May Day 2022 – Commie Compilation

Humans have dreamt of a temporal paradise since the Garden of Eden.

May Day 2022 – Commie Compilation

By: George Noga – May 1, 2022

May Day commemorates the Haymarket riots, which to socialists symbolize the struggle for workers’ rights. It is the most important holiday in socialist countries such as Russia, China, Vietnam, Cuba, Laos, North Korea, Venezuela and former Soviet republics. In observance, we present a compilation of the failures of collectivism from many different angles. We do this because polls show many younger Americans prefer socialism over capitalism. Also, progressivism is a gateway drug for socialism.

Socialism fails in theory and practice: Throughout history socialism has failed everywhere it has been attempted; it never has succeeded for a group larger than a small clan, family or tribe. There is not one example where socialism has improved the human condition over a sustained period of time. Collectivism fails because it is fundamentally contrary to human nature and ignores and misaligns incentives.

Collectivism is a lie: Commies promise you liberty; you get the Berlin Wall and closed borders with watchtowers, razor wire and minefields. They promise prosperity; you get lines, rationing, shortages and shoddy goods. They promise hope; they give you nihilism. They promise truth; you get Pravda, censorship, propaganda, and banned internet. They promise life; they give you death – murdering over 100 million of their own people. They promise a workers paradise; you get a phantasmagoria of lies, terror, slaughter, misery, poverty, injustice, kleptocracy and social pathology.

Socialism is just like Scandinavia: Progressives assert socialism is just like Sweden and other Scandinavian countries. Sweden experimented with socialism in the 1970s and it was a colossal failure. They abandoned socialism and embraced free market capitalism. Today every Nordic nation is capitalist. They provide robust social benefits only because their capitalist economies generate great wealth. Sweden is not prosperous due to socialism; it is wealthy because it abandoned socialism. Moreover, if Sweden were a US state, it would be the poorest one – and by a wide margin.

Initial successes are illusory: Socialism can appear to work briefly as socialists plunder a nation’s wealth. They confiscate assets, loot industries, strip natural resources, run huge budget deficits, and borrow to the hilt. They tax the wealthy to oblivion, print worthless currency, hyperinflate, pillage banks and beg for foreign aid. They impose price, rent and currency exchange controls. For a time, these measures give the illusion of progress, but all socialists have done is steal a nation’s patrimony. After socialists are done pillaging, it always ends the same, i.e. starvation amidst plenty.

Jamestown and Plymouth: Both colonies initially were governed under socialist principles. All property was communal and there was no direct link between work and benefit. Both experienced mass starvation and death – even cannibalism. They starved to death en mass rather than work collectively. They literally chose death over socialism. Once private property rights were restored, the colonies prospered. The very same settlers who had starved under socialism, now thrived under capitalism.

Trabant versus Mercedes: The best car ever produced under socialism is the Trabant. It had a two-cylinder engine and 26 horsepower – similar to a riding lawnmower. The gas gauge was a dipstick and oil had to be mixed in with the gas in precisely the correct proportion. There was no fuel pump and the gas tank was placed above the engine for gravity flow. Payment in full was required up front and the car would be delivered in 12 years. The Trabant was made in East Germany; a few miles away in West Germany, consumers had their choice of VW, Audi, BMW, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz.

Head-to-Head Comparisons: Many years ago there were five islands, all of them poor and bereft of natural resources. Two of them chose command economies and collectivism; the three others chose free market capitalism. A half century later, the socialist islands are impoverished hell holes and the ones that chose capitalism are rich. It’s as simple as Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan versus Cuba and Puerto Rico.

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Progressives continue to harbor quixotic dreams of utopia; perhaps they will get it right the next time. But for the entirety of human history, it is the god that failed.

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Next is a special posting about the beginning of the spending crisis.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
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Annus Horribilis Revisited

To tame inflation, the interest rate must be higher than the inflation rate.

Annus Horribilis Revisited

By: George Noga – April 3, 2022

My January 1, 2022 post warned this would be a year of great geopolitical, economic, political and financial danger. If you missed that post, go to my website: www.mllg.us. Rarely have predictions come true so quickly and completely. That post resonated with readers as I was bombarded with questions. This post is updated to include events subsequent to 1/1/22 and contains my analysis for the remainder of this year.

Geopolitical Horrors

I wrote that: (1) this would be the year Putin invaded Ukraine and Xi invaded Taiwan; (2) Russia and China would form an entente; and (3) other bad actors such as Iran and North Korea, using the same calculus as Putin and Xi, would foment great mischief.
These predictions have come true except for Xi invading Taiwan. It now is less likely China will invade Taiwan because of the surprisingly robust world reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Iran is racing toward a nuclear weapon, flaunting the feckless Biden Administration; they will use their oil money windfall to fund terrorism. The NoKos have resumed testing intercontinental missiles capable of reaching the US.

