$15 Minimum Wage – Soaking the Rich

George Noga

Taxpayers are not like sheep, docilely waiting to be shorn.

$15 Minimum Wage – Soaking the Rich

By: George Noga – March 14, 2021

With Democrats back in power, we revisit two of their leitmotifs beginning with the minimum wage, which they champion despite opposition from economists of all political persuasions. Markets determine wages, not governments and $15 is vastly different in NY vs. WV. The biggest problems with the minimum wage are:

1. It disproportionately puts the poor, minorities, young and low skilled out of work. It is economic strychnine; whenever the minimum rises, businesses are incentivized to relocate and/or automate. When the price of anything goes up, we get less of it.

2. Fewer than 1% of workers are affected. Of those affected, most earn minimum wage for six months or less. It impacts virtually no heads of households or full time workers. The few workers helped are hugely outnumbered by those who lose their jobs.

3. Most minimum wage workers are not poor. The average household income for someone earning the minimum wage is nearly $60,000. Spouses and teens living at home benefit – like the kid who delivers your pizza to buy gas for his SUV.

4. The poor need jobs, not a higher minimum wage. Most people in poverty don’t work and raising the minimum wage makes it harder for them to get a job. Those receiving unemployment or welfare do not benefit. The real minimum wage always is zero.

5. The earned income tax credit (EITC) is cut. Any benefit from a higher minimum wage is substantially negated by a lower EITC and is a disincentive to working.

Labor unions support minimum wage mostly because it prices the poor and minorities out of the labor market, reducing competition for lower paying jobs. Support also comes from liberal virtue signalers inflating their self esteem. As with other feel-good bromides, it enables soft-headed liberals to flaunt their pristine intentions.

Why it is Impossible to Soak the Rich (except for one way)

Following are the main reasons it is impossible to soak the rich. As a former CPA tax professional, this is a subject about which I have considerable first hand knowledge. Please see our 3/3/19 post on our website (www.mllg.us) for more in-depth analysis.

1. Tax revenue is a constant 18% of GDP (20% in good times, 16% in bad times). This has been valid for the past 75 years and is explained by Hauser’s Law; see infra. Whether tax rates are 92% or 28%, the IRS collects the same 18% of GDP in taxes.

2. Elasticity of taxable income: Analyzing returns before and after tax increases reveals that high income taxpayers paid less at the higher rate than at the earlier lower rate. Moreover, the income of the truly rich is mostly capital gains – not ordinary income.

3. The rich are not the same people. High income taxpayers are mostly different people each year. If someone sells a family business, that taxpayer is “rich” for that one year only. It is impossible to soak the rich if they change from year to year.

4. There is no way to identify the rich. Government has data only for income, a poor surrogate for wealth. You can’t soak the rich if you don’t know who they are.

5. There aren’t enough rich. There are too few to make soaking them worthwhile. You can’t soak them by taxing businesses; they simply pass the cost on as price increases.

6. The rich will take countermeasures: Most of the wealthy got that way for good reasons; i.e. they are bright, resourceful, hard working and definitely not docile. They will adjust (and quickly) to any measures designed to soak them.

Hauser’s Law works because taxpayers are not sheep docilely waiting to be shorn. When rates are raised, they work, save and invest less; barter; retire early; hide, defer and underreport income; convert ordinary to capital gains and defer gains until there are offsetting losses. They employ tax shelters; shift income to lower bracket family members; seek tax free income; shift income to corporations; establish pension plans; exploit ambiguities and loopholes; lobby aggressively for tax breaks; move, even to outside the US; enter the occult economy; use top tax professionals and much more.

There is one (and perhaps only one) way to soak the rich, i.e. with lower tax rates. Hauser’s Law also works in reverse; when rates go down the rich are disincentivized to further lower their taxes. When rates drop, the rich pay a much higher share of taxes than before; it works every time. Progressives won’t do it because they don’t really want to soak the rich; they only want to appear to be soaking the rich.

Next on March 21st, we begin our series: Laboratories of Democracy.

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The Trump Presidency: A Retrospective

George Noga

Trump’s story is classic Greek tragedy; he attained high office and achieved great things.
But it ended in disaster via unexpected events and flaws always present in his character.

The Trump Presidency: A Retrospective

By: George Noga – March 7, 2021

Trump’s most significant accomplishment was empowering and giving voice to half of all Americans – about 165 million – who had been voiceless for decades. These were good men and women who progressives and the media never saw inside their bicoastal plastic bubbles. These were decent unbiased people, many of whom voted for Obama. These were patriotic Americans whose values were mocked and ridiculed. Trump understood these people and, perhaps alone among politicians, actually liked them.

