GEORGE NOGA
SEP 24, 2023

Whenever I analyze anything, I always begin with the numbers. Perhaps that is attributable to my background in math and financial analysis. In some cases, ipsa loquitur, i.e. the numbers speak for themselves. That is the case with the Biden family business – the Biden brand if you will. Following are the numbers; they all are as reported by many reliable sources and are presented in no particular order.

different banknotes
Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash
  • $20 million: Known payments to Biden from foreign sources
  • 3: Pseudonyms used by Joe Biden
  • 20: Joe Biden conference calls with Hunter’s foreign business associates
  • 9: Biden family members receiving money from foreign sources
  • $1 billion: Taxpayer money used to shake down Ukraine
  • 5,400: Joe Biden secret emails using phony accounts
  • $50 million: Total believed to have been received from foreign sources
  • 20: Shell corporations and LLCs used to launder money
  • $5 million: Real estate owned by Joe Biden despite only government salary
  • 15: Trips on Air Force Two by Hunter
  • $83,000: Monthly payment to Hunter from Burisma
  • $10 million: Burisma claims to have paid Joe and Hunter Biden
  • 150+: Treasury Department Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs)
  • 50%: Hunter’s income kicked back to the big guy
  • 17: Recorded calls to/from Burisma – 15 Hunter and 2 Joe
  • 7: Foreign countries that paid the Bidens
  • 5-10: Burner phones
  • 3: Whistleblowers
  • 12: Foreign bank accounts (exact number not yet determined)
  • 4: Documented dinners and golf outings with Hunter’s foreign associates
  • $26,000: Monthly rental for Hunter’s house in Malibu
  • 16: Joe Biden recorded lies about involvement in Hunter’s foreign business
  • 1: Laptop from hell

 

MLLG

Constitution Day 2023 – Slouching toward a post constitutional America

George Noga

Constitution Day 2023

Slouching toward a post constitutional America

GEORGE NOGA
SEP 17, 2023

Our Constitution is 236 years old today, quite an accomplishment considering most constitutions fail within 20 years. The US Constitution is the best charter of government ever to define the relationship between man and the state. It may be the best document ever penned by the hand of man. It is based on a fundamentally correct understanding of human nature and its system of separation of powers and checks and balances is pure genius. Its first three words, we the people, the only ones in supersized script, are breathtaking. In an era of despots and monarchs, nothing was more radical than the notion that all power flowed from we the people.

We The people text
Photo by Anthony Garand on Unsplash

Regrettably, our celebration of Constitution Day 2023 is not one of unleavened joy. Instead, we are slouching toward a post constitutional America. The Constitution is merely 4,543 words on 4 sheets of paper. But alas, the Constitution is not self-enforcing; it requires defenders in every generation as it tends to get diluted over time. Today, the rule of law and equal justice under the law are under siege by progressives who believe the ends justify the means. They weaponize the state to reward friends and to punish political opponents. They attack the Electoral College, Supreme Court, filibuster, Senate and even our first amendment rights.

Progressives attack the Constitution mainly because it makes it slow and difficult to enact change. This is not a flaw of the Constitution; rather, that is its greatest strength. In order for a new law to take effect, the Constitution requires 5 steps.

  1. House of Representatives: Designed to reflect the current will of the people.
  2. Senate: Originally senators were appointed by and represented states; only one-third were elected every 2 years. Senators’ six-year terms (and also the filibuster) were intended to immunize Americans from transitory passions.
  3. President: The president, elected by all the people, must sign any new law.
  4. Supreme Court: Justices, appointed for life, make sure laws are constitutional.
  5. Juries: When laws involve criminal elements, juries are sovereign and may nullify laws by refusing to convict, as they have done numerous times such as with fugitive slave laws, prohibition, anti-war protestors and sodomy laws.

