Tag: pandemic

MLLG

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

George Noga

New York spends $6,400 (125%) more per person than Florida – and for what?

A Tale of Two States: New York and Florida

By: George Noga – March 26, 2023

Refugees are fleeing en masse from NY to FL, and it is easy to see why. The mystery is why everyone doesn’t. Let’s begin with some numbers which reveal much (but definitely not all) of the calculus for bolting from NY. A resident of Miami pays no (as in zip, zero, nada) state or local income tax, while denizens of the big apple pay 14.8%. New Yorkers pay 8.875% in sales tax versus 6% in Miami. Florida’s constitution caps residential real estate taxes which generally hover around only 1% of value.

The NY budget calls for spending $227 billion ($11,500 per resident); the FL budget contains spending of $115 billion ($5,100 per capita). NY spends twice as much as FL even though FL has 2.5 million more people. Florida’s economy is growing at twice the rate of NY and its unemployment rate is half that of NY. Estate taxes in NY are 16%, while FL has no state inheritance or estate tax. And a moving van costs 500% more in NY. But there is much more to the story than is revealed by the numbers alone.

New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Paying double in taxes might be okay if NY was a Garden of Eden and its sky-high taxes resulted in la dolce vita for its inhabitants. However, New York has toxic governance based on identity politics, Kafkaesque regulation, stratospheric living costs, mandatory unionization and crumbling infrastructure. Its failed government schools are run by unions and are petri dishes for dysfunction and social pathologies. Crime is rampant while gun control is uber-strict. There is massive public debt, unfunded liabilities and tanking credit ratings. NY bollixed the pandemic response and, in obeisance to teachers’ unions, shuttered schools for years causing irreparable harm.

New York is a woke sanctuary state that tolerates homelessness, open drug use and human filth. NY decriminalizes arson, looting and shoplifting, while defunding police and eliminating cash bail. NY pits people against each other based on race, income, age, ethnicity and gender. NY’s stagnating economy hemorrhages its most productive citizens. NY schools teach the 1619 Project, CRT and encourage young children to question their gender without parental involvement. Housing is scarce, dilapidated and costly with rent control and eviction bans. Environmentalism run amok doubles the cost of energy. New York is where safety, civility, culture and liberty go to die.

Each and every one of the horrors of life in New York listed above is non-existent in the free state of Florida. Will the last person to leave NY kindly turn off the lights?

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

George Noga

The gates are down and the lights are flashing but there is no train coming.

Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

By: George Noga – July 10, 2022

I published a special posting on January 1, 2022, (read it at www.mllg.us) warning that this year would bring unprecedented geopolitical, economic, political and financial horrors. Never before in 15 years and 600 posts did I make any such forecasts. Rarely in human affairs have predictions come true so quickly, accurately and completely.

Geopolitical Horrors

I predicted that if Putin intended to invade Ukraine, it would be in 2022; Putin invaded in February. I wrote Putin and Xi would form an entente; they issued a statement stating, “their friendship has no limits“. I said Iran would race toward a nuclear weapon and threaten its neighbors; they have enriched uranium to weapons grade and threaten Saudi Arabia. I predicted North Korea would act up; they have resumed test firing ICBMs, threatening Japan and even the USA, and testing nuclear weapons. I wrote if Xi intended to invade Taiwan, it would be this year. I now assess this as less likely due to the unexpectedly robust global opposition to Putin’s Ukraine invasion.

Economic Horrors

I forecasted inflation would exceed 10%. The Producer Price Index is up 11% and other indices are up 8.6%. The real rate of inflation is 15% if computed on the same basis as the last time the US had high inflation. I predicted the Fed would surge interest rates leading to a recession. The Fed is now increasing rates three-quarters of a point at a time just as I predicted. They are doing too little too late. The economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter. Throughout US history when this has occurred, there is a 94% chance of a recession. The United States likely is already mired in a recession.

Per Barack Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

On the economic front, the worst is yet to come. I expect inflation to remain stubbornly high and intractable. The Fed will be forced to raise rates much more than they now contemplate. There will be a prolonged period of stagflation, i.e. inflation combined with stagnation. Ultimately, getting control over inflation will result in a severe recession. The recession, in turn, will lead to out-of-control spending and deficits in a futile attempt by Biden and the Democrats to salvage their tattered political prospects.

Political Horrors

In January I predicted a Biden horror show. The ineptitude of his Administration has exceeded my worst fears. They have hit rock bottom (and are still digging) on every issue: inflation, immigration, energy, supply chain, pandemic, crime and foreign affairs. Identity politics has resulted in widespread incompetence. The following were selected based solely on identity: Harris, Austin, Yellen, Buttigieg, Raimondo, Becerra, Granholm, Cardona, Mayorkas and a slew of lesser lights. Sadly, the gates are down; the lights are flashing; the whistle is blowing, but there is no train coming.