Trump never could have been president without Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama enabled Trump’s election because of his blatant narcissism, solipsism, superiority complex, annoying smugness and contempt for those who “cling to their guns and religion”. Hillary Clinton enabled Trump by her off-putting abrasive manner and visceral contempt for the “irredeemable deplorables” in middle America.

Even before his election Trump was subjected to unprecedented vitriol. His consensual dalliances were the grist of daily news while Bill Clinton, whose misogynistic actions were far worse, got a pass. The Billy Bush tape was leaked, which never would have happened to a progressive. The Russia hoax and Mueller probe went on interminably as did the Ukraine impeachment, even though it was Hillary who colluded with Russia and Biden with Ukraine. There’s more – much more – but we move on.

Accomplishments of the Trump Presidency

Following are but some Trumpian accomplishments. He defeated ISIS and destroyed the caliphate, retaliated against Syrian aggression, killed General Soleimani and al Baghdadi, freed our hostages, halted North Korean nuclear and missile testing, deported 5,000 MS-13 gang members, forced allies to vastly increase NATO defense funding, moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and achieved peace in the Middle East for which he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize – maybe Obama should give him his.

He withdrew the US from the deeply flawed Iran deal and the Paris climate accord, reversed Obama’s ill advised Cuba policy, sold Ukraine lethal weapons (not blankets like Obama) changing the correlation of forces, worked with Mexico to reduce illegal immigration, increased US defense spending after Obama savaged it, challenged China by tariffs and restrictions on Huawei and slowed the Russian Nord Stream Pipeline.

Domestically, Trump presided over unparalleled economic success and stock market returns, historic tax reduction and simplification along with massive deregulation. He approved pipelines and drilling in ANWAR leading to American energy independence, reinstated net neutrality and transformed the Veterans Administration. Unemployment was the lowest in recorded history for blacks, Hispanics, Asians and women.

Trump created opportunity zones in predominantly African-American areas, improved NAFTA and always put America first. He achieved criminal justice reform, appointed 3 Supreme Court justices, 54 appellate court justices and scores of federal judges. He ended the Obamacare individual mandate and vastly expanded school choice.

Covid – The 2020 Election – The Aftermath

Trump was a shoo-in for reelection, likely in a landslide, until the pandemic hit. He then made several inspired decisions. He halted travel from China, later expanded to Europe, long before that was an obvious decision. He got the private sector involved early on. Operation Warp Speed, the most successful government program in ages, produced vaccines in record time. His decisions to end lockdowns, open the economy and reopen schools were correct. But, he was excoriated for his optics while Andrew Cuomo was lionized despite likely criminal culpability for nursing home deaths.

Trump’s opponents, using Covid as a smokescreen, then enabled massive election fraud in states where they controlled the legislature and/or judiciary. There undoubtedly were huge numbers of fraudulent votes cast; however, the fraud was in the votes and not in the manner they were counted. Hence, the fraud could not be detected by recounts.

Our protagonist (Trump) in this Greek tragedy accomplished great things including his handling of the pandemic. Instead of receiving kudos however, he lost an election tinctured with fraud. In the final act of Greek tragedies it is customary for the protagonist’s character defects, that were well known from the beginning, to manifest themselves bringing about a tragic ending. And so it was with Donald Trump.

Next up: The $15 minimum wage and how to soak the rich

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Real Doctors Versus Witch Doctors

George Noga

Progressivism drowns everyone in an endless sea of myths, banalities and outright lies.

Real Doctors Versus Witch Doctors

By: George Noga – February 28, 2021

The most disturbing trend in America today is the rapidly escalating number and gravity of disconnects between empirical reality and political correctness – between objective fact and logic on the one hand and vapid progressivism on the other.

I feel like a real doctor amidst a coven of witch doctors. I approach issues in a fact-based, logical manner; they screech truth-defying progressive mantras in unison like imps and banshees, believing the more often and louder they regurgitate their pallid screeds makes them truthful. I advocate principled solutions to public policy issues; they shriek socialistic incantations and prescribe antiscience remedies like applying leeches, bleeding and administering arsenic to bring the humours into balance.