Economic Horrors

I wrote on January 1st that: (1) inflation would reach double digits; (2) the Federal Reserve will be forced to surge interest rates; (3) these actions will lead to a deep and prolonged recession; and (4) the debt and deficit will go thermonuclear.
This could very well be the beginning of the spending crisis; my
special posting scheduled for May 8th is devoted to that topic.
How have these predictions fared? Inflation already is at double digits. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is up over 9% and the CPI will exceed 10% once higher gas prices are factored into the index – likely this month. Moreover, the CPI would be up 15% if it was calculated the same as the last time we had double-digit inflation. Eventually the Fed will be forced to catapult interest rates. To tame inflation, the interest rate must be higher than the inflation rate; this means interest rates above 10%, but not this year. Moreover, this may be the start of the spending crisis, the topic of my May 8th post.

Political Horrors

The Biden political horror show continues lurching toward rock bottom. The only winners are Jimmy Carter and Spiro Agnew, who are replaced by Biden and Harris as poster children for ineptitude. Kamala Harris personifies what happens when top positions are filled based on identity. The national security team of Biden, Harris, Austin, Blinken and Sullivan is the weakest ever. Biden is under water on every issue: immigration, crime, inflation, Covid, Afghanistan, Iran, supply chain and energy.
Nothing exemplifies the lunacy of the Biden Administration moreso than energy. They have declared war on American (including Canadian) fossil fuels, which are clean and safe. Instead, they beg our enemies Iran, Venezuela and Russia to produce more. The world will use the same amount of fossil fuels regardless of its provenance. Instead of US energy independence – and even exports – we are enriching our enemies, hurting our allies and harming the environment by shifting energy production to high pollution places – and all in the name of the environmental religion and climate madness.

Financial and Investment Horrors

My January 1st post warned of serious investment risks; in December, I repositioned my portfolio to 70+% safe, short-duration assets and doubled my allocation to commodities and gold. So, how is that working out? Stocks are down nearly 10%; gold is up about 10% and commodities are surging – all in just 3 months. But the worst is yet to come; that will occur when interest rates go north of 10% to try to get ahead of inflation. I am keeping my powder dry awaiting a low risk reentry point.
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Next: We observe May Day with a special May 1st posting.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
MLLG

Pandemic Unleashes Virulent Authoritarianism

American democracy failed its Covid stress test: the good, the bad and the ugly.

Pandemic Unleashes Virulent Authoritarianism

By: George Noga – March 27, 2022

In the 1007 years since Magna Carta, people in the Anglosphere have fought many great battles to preserve their birthright of liberty. But in the brief span of two years, the Covid pandemic threatened our freedom in ways few could have imagined, from internment camps in Australia to a 100+ day blockade of Auckland in New Zealand to an ersatz state of emergency in Canada to draconian restrictions in the UK to suspension of constitutional rights, including assembly and worship, in the USA.

Very few people realize how rare, delicate and fragile liberty and freedom are. Since man first came down from the trees, there have been 115 billion humans; of that total, fewer than 1% have lived their lives in liberty. Even in the 21st century, only 10% enjoy freedom. In a crisis it is even more critical to protect liberty since that’s when it comes under the most stress. Regrettably, America mostly failed its Covid stress test. Following is the good, bad and ugly of the pandemic and the lessons we must learn.

The Good

  1. Operation Warp Speed was an astounding success. This is the only example in my lifetime where government responded to a crisis with such focus and speed.
  2. Federalism worked by allowing successes and failures. States that respect liberty performed much better than those under the yoke of progressive governance.
  3. Although late in coming, people throughout the Anglosphere began to resist.

The Bad

  1. Government response was too authoritarian. Liberals do not trust people, states or truth; they prefer one-size-fits-all federal solutions. People must be free to decide about masks, vaccines, worship, gatherings and their kids’ schools.
  2. The pandemic became virulently politicized to the point where Kamala Harris said she would not take a vaccine produced under Trump’s presidency.
  3. Several of our cherished constitutional rights were knowingly violated.
  4. We implemented the wrong strategy. We should have emphasized protection for the most vulnerable instead of locking down the entire country.
  5. Truth was a casualty; those in power flagrantly violated their own diktats.
  6. Mandates ran amok as power hungry politicians sought to create a nanny state.