The drafters of the Constitution were extraordinarily well versed in history and had justifiable contempt for democracy, which they regarded as a form of tyranny – like two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. The French Revolution instantly actualized the will of the people; how did that work out? More recently, in the former Yugoslavia, the Serb majority demanded immediate actualization which resulted in chaos, genocide and 140,000 deaths; how did that work out?

The Constitution was designed to make it difficult to pass laws. Our founders believed in limited government and that laws should be enacted only when absolutely necessary, enjoy widespread support and not reflect transient majoritarian passions.

Constitutions are merely words on paper

One nation’s constitution guaranteed freedom of religion, speech, the press and the right to assembly. It provided for the direct election of all government bodies. It promised equal rights in political, economic and cultural spheres.

Another country’s constitution guarantees democratic rights and liberties and the right to vote and hold office. All citizens are guaranteed freedom of speech, of the press, assembly, religion, travel and association.

The first constitution referenced above is from the former Soviet Union; the second is from North Korea. Our American Constitution differs only slightly from those of the USSR and North Korea in promising rights and liberties to the people. However, they all are merely words on paper. If Americans in every generation do not vigorously defend our Constitution, we will end up just like the USSR and North Korea.

A republic if we can keep it

Progressives seek to abolish 236 years of liberty because they believe they know what’s best for everyone and are willing to shred the Constitution to achieve it. The words of the Constitution, no matter how mellifluous, won’t protect us any more than they protected the people of the USSR or North Korea. They are merely words on paper.

Benjamin Franklin’s words are just as poignant today as when he uttered them in 1787. We have a 236 year old constitutional republic, “if we can keep it”. Our beloved Constitution will survive only if we keep it in our hearts and minds and pass that fervor on to the next generation. It is up to us. Happy Constitution Day 2023!

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

 

MLLG

Eighty Years and Counting – Lessons learned over a lifetime

George Noga

Eighty Years and Counting
Lessons learned over a lifetime
GEORGE NOGA JULY 23, 2023

 

As I begin my ninth decade on this orb, I am taking the liberty to share what I have learned about human nature and, more particularly, the relationship of man to the state. Following are the top ten lessons I have learned.

We The people text
Photo by Anthony Garand on Unsplash

  1. The US Constitution is the best document ever to define the relationship between man and the state and it may be the finest document ever crafted by the hand of man. It embodies a fundamentally correct understanding of human nature by imposing an ingenious system of checks, balances and separation of powers. Our Constitution is 236 years old; half of all constitutions fail within 20 years.
  2. Government is inherently evil as our founders well understood; however, limited government is necessary to prevent an even greater evil, i.e. anarchy. Because government is evil, we want as little as possible – mainly for security from foreign and domestic violence. Since the evil is inherent, government can’t be reformed. The only way to reduce the evil is to reduce the funding; nothing else works.
  3. Government fails because it is unalterably opposed to human nature. Its incentives are diametrically misaligned with the public interest. Government is top-down, highly coercive, ignores consumer preferences and artificially creates winners and losers; it does not attract talented, hard-working people. It is rife with waste, fraud, abuse and corruption. Business succeeds because it is the opposite of every one of the above described characteristics of government.
  4. The science of public sector economics explains why government is predestined to fail. The goals and incentives of public officials are horribly misaligned with the public good. That explains why taxes are opaque, borrowing is always preferable to taxes, spending is out of control and failed programs never end.
  5. All forms of collectivism are doomed to fail for all the reasons cited above; however, socialism deviates far more egregiously from human nature. It inevitably results in starvation amidst plenty. Colonists in Jamestown and Plymouth chose death over socialism. Once they had private property rights however, these very same people became inventive, industrious and prosperous.
  6. People are incapable of sacrifice absent a serious danger that directly and immediately affects their lives. We refuse to act even in face of a clear and inevitable disaster. The best example of this is the coming spending crisis.
  7. The success of capitalism sows the seeds of its own destruction. This was first posed as a question by economist Joseph Schumpeter; we have resoundingly answered his question in the affirmative. America has become so affluent its citizens have lost the connection with what created their prosperity in the first place. As Steinbeck wrote: “Americans can stand anything nature throws at us save only plenty. If I wanted to destroy a nation, I would give it too much.”
  8. Universal school choice – where the money always follows the child – is the only way to improve education. Absolutely nothing else will work due to government failure and public sector economics explained supra. Parents always have the best interest of their children at heart; teachers and education bureaucrats don’t.
  9. Most of our formerly trusted American institutions have become hopelessly woke and corrupted; they include: entertainment, media, corporations, military, sports, fact-checkers, education, government, science, criminal justice, immigration, universities, academia, social media and even religion.
  10. The Gods of the Copybook Headings¹, with terror and slaughter, will return. Americans have not only ignored the wisdom carefully learned and handed down throughout the ages, they have flaunted it. Instead, we worship the false gods of wokeness, debt and deficits, climate madness, political correctness and identity politics. Throughout human experience, whenever people worship false gods, the Gods of the Copybook Headings, always return – with terror and slaughter!
1

