It’s happening! There is an unmistakable shift underway in black voting patterns. MLLG was among the very first to recognize it in our February 12, 2017 post, on our website: www.mllg.us. Now, the rest of the political world is catching up. This movement has a name, blexit, a term coined by Kanye West and Candace Owens. Blexit is the black exodus from the Democratic Party, but it also includes Latinos and other minorities. Google “blexit” to find a cornucopia of additional information.
Let’s begin with numbers. To utterly transform American politics, Republicans don’t need to win the black vote; they only need to win an additional 10 percentage points more than in 2016, i.e. to increase their share from 10% to 20%. This would shift 2 million Democratic votes to Republican – a swing of 4 million votes.
MLLG analyzed such a hypothetical shift on a state-by-state basis. Using official 2016 vote data, we calculated the results of moving an additional 10 ppts of the black vote from Dem to Rep. The results were shocking. Arizona, Florida, Michigan North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all would become reliably red states. Moreover, Colorado, Minnesota and Nevada would go from being blue to purple.
The black vote during Obama’s two elections was 95% and 93% Democratic respectively. In 2016 it reverted back to pre-Obama levels of 88%-90%. However, recent polls show Trump getting 20% of the black vote. Democrats are faced with the Sisyphean task of needing 90% of the black vote; if they win only 80%, they are sunk.
There is absolutely no room for Dems on the upside; it is all downside risk for them.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to Democrats, who pander to blacks in election years. Afterward however, blacks still live in the same dysfunctional, crime-infested neighborhoods with the same failed government schools and the same desperate economic prospects. Progressive policies don’t alleviate problems of black Americans, they exacerbate them. Blacks understand this and resent that their votes are captured.
Democrats must quit seeing racists behind every tree. Racism has been thoroughly delegitimized; every white supremacist and klansman in America likely could fit inside a high school gym. Blacks in America today are victims of progressivism, not racism. The best antidotes to progressivism’s failures are education, personal initiative, free markets, hard work, thrift and family values. After 70 years of horribly failed liberal policies devastating inner cities, blacks are beginning to push back – hence, blexit.
“Blacks in America today are victims of progressivism, not racism.”
One issue driving blexit is school choice, which is the civil rights issue of our time. Black leaders (unionists, politicians, educrats) stand in the schoolhouse door keeping poor black children hostage in failed government schools. Black and Hispanic voucher moms are responsible for the 2018 gubernatorial victories of DeSantis and Ducey in Florida and Arizona respectively. If Republicans make school choice a national issue in 2020 as they should, it would scare the bejesus out of progressives.
Liberalism has failed miserably to improve the daily lives of blacks despite 70 years of progressive rule in inner cities and in deep blue states and after eight years of a black president. Meanwhile, in just a few years, Trump virtually eliminated black unemployment. Blacks, in ever increasing numbers, and led by a new cadre of smart, articulate, conservative leaders like West and Owens, understand they have nothing to lose by abandoning their unquestioned allegiance to failed progressive policies.
The blexit movement is catching fire and has an aura of historical inevitability. As Trump constantly reminds blacks, “What the hell do you have to lose?“
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