The Ugly

  1. The ugliest by far was the contempt for children and parents demonstrated by teachers unions. They shamelessly held kids hostage to extort more money and benefits. At least, they revealed their true nature, thereby aiding the movement for universal school choice. There is a special place in Hades reserved for them.
  2. Another spot in Hades – south of the River Styx – is reserved for the governors of NY and MI, who caused thousands of unnecessary nursing home deaths.
  3. Censorship by big tech and the media strictly followed the government party line and stifled all other viewpoints – many of which proved to be correct.

The Lessons of the Pandemic

The pandemic exposed deep fissures in our American democracy and in democracies throughout the Anglosphere. We must learn from it so it can’t happen again. We must understand how fragile liberty is and how much power corrupts. Any emergency powers must be legal, the minimum required and have a short and fixed ending point. Rights enshrined in the Constitution must never be abridged, even momentarily. We must respect people, states and truth. There must be no censorship whatsoever and differing viewpoints must be allowed and open debate encouraged.

America and the other nations of the Anglosphere are proud heirs of Magna Carta. Our birthright of liberty goes back over 1,000 years and has survived countless existential threats – most far worse than Covid. Our heritage of liberty is worth protecting at all costs – even in the direst of emergencies – especially in the direst of emergencies!

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Coming Next: Special Annus Horribilis First Quarter 2022 Update

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Questions From Readers

My facts have been challenged only twice in over 600 posts.

Questions From Readers

By: George Noga – March 20, 2022

I receive many questions and comments from readers for which I am grateful – even for the ones that are critical. I try to respond to all reader questions and you may email me at mllg@cfl.rr.com. Certain questions are asked frequently and may be of interest to all readers. In this post I respond to three of the questions I am asked most often.

Question: How do you stay informed? In addition to a lifetime of heavy duty reading, I read the Wall Street Journal thoroughly each day. I read the front page of each section, particularly the front section. I scan the What’s News column (front page far left) to see what other articles to read. I spend most of my time on the 3 Opinion pages. I watch the Journal Editorial Report on Fox News Saturdays at 3:00 PM. Contrary to what you may have heard, the WSJ’s news coverage leans to the left; however, the opinion pages are conservative and provide an excellent forum for reliable fact and opinion.

I also read Reason and Forbes magazines, Cato Institute publications and Imprimis, published by Hillsdale College. I subscribe to Praeger University videos and to daily emails from the Mises Institute and LewRockwell.com. I peruse these sources and read whatever is of interest. I read several books each year – exclusively non fiction; many of the books are selected based on reviews published on the WSJ opinion pages.

Question: How do you perform research? At any given time I have a list of around 30 topics I want to blog about and I have a file for each topic. As I go about my daily reading and see an idea or fact that fits one of these topics, I make a copy and put it in the file. My prior 600 postings also provide a wealth of data. When I begin drafting a post, I already have much of the data needed. I then independently check each fact, usually on the internet. There have been occasions when I have backed away from publishing a post when the facts were not 100% supportive. In all my years of blogging and with many thousands of readers, I have had facts challenged only twice.

Question: What are your political bona fides? I was hyperactive in politics in college; I held several of the highest offices in student government and would have had a very good shot at being elected Student Body President if I had remained in college for another year. While in grad school, I worked in a gubernatorial campaign that defied all odds to unseat an incumbent governor. During that campaign I worked closely with top national political operatives. I was in line to receive a subcabinet appointment in the Nixon Administration but Watergate caused the Senate to suspend confirmations.

I was offered gubernatorial appointments but declined most of them; I did serve on the Industrial Development Authority but declined reappointment to a second term. I wrote an op-ed column for a local newspaper and headed up a major arts organization. I served on the advisory board of the James Madison Institute (JMI), the leading state think tank. I was honored by JMI as a “JMI Angel” for my work on school choice in Florida. I cofounded and cochaired the Center-Right Coalition of Central Florida.

I started the school choice movement in Florida in 1994. The organization I started and ran for 10 years, (now called Step Up For Students) today provides scholarships to over 100,000 children from low income families at a cost of $700 million a year. I also served on the national board that began voucher programs in over 100 US cities. My post of 7/25/21 about the history of school choice in Florida is on our website.

If you are interested in learning more about More Liberty – Less Government, our mission statement or me, please visit our website at: www.mll.us. Click on the ribbon at the top of the page where it says “About MLLG & Author”. There also are hundreds of past postings – most of them indexed. I just updated the information on the website and even if you previously have been on the website, you may want to browse it again.

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Next on March 27th: the good, the bad and the ugly of the pandemic.