Taken from the poem of the same name by Rudyard Kipling. In Kipling’s time, children learned to write using a copybook. Each page of the copybook had a heading which embodied some proverb or kernel of wisdom such as “All that glitters is not gold” and “A stitch in time saves nine”. The children would then copy the headings into their copybook to perfect their handwriting.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

The Disney Magic Is Gone

George Noga

The Disney Magic Is Gone
Walt Disney Company at 100; Disney World at 50

George Noga July 16, 2023

 

This year is the centennial of the Walt Disney Company and the semicentennial of Walt Disney World and all decidedly is not magical in the mouse house. Micky Mouse has become hyperwoke leading many customers to smell a rat. This is not your father’s Disney or not even your big brother’s Disney.

two people in clothing

Parental Rights in Education Act (PREA)

Disney’s wokeness became a national issue only when the company took a very public and unnecessary stand against the PREA, about which Disney advanced a false narrative and called it the Don’t Say Gay bill. The PREA simply bans age inappropriate sexual content from grades K through 3 and enjoys the support of 80% of Floridians. However, Disney’s slouch into wokeness began long before the PREA; to wit:

  • Disney forced employees into a CRT training program that denounced America as racist; white employees had to prepare a white privilege checklist.
  • They inserted a gay agenda into programming for young kids.
  • They tracked programming to make sure it included enough transgender, queer, non-binary and asexual characters. Fifty percent had to come from these groups.
  • Disney abolished use of terms such as ladies and gentlemen and boys and girls.
  • They cancelled or transformed Jungle Cruise because of Trader Sam; they changed Splash Mountain because it used Song of the South; and they made changes to Pirates of the Caribbean for political correctness.
  • Cast members now may wear exposed political symbols.
  • Disney employees have been arrested for child porn and even child rape. In at least a few cases, Disney was complicit in helping offenders evade arrest.
  • Disney-owned ESPN fires any employee who does not strictly adhere to its woke agenda and supports biological men (trans women) competing in girls’ sports.
  • Disney makes edgy movies like Turning Red that are steeped in controversy.

    They no longer are purveyors of content celebrating the innocence of childhood; instead, they are grooming children for a highly sexualized world.

  • Virtually every page of its SEC reports is laced with references to ESG issues.
  • The company is hypocritical. It continues to do business with China but refuses to denounce, or even to acknowledge, that it is a totalitarian, oppressive regime. They attack Floridians but won’t criticise the Chinese Communist Party.

The Price of Wokeness

It is hard to fathom Disney’s self-destruction. Why would any business intentionally stake so much on something so innocuous, not to mention popular, as the PREA? Why would any company intentionally go out of its way to alienate 50% or more of its customers? Why would any business intentionally choose to be on the losing side of an issue that the vast majority of families, of all political persuasions, support? Why would any company intentionally devalue the iconic characters loved by generations of children and families over the past one hundred years? Why would any sane business endanger its copyright (valued at billions of dollars) on Mickey Mouse?

