Enduring principles of American politics
GEORGE NOGA
JUN 18, 2023
This is the first of periodic posts about Election 2024. Between now and the election I will offer perspective about the candidates, issues, electoral process, keys to the election and, of course, my fearless forecast of winners and losers. Longtime readers know I have gotten it right most of the time, including Trump in 2016. This post is about why people run for president and some enduring political principles.
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Why run for president?
Have you wondered why so many people, with no realistic chance to win, enter the presidential sweepstakes. It may surprise you that there are many reasons.
- Positioning for VP or top level appointment. An example is Kamala Harris; Tim Scott also fits in here, although he has an outside chance to grab the brass ring.
- Positioning for the future. With a strong showing, a candidate might become a strong contender – or even the frontrunner – in the next election cycle.
- Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Every few election cycles a dark horse unexpectedly catches fire; a good example is Herman Cain in 2012.
- Establishing national bona fides. A little known local or state official may run to get into the national conversation; examples are Mayor Pete and Tulsi Gabbard.
- Hoping for a cabinet position or ambassadorship. Most long shot candidates fall into this category; Mayor Pete is a good example.
- Going for the money. The not-so-hidden aim is to get a lucrative lobbying position, mega book deal, or a seven-figure gig on cable television.
- Vanity and entitlement. Never underestimate the narcissism and solipsism of politicians. They convince themselves the people eagerly await their candidacy. Marianne Williamson fits this bill as does Gavin Newsom should he run.
- Stalking horse. The classic example is Eugene McCarthy in 1968 who was a stalking horse for Robert Kennedy. Many believe Robert Kennedy, Jr. fits that category today and is a stalking horse for other candidates to enter the race.
- Trial run. Candidates wish to test their abilities at fund raising, national politics, debates and organizing and running a presidential campaign.
- Combination. This fits most candidates not likely to win nomination. They are hoping that, if they make a respectable showing, something good will happen.
Principles of American Politics
American political history and tradition are based on principles that have withstood the test of time. They exert an outsized effect on elections and transcend parties, candidates, issues and events. They are ignored only at great peril.
- America is a center-right country. Forget this principle and you get a Goldwater or a McGovern. The only center-left candidates elected in the past 80 years are Carter, Clinton, Obama and Biden. Carter and Clinton were southern state governors while Obama and Biden ran as unifying centrists.
- Economics uber alles. Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid” was right on track. Voters reward politicians who make them better off.
- There are no permanent majorities. Demographics, alliances and issues always are in flux. Minority parties adapt; movements, like the Tea Party or Green Party, are subsumed into larger groups. Other than FDR/Truman and reconstruction, no party has retained power for more than 12 consecutive years in the past 230 years.
- The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose. As noted supra, with few exceptions, no party has retained power more than 3 consecutive terms. Only once in the past 154 years (Reagan/Bush) has a full two-term president been succeeded by a member of his party. Americans understand power corrupts.
- Incumbency is powerful. In the past 130 years only 3 elected presidents have lost. Americans prefer the fool they know to the devil they don’t.
- Money is important but not dispositive. Clinton outspent Trump 2 to 1.
- Polling as we know it is dead. Most polls are skewed to promote one candidate or to suppress the vote of another. Even credible polling organizations can’t get it right due to absence of land lines and voters’ reluctance to respond to pollsters. Real people casting real votes in real elections always trump polls; that’s why the early primaries are so crucial in providing clarity not possible from polling.
- It is far too early; most Americans don’t focus on elections until after Labor Day. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in September but Bush won by 7 points. Reagan trailed Carter well into October but won by 10 points and carried 44 states.
© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com