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Government Failure and Business Success

This post explains why government always fails while business succeeds.

Government Failure and Business Success

By: George Noga – March 13, 2022

Have you ever wondered why government always fails, regardless of time and place, while business usually succeeds? There are many amazing business successes: Apple, Amazon, Disney, Walmart, Coca-Cola, Google and Facebook to name but a few. When we think of government, what comes to mind is public schools, the IRS, the USPS, immigration, the war on drugs, crime, pandemic mismanagement, huge deficits, TSA, Medicaid, mindless regulation, crumbling infrastructure, corruption, waste, fraud, abuse, climate madness and dysfunctional cities littered with human jetsam.

Why Business Succeeds

 

Business closely aligns its risks and rewards and its incentives and disincentives with human nature – which is unchanging. Business so closely aligns personal incentives with the goals of the business such that they are nearly indistinguishable. The need to make a profit creates a sense of urgency, focuses attention and summons great exertion because success confers wealth and status while failure has immediate and very unpleasant consequences. As a result, business attracts motivated, hard-working, talented, non risk–averse people with a strong bias for action over inertia.

Business is based on markets; highly specific knowledge constantly flows from the bottom up and confers valuable information about consumer preferences and prices. All transactions are voluntary, non-coercive and mutually beneficial, otherwise they would not take place; that explains why both parties to a market-based transaction always say “thank you“. In business, one person can improve the lives of a billion people as did Gates, Walton, Jobs, Disney, Zuckerberg and Bezos. Businesses routinely manage vast global enterprises with little waste, fraud, abuse or corruption.

 

Why Government Fails

 

Government is unalterably contrary to human nature. Not only are its incentives and disincentives not aligned, they are diametrically misaligned to encourage behavior contrary to the public interest. This problem is dissected and explained by the science of public sector economics, which explains, inter alia, why taxes are opaque, failed programs never end and why borrowing and spending is out of control. It also explains why all forms of collectivism never work outside of a small family, clan or tribe.

The risks and rewards of government do not attract talented, hard-working people; in fact, they appeal to the opposite cohort. Government is not based on markets and gets only the most generalized feedback every few years in elections. Government is top-down, highly coercive, ignores consumer preferences and artificially creates winners and losers; it is rife with waste, fraud, abuse and corruption. One person cannot make a difference; try to name one bureaucrat who transformed government for the better.

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The causes of government failure are systemic and structural; they are deeply rooted, organic and incapable of reform. There is no way to fix government; it is futile to try. Voting different political parties into power, increasing oversight by Congress, forming elite study commissions or hiring gaggles of inspectors general will have no impact. Even bringing in top business executives fails; Robert McNamara comes to mind.

Government cannot be improved; but there is one way – and only one way – its many pathologies can be reduced. That answer is to drastically shrink the overall size and scope of government – nothing else will work. Even then, government still will be a failure – but at least it will be a smaller failure. We do not need more government, better government or even wiser government; we need less government!

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In our next post on March 20th, we answer questions from readers.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
MLLG

The Real Attack On Our Democracy

Democracy is not intended instantly to actualize the will of a bare majority.

The Real Attack On Our Democracy

By: George Noga – March 6, 2022

Attack on our democracy” has become the go-to phrase regurgitated by progressives. Whenever they don’t get their way they, along with their media handlers, screech this pallid mantra in unison. Rush Limbaugh was fond of saying that whatever progressives accuse others of doing, they are doing themselves. This critique was never more on target than when liberals direct this rant at others. The real attack on our American democracy emanates from the progressive left and the modern Democratic Party.

Our democracy is best defined in our founding documents. During the Constitutional Convention, the framers were mindful of all previous attempts at self government throughout recorded history – and why they failed. They were determined not to repeat any of those mistakes. Our Constitution works because it embodies a fundamentally correct understanding of human nature and incorporates effective checks and balances, guardrails and restraints on the use of power to prevent tyranny of the majority.

Our founders regarded pure democracy as a form of tyranny to be avoided. I cannot find one example of a democracy where the majority has not tyrannized a minority; it is occurring today in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, China, Russia, Mexico, Myanmar, Sudan, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia, Botswana and throughout much of the Arab world and most of Central America. During the past century over 100 million Europeans were slaughtered in genocides, ethnic cleansings, holocausts and pogroms, every one of which resulted from tyranny by the majority.

We needn’t look elsewhere for abuses of democracy; there are abundant examples here in the USA. From 1776 to the Constitution of 1787, Americans were effectively governed by 13 state constitutions – not by the Articles of Confederation. Some of those governments were experiments in pure democracy; they contained unicameral legislatures which, along with the governor, were directly elected yearly. Such governments were immediately and highly responsive to the mood of the electorate.