As we begin the third decade of the twenty-first century, a cornucopia of marvels, thanks to free market capitalism, confronts us. Space flight is commonplace, medicine routinely performs miracles and technology brings us mind-boggling gadgets. Every measure of human well-being is the best it has been and is getting better all the time. Similarly, environmental metrics are the best in about 100 years and getting better.

Breathtaking social progress has been made in my lifetime. The status of women, minorities, LGTBQs and even animals has been elevated and virtually all vestiges of discrimination eliminated. The few racists that still exist are regarded by the rest of us as troglodytes; all of them could comfortably fit inside a high school gymnasium. Extreme poverty is nearly eliminated worldwide; in the US material poverty is reduced to 2%-3% of the population and exists mainly among those with cognitive disabilities, untreated mental illness and substance abuse. Food is so cheap the age old paradigm of the affluent being corpulent while the poor are gaunt has been reversed.

Progressivism is twenty-first century witchcraft

Amidst this horn of plenty there is one dismal creed that is seeking to reverse all the aforementioned miracles. That is progressivism and the misanthropic stepchildren it has spawned and midwifed. It goes by many names: ANTIFA, political correctness, BLM, environmentalism and democratic socialism. It brands its opponents heretics and seeks to control their speech just as Orwell’s Ministry of Truth. It drowns everyone in an endless sea of myths, irrelevances, banalities, inanities and outright lies. Progressivism is a dark force that panders to the lesser angels of our nature.

Progressives have long sought to implement their agenda through government. They already control public schools, universities, entertainment, labor unions and the media. They are taking over corporations, social media, technology companies, sports and even science. These dark forces are metastasizing worse than kudzu and with the same effect. They now may be able to achieve their goals without government.

Witchcraft is defined as “the exercise or invocation of alleged magical powers to control people or events.” BINGO! Progressivism is simply twenty-first century witchcraft – not unlike that of the Middle Ages. Witchcraft may work for a time but eventually people quit believing – when progressives’ “magic” time after time proves to be ineffective and destructive. Until such time arrives, MLLG will continue to present fact-based, principled analysis and prescriptions that work – like a real doctor.

Next on March 7th is our retrospective on the Trump presidency.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

MLLG State of the Union Address

George Noga

Biden’s SOTU address is this Tuesday. Following is MLLG’s SOTU speech.

MLLG State of the Union Address

By: George Noga – February 21, 2021

My fellow Americans:

I begin with first principles. Governments are instituted among men to protect their rights, which include life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. This is its only legitimate purpose. Experience shows legally sanctioned force, i.e. government is necessary to secure our rights and to protect us from foreign and domestic violence. Government is a dangerous, albeit necessary, force but is preferable to the alternative, i.e. anarchy.

All human history demonstrates that free people, free trade and free markets result in the greatest prosperity for everyone. Civil society and markets are 100% voluntary and non-coercive. No corporation, no matter how powerful, can compel you to buy its product. A consumer armed with a free choice is the most powerful force on earth.

In contrast, government is inherently coercive; it is not about reason, persuasion or logic. It is about brute force. If you run afoul of a government diktat, ultimately men with guns will come and take away your property, liberty or even your life. Because government is such a powerful and malevolent force, it must be limited, controlled, confined to its constitutional box and used only when absolutely necessary.

Ours is a government of laws and not men. Who holds executive, legislative, or judicial offices should be of little import to citizens, provided they remain inside the constitutional box. We must gradually shrink a severely bloated government back to its core responsibilities; this means we scale the government back to 15% of GDP, a level which empirically has been shown to maximize the well-being of all Americans.

The few legitimate functions of government should be vigorously carried out. Of these, none is more important than protection from foreign threats to our liberty; hence, we must make our military so strong no adversary would even contemplate challenging us. This means that we will spend whatever is required to defend our liberty.

We must begin to restore our constitutional republic back to first principles. Following are some of the other main goals and policies we will pursue in the time ahead.

– Free Trade: Prosperity is created by trade among people. The USA unilaterally will eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers – even if no other countries reciprocate.

– Sound Money: The Federal Reserve will have only one mission: sound money. It will be audited regularly and will take a hard look at returning to a gold standard.

– Taxation: As we scale government back to 15%, taxes can be reduced. All present taxes (income, payroll, etc.) will be repealed and replaced by a consumption tax.

– War on Drugs: The war is over; drugs won. Drugs will be legal, taxed, regulated and discouraged. Taxes from drugs will be spent on rehabilitation, not incarceration.

– Education: We will implement universal school choice and thereby solve the greatest civil rights issue of our time. Great God almighty – free at last!