The Walt Disney Company has paid, and continues to pay, a staggering price for its woke agenda. Disney stock has nosedived from $197 per share in 2021 to $88 on July 6, 2023 (when this is being written) – a drop of $109 per share or 55%. Its market capitalization has plummeted from over $350 billion to $161 billion – a stunning loss of nearly $200 billion to its shareholders. The Florida legislature has revoked Disney’s special taxing district and will hike its taxes and begin safety inspections.

But the worst is yet to come. Up to now, Congress has given Disney extensions of its copyright to Mickey Mouse and other characters. However, after 95 years the copyright extension for Steamboat Willey (Mickey Mouse) is set to expire next year. Many members of Congress are balking at granting a further extension. If Congress fails to act, Mickey Mouse soon could be in the public domain.

The Disney spell is broken and the magic is gone; there will be no fairy tale ending. Wokeness destroyed a once admired and iconic American company. The downfall of Disney is destined to be a case study in business schools for decades to come.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Million Dollar Classrooms

George Noga

New York spends $1 million per classroom
GEORGE NOGA
JUL 9, 2023

I have been involved in the school choice movement (one of my signature issues) on the local, state and national level as an activist and observer for 30 years. I am also a CPA and can reconstruct the true spending by government schools. This post: (1) computes the real amount spent per classroom; (2) compares classroom costs in Florida and New York; and (3) analyzes the results in a unique format that shows the money wasted by government schools. Note: My 3/26/23 post compares FL and NY taxes and spending; you may read it is on my website or in the Substack archives.

woman standing in front of children

Spending Per Classroom in New York

Based on a composite of several sources, New York State spends $30,700 per student; but that is just the starting point. To the base amount of $30,700 must be added:

  • Education spending elsewhere in the state budget and off the budget
  • Federal funding – which usually runs around 10% of total spending
  • Grants from governments, NGOs and others estimated at 5%
  • Funds paid by parents and students also estimated at 5%
  • Proceeds from bonds and other debt instruments
  • Pensions and health care for retirees
  • Debt service on school and mixed purpose bonds

Without an audit it is impossible to know precisely how much all of the above items add to the basic amount. Fortunately, someone already has done the work. The CATO Institute published a study of public school spending in several districts across the USA. CATO determined the average off-budget spending was 44%, while the minimum found in any district was 19%. Placing NY somewhere in the middle of this range, I add 30% or $9,300 to the $30,700 base amount, which results in total spending of $40,000 per student. Since the NY average classroom size is 25, the total spending per classroom is your basic one million dollars. BINGO!

It is not an accident that no human being is able to determine the actual spending on government schools. Educrats and unions intentionally make the data as opaque as possible to prevent anyone knowing the true spending. Despite the gargantuan spending, the quality of education is dismal and no one is happy. Teachers caterwaul about pay; educrats grumble about budgets; and parents flee en masse.

Spending Per Classroom in FL and Compared To NY

Spending data for Florida also is opaque as the funding comes from myriad sources. To be fair, I took data from several sources and chose the one with the highest spending, which is $11,000 per student (national average is $13,200). Adding the same 30% as New York to cover all off budget spending, means FL is spending an added $3,300, equalling total spending of $14,300. Again assuming the same 25 student class size as NY, results in spending $357,000 per classroom.

NY spends $643,000 more or 280% that of FL for each and every classroom. It costs nearly triple to educate each student in government schools in NY compared to FL. Moreover, the quality of education in FL is much higher than NY when using an apples-to-apples comparison. When deconstructing students by race and other metrics (and then reaggregating them), FL ranks #3 in the USA while NY is toward the bottom. People in NY are paying nearly triple and for vastly inferior results.