Financial and Investment Horrors

I wrote that in December 2021 I moved my investments into a highly defensive posture with over 70% in cash, cash equivalents and ultra-short duration bonds. I also doubled my holdings of gold, commodities and TIPs. Thus far, the NASDAQ is down over 30% and the S&P 500 over 20%. Commodities are up 30%, but gold is up only slightly due to the strength of the dollar and higher interest rates. The markets are not likely to hit bottom until 2023 or even 2024, but the worst is yet to come. In the immortal words of Barack Hussein Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

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Next on July 10th: Soaking the rich and fat cat corporations.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
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California Screaming – Prince of Fools

George Noga

The republic can survive a Biden, but not an electorate that made him president.

California Screaming – Prince of Fools

By: George Noga – June 5, 2022

California Screaming: The Cato Institute recently published the results of its multi-year project, Poverty and Inequality in California. You may be surprised that California, despite Silicon Valley and Hollywood, has the highest poverty rate in the USA. Moreover, poverty and inequality are getting worse by the day. The study found the cause is “California laws, regulations and policies are regressive, trapping people in poverty. . . . These policies involve criminal justice, education, housing and welfare.” California has had the most progressive government of any state for decades. Instead of utopia, liberal ideas have wrought the worst poverty and inequality in America.

Freedom Index: Cato also just released its Index of Personal and Economic Freedom for 2021. The five highest ranking (most freedom) states are, in order, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee and South Dakota. The lowest ranking (least freedom) are New York, Hawaii, California, New Jersey and Oregon. The states with the most freedom all are red or purple; the bottom dwellers all are deep blue. Americans are voting en masse with their feet for more liberty and less government.

Prince of Fools: Following (edited for length) is from a major European newspaper. “The danger to America is not Joe Biden, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him to the presidency. It will be far easier to undo the follies of a Biden presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to those who elected him. The problem is much deeper and more serious than Mr. Biden, who is but a symptom of what ails America. The republic can survive a prince of fools like Biden, but is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who elected him.”

If Biden is the prince of fools, Kamala Harris is the queen of fools. Although the Trump presidency, or at least its policies, turned out much better than expected, he never should have been nominated or elected. He won the nomination only because 15 professional politicians all misread the electorate. He was elected only because Hillary Clinton was radioactive. Biden won, despite obvious signs of cognitive decline, because suburban women were triggered by mean tweets. In 2024 it could very well be a Trump- Clinton rematch – see my post of 5/22/22 on our website: www.mllg.us. How much longer can our beloved republic survive an electorate like this?

Permanent State of Emergency: Governments at all levels have learned their powers are vastly increased during an emergency – even if they created the emergency. It is no wonder we are in a permanent state of emergency: pandemic emergency, voting rights emergency, climate emergency and now an energy emergency. Nothing encapsulates the fecklessness of the Biden Administration more than energy. Immediately upon taking office, Biden declared war on the US energy sector in every way possible.

Biden feigns shock energy production plummeted and prices skyrocketed. He declared an ersatz state of emergency to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, after first begging Venezuela (dirty oil) and Iran (fund terrorism) to produce more. Biden has reverted to the progressive playbook and is blaming greedy speculators and energy companies. Funny – these same groups were not greedy when prices were falling under Trump.

Achieving Perfect Equality: Since men first trod this earth, many have dreamt of a world with perfect equality; thanks to scientific advances, that now may be possible. The best minds on the planet could create a master algorithm incorporating all known markers of success. The algorithm would include DNA and would account for, inter alia, race, gender, sexual orientation, height, weight, IQ and life expectancy.

Key exogenous factors also would be included in the master algorithm: place of birth, social class, family income and education level, et seq. The result is a polygenic score assigned to everyone at birth. Those with positive scores would pay a polygenic tax while those with negative scores would receive a benefit – in direct proportion to how much the scores were positive or negative. If done correctly, this would make everyone equal. It is only a matter of time until progressives adopt this idea and run with it.

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Next: My lifetime of experience with government schools.

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Pandemic Unleashes Virulent Authoritarianism

George Noga

American democracy failed its Covid stress test: the good, the bad and the ugly.

Pandemic Unleashes Virulent Authoritarianism

By: George Noga – March 27, 2022

In the 1007 years since Magna Carta, people in the Anglosphere have fought many great battles to preserve their birthright of liberty. But in the brief span of two years, the Covid pandemic threatened our freedom in ways few could have imagined, from internment camps in Australia to a 100+ day blockade of Auckland in New Zealand to an ersatz state of emergency in Canada to draconian restrictions in the UK to suspension of constitutional rights, including assembly and worship, in the USA.

Very few people realize how rare, delicate and fragile liberty and freedom are. Since man first came down from the trees, there have been 115 billion humans; of that total, fewer than 1% have lived their lives in liberty. Even in the 21st century, only 10% enjoy freedom. In a crisis it is even more critical to protect liberty since that’s when it comes under the most stress. Regrettably, America mostly failed its Covid stress test. Following is the good, bad and ugly of the pandemic and the lessons we must learn.

The Good

  1. Operation Warp Speed was an astounding success. This is the only example in my lifetime where government responded to a crisis with such focus and speed.
  2. Federalism worked by allowing successes and failures. States that respect liberty performed much better than those under the yoke of progressive governance.
  3. Although late in coming, people throughout the Anglosphere began to resist.