– Regulation: All regulations automatically sunset after 10 years. Any regulations promulgated by bureaucrats and having an economic impact of more than $25 million must be approved by a vote of Congress before they become effective.

– Climate Change: Open scientific debate is encouraged. All climate spending will be subject to strict cost/benefit analysis. More funds will be allocated to mitigation.

– Entitlements: Social Security will be voluntarily privatized. All entitlements will be placed on the budget. Medicare will be converted to a premium support system.

– War on Poverty: This war also is over; this time we won. Americans living in poverty (by their own account) are down to 2-3% and consist nearly entirely of those with very low mental acuity, untreated mental illness and drug addiction. We will not abandon these people but will structure solutions better tailored to their problems.

There is more – much more. But the policy initiatives outlined above should provide a good idea of the direction we are leading America. Thank you very much. Good night and may God bless you, your family and these United States of America.

Next up on February 28th: Real doctors versus witch doctors.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The Global Population Collapse

George Noga

If climate change is manmade, then the population bust resolves it and at no cost.

The Global Population Collapse

By: George Noga – February 14, 2021

Very few, if anyone, reading this will be alive when the population collapse hits in full force early in the next century. Although that is a long way off, there are significant impacts in the shorter term. The biggest is that the population bust presents a solution to climate change; see our related 1/31/21 posting on our website at: www.mllg.us.

Population 100 years from now will be less than today and collapsing rapidly. Humans have not experienced a population bust since the Black Death 700 years ago. I spent hours researching what happened after the plague to see what lessons I could glean for today. Other than the fact that labor (due to scarcity) became far more valuable, and hastened the end of serfdom, I found nothing that resonates today.

Back to climate change. If indeed there are fewer of us in the future, that means CO2 emissions also are less, assuming they remain constant per capita. But what happens if everyone is much better off and has the same CO2 footprint as people in advanced countries today? If everyone is well off, they also will reduce their energy footprint just as wealthy nations are doing today. Moreover, global population will plunge far below that of today. The lesson is clear: we should not waste trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us in the face. If climate change is manmade, as its proponents assert, then a smaller population solves the problem.

Let’s look at some numbers. World population today is 7.8 billion. Per a University of Washington study published in the Lancet, population is projected to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. However, if current trends accelerate, as is happening, they forecast population as low as 6.3 billion by 2100. At low fertility rates, population halves every generation. Within a century or so, population could plunge from say 10 billion to 5 billion to 2.5 billion to 1.25 billion – a drop of 87.5%.

Even today, most wealthy countries have a fertility rate between 1.0 and 1.5 – far below the 2.1 required for a stable population. The USA is at 1.7 but population is stable due to immigration. By 2100 every country on Earth will be under 2.1. China’s population (fertility rate 1.0) is expected to drop 50%, by .75 billion people. In many countries population will fall over 50%, including Japan, South Korea, Italy, Portugal and Spain. It already has begun, as deaths today exceed births in Japan and South Korea.

Once fertility drops below 2.1, population recovery becomes impossible.

The population collapse is worse – far worse – than it appears. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly. Once population collapses, reversing it becomes nearly impossible; it is so difficult some demographers believe Earth’s population never again will increase. Increasing fertility with an elderly population is daunting for obvious reasons. No country in history has recovered its population once its fertility rate fell below 2.1.

Progressives still are flogging the politically correct narrative that overpopulation is the problem. They were wrong in Malthus’ time and they are wrong today. Prince Harry and Megan, who vowed not to have children, are comically wrong. Paul Erlich’s population bomb not only has failed to explode, it actually is imploding.

The implosion of the population bomb comes with serendipitous benefits such as described supra about climate change. Also, much of the planet’s surface will be rewilded and the environment will return to a pristine state. That’s the good news.

On the other side of the ledger are too few workers to provide health care for a huge cohort of elderly, only two workers to support each retiree and failure of many pension plans. When the elderly start cashing out their IRAs, who will be the ones buying? Who will buy all the cars, houses, refrigerators, or anything for that matter, in a depopulating world? From where will governments derive their funding?

At least population collapse will solve climate change. But don’t expect to see progressives jumping for joy. It is not about the climate; it never was.

Next up on February 21st: MLLG State of the Union Address

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Continuing Coverage of the Spending Crisis . . . Debt Ratio Above 100% – Attains Critical Mass

George Noga

The debt ratio will be 175% by the time of the US semiquincentennial in 2026

Continuing Coverage of the Spending Crisis . . .

