The chance of a Trump – Clinton rematch may be greater than you think .
The Political Landscape for 2022 and 2024
By: George Noga – May 22, 2022
It’s time for a political update. I modestly remind readers that my prior political posts have proven to be accurate – not only in picking winners and losers but in analyzing the electoral forces that decide elections. For example, I wrote that Trump would lose in 2020 if suburban women deserted him and that is precisely what happened.
The Outlook for November 2022
Every pundit and pollster is predicting a Republican tsunami this November and it does not require a genius political IQ to understand why. Biden’s job approval rating is abysmal, Kamala Harris is an embarrassment and Nancy Pelosi remains radioactive. The Republicans have a wide margin in the generic ballot. Redistricting following the 2020 census will help the GOP – but only marginally. There are a slew of Democrats not seeking reelection and that benefits Republicans. Polls show Hispanic voters with only a 29% job approval of Biden – which should scare the bejesus out of Democrats.
And then there are the issues. It is a political axiom that people vote their pocketbooks; remember: “It’s the economy stupid”. No issue is greater than inflation because it is impossible to spin. Every time voters buy gas, food or just about anything, they are rudely reminded about inflation. This issue alone will sink Democrats, but they are underwater on virtually every other issue including: national security (Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iran), immigration, crime, Covid, supply chain, education and energy.
The GOP will win the House in 2022; the Senate is uncertain
Given the extreme unpopularity of top Dems and their positions on issues, it would be easy to go along with the herd and predict a Republican sweep this November. I am more cautious. In midterm elections, the party in power usually loses around 40 House seats; most observers are predicting a Dem loss of 60 or more seats. I believe the GOP gain will be more like 20-30 seats, in large part because they already gained about 20 seats in the 2020 election – directly reducing their potential gain for this year.
In the Senate, the mathematics are daunting for the GOP; they are defending 22 seats while the Dems are defending only 12. Much depends on the quality of the candidates the GOP is able to run. With strong, well-funded candidates, the GOP is likely to gain control of the Senate, but it is by no means a certainty. However, in 2024 the calculus is bleak for Dems who must defend 23 Senate seats versus only 10 for Republicans.
The Outlook for 2024
I have difficulty seeing Biden run; he may not complete his current term. I have greater difficulty seeing Harris as the nominee; she would lead her party to disaster. The US will be such an economic wreck in 2024 that neither Biden nor Harris is viable. I see Hillary Clinton making another run and it would be sheer folly to count her out. The Dems (with one exception) do not have candidates who are not extremists. Their best chance to win is with Amy Klobuchar, who also happens to be a woman.
On the Republican side, it is all about Donald Trump, who was a great president if you judge him solely on accomplishments. He would have won in a shoo-in if it were not for the pandemic. Even with the pandemic, he would have won handily but for his persona and so-called mean tweets. Nonetheless, he is the only Republican nominee who could lose – quite possibly to none other than Hillary Rodham Clinton. Age also could be a factor; Clinton would be 81 and Trump 83 when their terms ended. After the Biden fiasco, the country may not be in the mood for another geriatric presidency.
Any Republican but Trump will be heavily favored in 2024.
Unlike the Dems, the GOP has a strong bench: inter alia, Cotton, DeSantis, Pence and Cruz. Any one of these (plus some others) would be heavily favored to win – easily defeating Hillary – who still has ultra high negatives. The only election Hillary can win is against Trump and for the same reason he lost in 2020 – suburban women.
With the sole caveat noted supra, the Republican nominee will be an overwhelming favorite in 2024 – mainly because the US will be an economic basket case with either continuing high inflation or a deep recession – or quite possibly both. Democrat failures in handling defense, foreign affairs, immigration, crime, energy and education all will come home to roost. The presidency will be the Republicans to lose; however, they are fully capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Next on May 29th – A Catalog of Government Abominations