Analysis of Spending Per Classroom

To the best of my knowledge, no other source uses spending on the classroom level; they all use per student spending. However, looking at the issue by classroom reveals truths that otherwise might be masked. Let’s take a dive into the data.

In NY the average teacher salary is $80,000; when allowing an added 25% to cover benefits, a teacher costs $100,000. Of course, we also must provide for certain schoolwide expenses such as a principal, some assistants, guidance counselors, computer support, PE, art and music teachers, librarian, custodial and support staff. This should add no more than another $100,000 per classroom. And yes, we must allow for the cost of district administration which should add no more than another $50,000 per classroom – raising the total to $250,000 for each NY classroom.

Where is the other $750,000 per NY classroom? NY spends $3.00 outside the classroom for every $1 spent in the classroom, while FL spends $1.50 outside the classroom for each classroom dollar spent. Elite private schools spend about 50 cents outside the classroom for every classroom dollar. The champs are parochial schools, which spend only ten cents outside the classroom for every classroom dollar. Our local parochial school district has 15,000 students and only 3 full time administrators.

The Bottom Line

Waste, fraud, abuse and corruption are endemic in government schools which are incapable of reform. As the juxtaposition of NY and FL shows, spending and quality are uncorrelated and, in fact, negatively correlated. The only solution is universal school choice where the money follows the student. Nothing else will work.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Independence Day 2023

George Noga

Independence Day 2023
We are moving rapidly toward two Americas
GEORGE NOGA
JUL 2, 2023

On this, my eightieth Independence Day, I am privileged to have lived at the best time to be an American – a view widely shared by those of my generation and of all political persuasions. However, my joy is tinctured with despair because, along with my contemporaries, I believe the future will be worse and our children and grandchildren will inhabit a multi-polar, dystopian world of wokism, climate madness, existential debt crisis, lost generation, geopolitical threats and a rapidly approaching decade horribilis. To cap it off, our beloved republic is splitting in two.

silhouette of Statue of Liberty under orange sunset

Twilight of liberty

On Independence Day 2023 America hauntingly resembles Yeats’ Second Coming, his apocalyptic poem about a nation coming apart and foretelling an impending crisis.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot  hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

In years past my regular July 4th posting, mimicking the theme of the movie Independence Day, was my readers’ all-time favorite. The theme was that migration from blue to red states was analogous to the aliens in the movie who, having laid waste to their home planet, plunder Earth and move on to despoil other worlds. Within the past few years, that migration pattern has changed 180 degrees. Now we are seeing moderates and conservatives fleeing blue states for red states. This presents an entirely different set of equally troubling problems for America.

Blue states are where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die

Blue states suffer from over a half century of toxic progressive governance marked by identity politics, Kafkaesque regulation, sky-high taxes and living costs, forced unionization, crumbling infrastructure and vastly underfunded pensions. They are rife with graft and corruption. Their failed union-run schools are petri dishes for every possible social dysfunction and pathology. Crime is rampant and gun control is uber-strict. There is massive public debt, unfunded liabilities and tanking credit ratings. During the pandemic they locked down businesses, mandated vaccinations, shuttered schools and closed churches, but kept liquor stores open.

Blue states tolerate homelessness, open drug use and human filth and install vending machines with free crack pipes. They release dangerous felons and decriminalize shoplifting, looting and arson while defunding police and eliminating cash bail. They pit people against one another based on race, income, age ethnicity and gender identity. Their stagnating economies are hemorrhaging businesses and tax base along with their most productive citizens. They teach CRT, the 1619 project and encourage young children to question their gender while disrespecting parents. Housing is scarce, dilapidated and costly with rent control and eviction bans. Environmentalism runs amok and climate change wackiness doubles the cost of energy.