Debt Ratio Above 100% – Attains Critical Mass

By: George Noga – February 7, 2021

The two issues we have written about for the longest time and also the most frequently are manmade climate change and the spending crisis. Ironically, the issue that is real (spending) and is certain to result in disaster is not taken seriously by progressives and the media. Concomitantly, these same groups regard the issue that is phony (climate) as an existential threat to humanity. They have it completely bass ackward.

We last wrote about the spending crisis on May 3, 10 and 17, 2020 and in a four-part series beginning April 8, 2019. These are available on our website (www.mllg.us). Our headline uses the term critical mass in its scientific sense. There is now enough fuel (debt) to trigger a chain reaction which becomes self-sustaining. That is illustrated by the numbers shown on the lines below. But instead of trying to slow the chain reaction, politicians (with full-throated media support) are adding more and more fuel.

The debt ratio is 101%; it will hit 175% by 2026 and 250% by 2031.

The crisis explodes long before we hit 500% in 2038 or 1,000% in 2044.

We updated the numbers based on all data extant. The public debt to GDP ratio is now 101%. The ratio will hit 175% in 2026 and 250% in 2031 on its way to 500%, 1,000% and oblivion. Before 2040, annual interest on the debt will exceed GDP; the timing depends on interest rates. Our forecasts, on which the above ratios are based, have proven far more accurate than those made by government or private economists.

The debt ratios speak for themselves and don’t require sophisticated economic analysis to understand. The Titanic has hit the iceberg and there is no way to unhit it. The key question now is how much time remains until Titanic sinks. No reasonable person can look at the data and conclude there are more than five or ten years left.

Progressives tout Modern Monetary Theory as a panacea. Our 5/3/20 post, devoted entirely to MMT, provides a primer. MMT explains certain economic phenomena better than mainstream economics. Proponents of MMT assert governments can borrow more, much more, in the short term than previously thought possible without raising interest rates; however, no economists assert the borrowing can be unlimited.

Following are some of our conclusions about which we are highly confident.

– Debt crisis is moral, not economic: As a nation we chose the easy path to avoid making difficult decisions and to seek social peace with massive borrowing.

– Crisis arrives within 10 years: It is impossible to discern any viable path forward with a ratio of 250% in 2031 and heading, via self-sustaining chain reaction, for 1,000%. However, the crisis could materialize sooner – much sooner – than ten years.

– MMT buys time: MMT permits more borrowing than previously thought possible but the amounts are limited. MMT can defer the day of reckoning, but can’t prevent it.

– Crisis hits suddenly: There will be no time to react. One morning everything will seem fairly normal but by the end of the day no one will buy US government debt.

– Government will print money: Initially, government will create monopoly money. Interest rates likely will soar and inflation will take off. Pension assets are at risk.

– No end until excess debt is purged: Once begun, the crisis will persist until all excess debt is purged. This will require one generation (lost generation) and America will be a far different and much poorer country when the crisis finally abates.

Americans know better; but we chose – and continue to choose – to believe progressive politicians and talking heads who promised us the moon was Stilton, wishes were horses and pigs had wings. They promised social peace by avoiding confrontations inherent in making difficult choices. How is that working out for America?

Next on February 14th – The implosion of the population bomb.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The Definitive History of Climate Change

George Noga

Humanity turned the tide in its battle with climate change late in the 21st century.

The Definitive History of Climate Change

By: George Noga – January 31, 2021

Incredibly, MLLG has obtained a United Nations report written 100 years in the future to commemorate the final victory of mankind over climate change and the culmination of its struggle that spanned 150 years and cost several quadrillion dollars.

Summary of 2121 United Nations Report

The warming of our planet was caused by the convergence of two forces. The stronger force (by far) was solar-caused warming, which was part of the normal pattern throughout history of alternating cycles of warming and cooling. It followed a cooling period that ended circa 1850. As with other such cooling periods, it was followed by an interval of warming beginning in the late nineteenth century. It began abating (as best we can tell) circa 2075. Since that time there has been no established climate trend.

The second, and far weaker, force was the increase in emissions of greenhouse gasses from industrialization. Mankind became sentient about this circa 1990 and began taking measures to limit temperature rise. The first measures, including international climate accords, were ineffectual, pork-laden and politicized. Most damningly, they squandered treasure on schemes that, if successful, would have made no discernable difference. Worse yet, these schemes diverted scarce resources from other critical human needs and away from productive efforts to mitigate the effects of warming.