The Bad

  1. Government response was too authoritarian. Liberals do not trust people, states or truth; they prefer one-size-fits-all federal solutions. People must be free to decide about masks, vaccines, worship, gatherings and their kids’ schools.
  2. The pandemic became virulently politicized to the point where Kamala Harris said she would not take a vaccine produced under Trump’s presidency.
  3. Several of our cherished constitutional rights were knowingly violated.
  4. We implemented the wrong strategy. We should have emphasized protection for the most vulnerable instead of locking down the entire country.
  5. Truth was a casualty; those in power flagrantly violated their own diktats.
  6. Mandates ran amok as power hungry politicians sought to create a nanny state.

The Ugly

  1. The ugliest by far was the contempt for children and parents demonstrated by teachers unions. They shamelessly held kids hostage to extort more money and benefits. At least, they revealed their true nature, thereby aiding the movement for universal school choice. There is a special place in Hades reserved for them.
  2. Another spot in Hades – south of the River Styx – is reserved for the governors of NY and MI, who caused thousands of unnecessary nursing home deaths.
  3. Censorship by big tech and the media strictly followed the government party line and stifled all other viewpoints – many of which proved to be correct.

The Lessons of the Pandemic

The pandemic exposed deep fissures in our American democracy and in democracies throughout the Anglosphere. We must learn from it so it can’t happen again. We must understand how fragile liberty is and how much power corrupts. Any emergency powers must be legal, the minimum required and have a short and fixed ending point. Rights enshrined in the Constitution must never be abridged, even momentarily. We must respect people, states and truth. There must be no censorship whatsoever and differing viewpoints must be allowed and open debate encouraged.

America and the other nations of the Anglosphere are proud heirs of Magna Carta. Our birthright of liberty goes back over 1,000 years and has survived countless existential threats – most far worse than Covid. Our heritage of liberty is worth protecting at all costs – even in the direst of emergencies – especially in the direst of emergencies!

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Coming Next: Special Annus Horribilis First Quarter 2022 Update

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The State of the World is Better Than You Think

George Noga

Human nature causes us to measure progress against utopia rather than against the past.

The State of the World is Better Than You Think

By: George Noga – January 17, 2021

This is our first post of 2021 and we are starting out on a positive note. Most people believe the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Recent polls show only 6% of Americans think the world is getting better. Many tacitly assume that for humanity to be better off, everything must be getting better for everyone everywhere. Reality never works that way; some unfavorable trends coexist with many more positive ones. Moreover, many people tend to measure progress against utopia rather than the past.

Humans are hard wired to be pessimistic as we evolved from risk-averse ancestors. When our Paleolithic forebears heard a noise in the bushes, it could be caused by either the wind or a predator. Those who assumed it was the wind did not live to be our ancestors. We therefore are descended from people who tended to worry a lot.

We worry about, inter alia, the Covid pandemic, climate change, politics, civil unrest, the environment, crime and terrorism. Following are some key megatrends showing that Homo sapiens, far from perdition, really is getting better and better all the time. Note: much of the data used herein are from a Cato Institute book: Ten Global Trends.

Eradication of extreme poverty: In the past 200 years the world economy grew 100 fold, while population grew only 18 fold. If the same growth rate is maintained, the economy will grow 10 fold by 2100, while population will be about the same as today.

Natural resources are plentiful and becoming more so: Over the last 40 years, out of 50 commodities studied, 45 of them are less expensive (adjusted for inflation) meaning they are more plentiful relative to demand for them. The average price for all 50 commodities fell 35%, while during that same period wages grew 80%. We have never run out, or are in any danger of running out, of any nonrenewable resource!

Population soon will peak and then decline: Several demographic studies agree that human population will peak soon after mid century and then begin to decline such that in 2100 population will be close to its present level and continue to decrease thereafter. This should go a very long way toward a solution for climate change.

Abundance of food with less land: The world food supply is now 3,000 calories per day per person, an increase of 36% in 60 years despite a burgeoning population. This level exceeds the USDA’s recommended daily caloric intake. Except in war zones, famines are ancient history. More and more land (1 million square miles) has been reclaimed for nature due to use of GMOs and more efficient farming practices.

End of wars between countries: In the past 50 years, wars between nations have been rare and those that did occur resulted in much fewer casualties; this is true even though we went from 50 countries in 1946 to about 200 today. This trend is attributable to increases in democracy, greater wealth and intertwined trading patterns.

All around better world: In recent years democracies increased from 31% to 49%, while autocracies fell from 39% to 11%. In the past 100 years the chances of someone dying from a natural disaster have declined by 99%. Virtually every metric extant evidences that we live in a far safer world and it is getting better all the time.

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As this year progresses, MLLG will address many of the problems America and the world face. It is wise however to begin 2021 with some perspective, so that our problems do not cause us to lose sight of the big picture, i.e. the enormous progress humanity has made and continues to make – contrary to the beliefs of 94% of Americans. Whenever you hear a rustling in the bushes, it is not always a lion.

Our January 24th post deals with the integrity of elections in the USA.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us