Slouching toward red and blue Americas

The point of no return in the blue to red migration may have been crossed in Chicago’s recent mayoral election. I had thought it impossible Chicago could have a worse mayor than Lightfoot, but Brandon Johnson’s victory by 20,000 votes was due to the departure of 175,000 people in the past two years from Cook County. Without that migration, Chicago would have a more moderate mayor.

Red states are becoming redder, blue states bluer and purple states disappearing. Like any vicious circle, it feeds on itself. As conservatives and moderates clamor for the blue state exits (along with their tax base), the remaining population is even more progressive causing blue states to further increase taxes, cut public safety, neglect infrastructure and enact even more wacky laws; that in turn causes even more people to flee and the circle keeps going round and round. The opposite occurs in red states where revenue pours in enabling even more tax cuts and better public services.

The phenomenon described above is illustrated by recent actions by Minnesota and Florida. The Minnesota legislature just enacted ultra progressive laws regarding increased rights for abortion, transgenders, illegal immigrants, felons and others. Meanwhile, Florida just passed laws cutting taxes, creating universal school choice, stopping gender reassignment surgery for children, restricting abortions, expanding gun rights, cracking down on illegal immigration and more.

How does it end?

We are headed for an America divided into two opposing groups of states. Where all this ends is yet unknown – as in The Second Coming, which ends with the question: “And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?”

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Adam Smith Tricentennial

George Noga

Why there is no capitalist manifesto
GEORGE NOGA – JUN 25, 2023

This month is the 300th anniversary of Adam Smith, born June 1723 in Kirkaldy, Scotland. Adam Smith was not the father of capitalism, as he often is called, but the first to articulate its principles. He is known for his invisible hand metaphor explaining how self-interested individuals operate in a system of mutual interdependence and direct economic life more effectively and fairly than government intervention.

a statue of a man standing in front of a building

Adam Smith did not invent capitalism because it evolved organically. No intellectual ever wrote a capitalist manifesto. Capitalism doesn’t require pointy-headed professors to theorize; it just happens naturally. To the eternal pique of liberal elites, no one is capable of controlling capitalism, whereas socialism requires controllers, i.e. the same progressive savants who castigate capitalism. Capitalism is egalitarian and rewards those who best serve sovereign consumers; i.e. their fellow man.

Capitalism evolved in prehistoric times

Capitalism evolved organically. For example, Paleolithic fishermen worked incessantly, spearing just enough fish to survive. Then along came one nascent capitalist who thought of a net. Since neither he nor anyone else had any capital he could borrow, he worked longer hours for months to accumulate enough surplus fish (his capital) to give him time to make a net. With his net he generated a fish surplus to trade for other goods. He also financed others who, in turn, specialized in different skills, with the resultant benefits from the division of labor. Our first capitalist became wealthy, but his capital also made everyone else much better off.

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interests.”

In sharp contrast, socialism never has happened organically. All the failed attempts throughout history to achieve Utopia, Xanadu, Zion and Valhalla were spearheaded and financed by some ivory-tower dreamer. That explains, as well as anything, why capitalism always succeeds and why all forms of collectivism always fail.

More Wisdom from Adam Smith

Adam Smith wrote many other pithy statements about economics and capitalism, which continue to have relevance for those of us in the twenty-first century. His point in Wealth of Nations about comparative advantages of trade still resonates.

“By means of glasses and hotbeds, very good grapes can be grown in Scotland and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries.”

Smith’s statements about the role of government also are valid 300 years on.

“Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice: all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.”

“To hurt in any degree the interest of any one order of citizens, for no other purpose but to promote that of some other is evidently contrary to that justice and equality the (government) owes to all the different orders of citizens.”

“The statesman who attempts to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capital would not only load himself with unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could be entrusted to no council, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had the folly to fancy himself fit to exercise it.”

Perhaps my favorite Adam Smith quote applies (in spades) to today’s virtue-signaling progressives, private-jetting climate alarmists, greenwashing corporations, limousine liberals and their ilk. Adam Smith had their number 300 years ago when he wrote:

“The man who has performed no single action of importance, but whose whole conversation and deportment express the justest, the noblest and most generous sentiments, can be entitled to no very high reward. We ask him, what have you done.”