Mankind came to it senses in the middle of the 21st century. As temperature continued to rise, more funds were directed to mitigation, which achieved far greater results. Moreover, warming proved beneficial in many ways, most notably in agriculture, reforestation and the virtual elimination of deaths from cold. Humanity turned the tide and began to win the battle in the latter part of the 21st century and sealed the victory in the first two decades of this century. We owe our victory chiefly to four forces.

– The warming cycle moderated after two centuries, as have all such prior cycles throughout history, including those long before man trod this earth.

– Population peaked soon after the middle of the 21st century and inexorably began to decline. Today, population is less than 100 years ago and continues to plunge. As a direct consequence, greenhouse gas emissions stabilized and now are declining.

– Economic growth was maximized. Humans began to behave rationally and people today are fifteen times richer than they were 100 years ago in 2021. A corollary of greater wealth is the willingness of people to spend more to protect the environment.

– Mitigation worked. Throughout history, humans and market economies proved incredibly resourceful and successfully mitigated every deleterious effect of climate change. This was greatly facilitated by the fifteen-fold increase in wealth.

However, many critical mistakes were made early in the 21st century and it is imperative we learn from them. One grievous error must never be repeated. The politicization of science (along with everything else) came within a hairsbreadth of causing a catastrophe. Vast amounts of government funding ($3,000 to every $1 funded by others) were directed only to scientists and academics toeing the party line.

Extreme political correctness on campuses prevented those with differing views from speaking; even debates were banned. The media parroted the government position and mercilessly excoriated anyone who differed. Politicians glommed on, using climate as a pretext to achieve more control and power; they rewarded their friends with trillions of dollars of pork, wasted on ineffective, feel-good measures like wind and solar.

Fortunately, we overcame our early blunders and now may properly celebrate our epic victory over climate change even though it was a close-fought thing. Hopefully, mankind has learned from this experience never again to politicize science and always to value free debate even when – particularly when – it is the most unpopular.

Our next post on February 7th is MLLG’s State of the Union Speech
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

George Noga

At least three or four US presidents owe their election to fraud.

Restoring Integrity to America’s Elections

By: George Noga – January 24, 2021

America experienced back-to-back election debacles in 2016 and 2020. In 2016 it was failure to accept the results due to alleged foreign interference. In 2020 it was fraudulent voting. Recounts accomplish little if they merely recount votes including illegal ones. Voter fraud has a lengthy provenance in the USA and there have been at least three presidents elected fraudulently – four, if you include Rutherford Hayes.

Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland in 1888 due to fraud in Harrison’s home state of Indiana. Following a massive pubic outcry, Indiana’s election laws were reformed and in 1892 Cleveland won by carrying Indiana. LBJ won his 1948 senate seat by 87 votes – the final 200 of which were all for Johnson, in the same ink, same handwriting and in alphabetic order; otherwise, LBJ would not have been president. Finally, the 1960 election was stolen for JFK due to rampant fraud in Illinois.

Stealing elections is as American as apple pie. In my high school, the administration changed the results of student elections if they didn’t like the outcome, even for homecoming queen. In college, student government vote fraud was rampant. In my fraternity, the election for sweetheart was rigged so the fraternity president’s girl friend won – even though she was disliked. My psychiatrist friends tell me 90% of their patients’ problems revolve around money, sex and/or power. Politics involves all three of these (in spades), so cheating in elections should be no shock to anyone.

During colonial times, people voted aloud to have their votes recorded. In the early days of the republic, there were no secret ballots and vote buying was commonplace. After secret ballots were introduced in the 1880s, voting declined by about 20% due to the absence of vote buying. By 1892, 38 states had adopted secret ballots.

If Americans no longer trust elections, we are no better than banana republics. Polls show large swaths of Americans believe there was rampant fraud in the 2020 election. If this continues, it will lead to violence and anarchy. If cheating is rewarded, it will increase. Unless we restore integrity to our elections, we will reap the whirlwind. The following reforms must be instituted to restore credibility to our elections.

  1. The entire process must be 100% transparent including to poll watchers.

  2. There must be an audit trail that matches every ballot to an eligible voter.
  3. Absentee ballots must be requested individually by registered voters.
  4. Voter rolls must be purged often of deaths, non-deliverable addresses, etc.
  5. Everyone must have government issued photo ID to vote – no exceptions.
  6. All votes must be received no later than when the polls close.
  7. Ban mail-in voting, the greatest source of potential cheating.
  8. Early in-person voting allowed no more than 7 days before an election.
  9. No vote harvesting – only one vote (or family) at a time to be turned in.

  10. Make it a felony to violate these laws and vigorously prosecute offenders.

A huge majority of Republicans, a majority of independents and a significant cohort of Democrats believe there was widespread fraud in 2020. It doesn’t matter whether they are right – the fact they credibly believe it is a serous problem. We must not only end voter fraud, we must prevent even the appearance of, or the potential for, fraud.

Without integrity and transparency, our elections will become like those of Russia, Venezuela or Belarus. Today, it is the Democrats who believe they win from failing to reign in fraud. But if our elections are to be decided opaquely with no ironclad curbs on cheating, it will become a race to the bottom and there will be no winners.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Incredibly, MLLG has come to possess a document from the year 2121 containing the

definitive history of climate change written 100 years from now. Our next post presents

that history and you will know the outcome of mankind’s struggle with climate change.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

The State of the World is Better Than You Think

George Noga

Human nature causes us to measure progress against utopia rather than against the past.

The State of the World is Better Than You Think

By: George Noga – January 17, 2021

This is our first post of 2021 and we are starting out on a positive note. Most people believe the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Recent polls show only 6% of Americans think the world is getting better. Many tacitly assume that for humanity to be better off, everything must be getting better for everyone everywhere. Reality never works that way; some unfavorable trends coexist with many more positive ones. Moreover, many people tend to measure progress against utopia rather than the past.

Humans are hard wired to be pessimistic as we evolved from risk-averse ancestors. When our Paleolithic forebears heard a noise in the bushes, it could be caused by either the wind or a predator. Those who assumed it was the wind did not live to be our ancestors. We therefore are descended from people who tended to worry a lot.

We worry about, inter alia, the Covid pandemic, climate change, politics, civil unrest, the environment, crime and terrorism. Following are some key megatrends showing that Homo sapiens, far from perdition, really is getting better and better all the time. Note: much of the data used herein are from a Cato Institute book: Ten Global Trends.

Eradication of extreme poverty: In the past 200 years the world economy grew 100 fold, while population grew only 18 fold. If the same growth rate is maintained, the economy will grow 10 fold by 2100, while population will be about the same as today.

Natural resources are plentiful and becoming more so: Over the last 40 years, out of 50 commodities studied, 45 of them are less expensive (adjusted for inflation) meaning they are more plentiful relative to demand for them. The average price for all 50 commodities fell 35%, while during that same period wages grew 80%. We have never run out, or are in any danger of running out, of any nonrenewable resource!

Population soon will peak and then decline: Several demographic studies agree that human population will peak soon after mid century and then begin to decline such that in 2100 population will be close to its present level and continue to decrease thereafter. This should go a very long way toward a solution for climate change.

Abundance of food with less land: The world food supply is now 3,000 calories per day per person, an increase of 36% in 60 years despite a burgeoning population. This level exceeds the USDA’s recommended daily caloric intake. Except in war zones, famines are ancient history. More and more land (1 million square miles) has been reclaimed for nature due to use of GMOs and more efficient farming practices.

End of wars between countries: In the past 50 years, wars between nations have been rare and those that did occur resulted in much fewer casualties; this is true even though we went from 50 countries in 1946 to about 200 today. This trend is attributable to increases in democracy, greater wealth and intertwined trading patterns.

All around better world: In recent years democracies increased from 31% to 49%, while autocracies fell from 39% to 11%. In the past 100 years the chances of someone dying from a natural disaster have declined by 99%. Virtually every metric extant evidences that we live in a far safer world and it is getting better all the time.

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As this year progresses, MLLG will address many of the problems America and the world face. It is wise however to begin 2021 with some perspective, so that our problems do not cause us to lose sight of the big picture, i.e. the enormous progress humanity has made and continues to make – contrary to the beliefs of 94% of Americans. Whenever you hear a rustling in the bushes, it is not always a lion.

Our January 24th post deals with the integrity of elections in the USA.