Adam Smith’s genius lie in being first to clearly explain an economic phenomenon that is as old as our Paleolithic fisherman who first generated an economic surplus. Remember, no one ever wrote a capitalist manifesto because it wasn’t necessary. Unlike all forms of collectivism, capitalism is organic and consistent with human nature. That explains why capitalism and free markets succeed and socialism fails.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

MLLG

Election 2024 Preview

George Noga

Enduring principles of American politics
GEORGE NOGA
JUN 18, 2023

This is the first of periodic posts about Election 2024. Between now and the election I will offer perspective about the candidates, issues, electoral process, keys to the election and, of course, my fearless forecast of winners and losers. Longtime readers know I have gotten it right most of the time, including Trump in 2016. This post is about why people run for president and some enduring political principles.

a picture of a donkey and a donkey with stars on it

Why run for president?

Have you wondered why so many people, with no realistic chance to win, enter the presidential sweepstakes. It may surprise you that there are many reasons.

  • Positioning for VP or top level appointment. An example is Kamala Harris; Tim Scott also fits in here, although he has an outside chance to grab the brass ring.
  • Positioning for the future. With a strong showing, a candidate might become a strong contender – or even the frontrunner – in the next election cycle.
  • Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Every few election cycles a dark horse unexpectedly catches fire; a good example is Herman Cain in 2012.
  • Establishing national bona fides. A little known local or state official may run to get into the national conversation; examples are Mayor Pete and Tulsi Gabbard.
  • Hoping for a cabinet position or ambassadorship. Most long shot candidates fall into this category; Mayor Pete is a good example.
  • Going for the money. The not-so-hidden aim is to get a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal, or a seven-figure gig on cable television.
  • Vanity and entitlement. Never underestimate the narcissism and solipsism of politicians. They convince themselves the people eagerly await their candidacy. Marianne Williamson fits this bill as does Gavin Newsom should he run.
  • Stalking horse. The classic example is Eugene McCarthy in 1968 who was a stalking horse for Robert Kennedy. Many believe Robert Kennedy, Jr. fits that category today and is a stalking horse for other candidates to enter the race.
  • Trial run. Candidates wish to test their abilities at fund raising, national politics, debates and organizing and running a presidential campaign.
  • Combination. This fits most candidates not likely to win nomination. They are hoping that, if they make a respectable showing, something good will happen.

Principles of American Politics

American political history and tradition are based on principles that have withstood the test of time. They exert an outsized effect on elections and transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. They are ignored only at great peril.

  • America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or a McGovern. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 80 years are Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. Carter and Clinton were southern state governors while Obama and Biden ran as unifying centrists.
  • Economics uber alles. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid” was right on track. Voters reward politicians who make them better off.
  • There are no permanent majorities. Demographics, alliances and issues always are in flux. Minority parties adapt; movements, like the Tea Party or Green Party, are subsumed into larger groups. Other than FDR/Truman and reconstruction, no party has retained power for more than 12 consecutive years in the past 230 years.
  • The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. As noted supra, with few exceptions, no party has retained power more than 3 consecutive terms. Only once in the past 154 years (Reagan/Bush) has a full two-term president been succeeded by a member of his party. Americans understand power corrupts.
  • Incumbency is powerful. In the past 130 years only 3 elected presidents have lost. Americans prefer the fool they know to the devil they don’t.
  • Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton outspent Trump 2 to 1.
  • Polling as we know it is dead. Most polls are skewed to promote one candidate or to suppress the vote of another. Even credible polling organizations can’t get it right due to absence of land lines and voters’ reluctance to respond to pollsters. Real people casting real votes in real elections always trump polls; that’s why the early primaries are so crucial in providing clarity not possible from polling.
  • It is far too early; most Americans don’t focus on elections until after Labor Day. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in September but Bush won by 7 points. Reagan trailed Carter well into October but won by 10 points and carried 44 states.