More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Roosevelt and Churchill: Christmas Eve 1941

George Noga

Christmas Eve 1941 radio address to the world by FDR and Churchill

Roosevelt and Churchill: Christmas Eve 1941

By: George Noga – December 13, 2020

In addition to our regular fare of politics, economics, current issues and human interest, we publish mostly forgotten speeches that are particularly poignant and/or timely. In our Washington’s birthday post of 2/23/20 (on our website), we published his 1783 speech to Congress returning his commission – arguably the most consequential speech ever delivered. Today we provide the (lightly edited for length) remarks of Roosevelt and the unedited remarks of Churchill delivered at the December 24, 1941 lighting of the national Christmas tree, which coincided with Churchill’s visit to America.

President Franklin Roosevelt’s Speech

“There are many sincere and faithful men and women in America who ask themselves this Christmas: How can we light our trees? How can we give gifts? How can we meet and worship with love and uplifted hearts in a world at war, a world of fighting, suffering and death? How can we pause, even for a day, even for Christmas Day, in our urgent labor of arming a decent humanity against the enemies which beset it?

How can we put the world aside, as men and women put the world aside in peaceful years, to rejoice in the birth of Christ? These are natural – inevitable – questions in every part of the world which is resisting the evil thing. Even as we ask these questions, we know the answer. There is another preparation demanded of this nation beyond the preparation of weapons of war. There is demanded also the preparation of our hearts; the arming of our hearts. And when we make ready our hearts for the labor and suffering which lie ahead, then we observe Christmas Day as we should.

The year 1941 has brought upon our nation a war of aggression by powers dominated by arrogant rulers whose selfish purpose is to destroy free institutions. They would thereby take from the freedom-loving people of the earth the hard-won liberties gained over many centuries. The new year of 1942 calls for the courage and resolution of old and young to help to win a world struggle to preserve all we hold dear.

Therefore, I hereby appoint the first day of the year 1942 as a day of prayer, of asking forgiveness for our shortcomings, of consecration to the tasks of the present and of asking God’s help in days to come. We need his guidance that his people may be humble in spirit but strong in the conviction of the right, steadfast to endure the sacrifices and brave to achieve a victory of liberty and peace. Our strongest weapon in this war is the conviction of dignity and brotherhood of man which Christmas signifies.

It is in that spirit, and with particular thoughtfulness of those, our sons and daughters, who serve in our armed forces on land and sea, near and far – those who serve for us and endure for us – that we light our Christmas candles now across this continent from one coast to the other on this Christmas Eve. We have joined with many other nations and peoples in a great cause. Millions of them have engaged in the task of defending good with their life-blood for months and years.

One of their great leaders stands beside me. He and his people in many parts of the world are having their Christmas trees with their little children around them, just as we do here. He and his people have pointed the way in courage and sacrifice for the sake of little children everywhere. And so I am asking my associate and old friend to say a word to the people of America – Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of Great Britain.”

Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s Speech

“I spend this anniversary and festival far from my country, far from my family; yet I cannot truthfully say that I feel far from home. Whether it be the ties of blood on my mother’s side, or the friendships developed here over many years, or the commanding sentiment of comradeship in the common cause of great peoples who speak the same language, who kneel at the same altars and, to a very large extent, pursue the same ideals, I cannot feel myself a stranger here. I feel a sense of unity and fraternal association which, when added to the kindliness of your welcome, convinces me that I have a right to sit at your fireside and share your Christmas joys.

This is a strange Christmas Eve. Almost the whole world is locked in deadly struggle, and with the most terrible weapons science can devise, the nations advance on each other. Ill would it be for us this Christmastide if we were not sure that no greed for the land or wealth of any people, no vulgar ambition, no morbid lust for material gain at the expense of others, had led us to the field.

Here, in the midst of war, raging over all the lands and seas, creeping nearer to our hearts and homes, here amid all the tumult, we have tonight the peace of the spirit in each home and in every generous heart. Therefore, we may cast aside, for this night at least, the cares and dangers which beset us, and make for the children a night of happiness in a world of storm. Here, then, for one night only, each home throughout the English-speaking world should be a brightly-lighted island of happiness and peace.

Let the children have their night of fun and laughter. Let the gifts of father Christmas delight their play. Let us grown-ups share to the full in their unstinted pleasures before we turn again to the stern tasks and the formidable years that lie before us, resolved, that by our sacrifice and daring, these same children shall not be robbed of their inheritance or denied their right to live in a free and decent world. And so, in God’s mercy, a happy Christmas to you all.”

MLLG IS TAKING A SHORT HOLIDAY BREAK AND WILL RESUME IN MID JANUARY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME UNPLANNED POSTS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. BEST WISHES FROM MLLG TO ALL OUR LOYAL READERS FOR A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us