     

 

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

 

MLLG

Decade Horribilis: The 2030s

George Noga

The next decade will be the perfect storm for America
GEORGE NOGA
JUN 11, 2023

On January 1, 2022 I distributed a post entitled Annus Horribilis in which I wrote that the coming year would contain a phantasmagoria of horrors. My predictions included:

  • Russia invades Ukraine; China and Russia form an entente
  • Iran races toward nuclear weapons and North Korea resumes missile testing
  • The US has double-digit inflation, uncontrolled spending and huge deficits
  • Biden is non compos mentis; his administration, chosen solely on identity, would open the borders, cripple US energy production and promote lawlessness.
Russia and China form an entente

The only major prediction I muffed was that China did not invade Taiwan. Read this post for yourself on our website: www.mllg.us. My 1/1/22 post was the only time in 15 years of blogging I made any such predictions. That I was prescient is not attributable to any special insight or clairvoyance; the predicates were in plain view and many of the dots already were connected. And so it is again for the next decade.

The 2030s will be a perfect storm for America

I derive no pleasure whatsoever from these predictions and hope, against hope, that somehow I am wrong. But again, all the predicates are hiding in plain sight and all the dots are starting to connect – just as they did for 2022.

  • The debt (spending) crisis reaches critical mass and goes thermonuclear. Government no longer can borrow money because it is incandescently obvious to all there will be no repayment. Initially, the Fed will print money, but it will lead to runaway inflation and $100 trillion banknotes. The ensuing Great Debt Crisis will be on a par with the Great Depression and last for a (lost) generation.
  • Social Security and Medicare go bust. This is a no-brainer; even the trustees for these programs warn the funds will run out in the early 2030s. The government will use general revenues to prop up current benefit payments while making significant reductions – mostly applicable to future beneficiaries.
  • Geopolitical risks abound. China, which will have taken Taiwan long before 2030, will be the undisputed hegemon in the Asia-Pacific theater and will replace the US for global leadership. While the US is mired in the throes of its Great Debt Crisis, North Korea may invade South Korea and a nuclear-armed Iran will become the hegemon in the Middle East and threaten Israel. Nuclear proliferation will spread to Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and others.
  • Because of the Great Debt Crisis, the ability to defend the homeland and our allies is severely compromised. America’s greatest strength is a strong economy and ours will be in critical condition. We will be lucky to avoid a major war.
  • The US dollar no longer will be the world’s reserve currency. This greatly exacerbates the Great Debt Crisis and forces Americans to pay more (much more) for most of the products they buy – especially energy.

America in the 2030s

Imagine a world with the USA mired in the 20-year Great Debt Crisis with the loss of social cohesion, breakdown of law and order, bankrupt Social Security and Medicare, the Yuan as the world’s reserve currency and facing multiple geopolitical threats with a greatly depleted defense. What if China, Russia, North Korea and Iran formed a compact and threatened us simultaneously in several different places?

Americans chose to worship false gods

How did America get to such a desperate place? We refused, and continue to refuse, to control our spending; we kicked the can down the road until there is no road left. But, most damning of all, we ignored The Gods of the Copybook Headings¹, i.e. the collective wisdom humans acquired since they first came down from the trees.

We chose instead to listen to the false gods of wokeness, climate madness, identity politics and lawlessness. They (politicians) promised us it would be different this time; they promised us the moon was Stilton. They promised us the real problem was white supremacy. They promised us we could spend without restraint, worship on the altar of climate madness and wokeness and let criminals go free.

Throughout the ages, whenever men have worshipped false gods, inevitably the Gods of the Copybook Headings, with terror and slaughter, return!

1        Poem: The Gods of the Copybook Headings by Rudyard Kipling, October 1919.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com