The results were so flagrantly abusive, dangerous and scary that it led, more so than anything else, to the Constitutional Convention. Our framers witnessed firsthand how the excesses of democracy unleashed unanticipated social and political forces. They were determined to correct these deficiencies and to protect against tyranny of the majority and the excesses of democracy. It was for that reason the Constitution contains such strong checks, balances, guardrails and restraints on power.

It is against this backdrop that Democrats want to use the barest of majorities in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate to enact, inter alia, all the following: (1) massive voting rights bill federalizing elections; (2) abolition of the Electoral College and election of the president by popular vote; (3) elimination of the filibuster; (4) expansion of the Supreme Court; (5) admission of D.C. and Puerto Rico as states; (6) voting rights for illegal aliens; and (7) changing the makeup of the Senate.

Democrats would turn the Senate into a clone of the House to pass transformational laws with a one-vote margin. They would unleash the forces of majoritarian tyranny that have plagued democracies since time immemorial. Their action would be opposed to all accumulated human wisdom about the relationship of man and the state including our American experience between 1776 and 1787. The Democrats are making a direct and savage frontal attack on our democracy that would forever change America.

Of course, the Republicans would reverse everything at their earliest opportunity, perhaps in a few years. Moreover, the Republicans may preemptively change to a pure majority to enact their agenda, knowing that the Democrats will do so at their earliest opportunity. Some of the laws Republicans could pass with a bare majority include: (1) national right to concealed carry; (2) national right to work; (3) abolish capital gains taxes; (4) unfettered energy production and transmission in ANWAR and federal lands; (5) abortion restrictions; and much, much more. What’s scary is that the Democrats know all this but are unconcerned because they intend to create a permanent majority such that there never again would be competitive elections held in America.

Let’s go back to first principles. What is the purpose of government? Is it to actualize the will of the barest possible majority at any given instant? Or, is it to preserve a democracy that has delivered justice, freedom, security and stability for 235 years?

The real attack on American democracy comes from the left. They want instantaneous actualization, as in the Reign of Terror during the French Revolution. It is easy to visualize Nancy Pelosi as Madame Defarge and AOC presiding over the Committee of Public Safety as her squad screeches in unison “off with their heads“.

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Coming March 13th – Why government fails and business succeeds.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
MLLG

Socialism, Toilet Paper, Taxes and More

Socialism resulted in chronic shortages of meat, fish, bread, milk and yes – toilet paper.

Socialism, Toilet Paper, Taxes and More

By: George Noga – February 27, 2022

Democratic Socialist or Social Democrat: It is critically important which word is the noun and which is the adjective. Socialists like Bernie Sanders and AOC like to cloak themselves in the mantle of Scandinavian social democrats, who promote robust social benefits – but all within the ambit of a capitalist democracy. Don’t be fooled by this maskirovka. When the words are reversed, socialist becomes the operative word and democratic merely a modifier. Social democrats give you countries like Sweden and Denmark; democratic socialists give you hell holes like Venezuela and Cuba.

Socialist Humor: A journalist enters a store in Venezuela and asks if there is any meat. The clerk replies, “This is the store with no fish; the store with no meat is across the street.” The journalist dutifully writes in his notebook “no fish, no meat“. Next, the journalist goes into a bakery; finding no bread, he jots down “no bread“. Then he goes into a dairy store and once again finding the shelves bare, he enters “no milk“. A secret police agent following the journalist then goes up to him and says, “You could be shot for writing that“. Whereupon, the journalist writes in his notebook “no bullets“.

“Workers were issued their own personal roll of toilet paper.”

Toilet Paper and Socialism: Commies are not only incapable of producing meat, fish, bread and milk, they could not produce toilet paper. In workplaces throughout the Soviet Union, there never was any toilet paper in the stalls because it instantly would be stolen. Instead, each worker periodically was issued his personal roll of toilet paper for use while at work. This is not a joke; welcome to the socialist workers’ paradise.

Note: We do not publish these vignettes to heap ridicule, however well deserved, on the commies of yore and their present day look-alikes. Our purpose is to remind people that this will happen here if we continue down the path of progressivism.

“The IRS answers only 3% of all calls to taxpayer services.”

Democrat Tax Increases: House Dems voted for 87,000 more IRS auditors to conduct 1.2 million more audits annually. Incredulously, this equals only 13.8 audits per year for each new agent. There is something terribly wrong with this metric; why can’t each agent perform five or ten times that number? I am reminded of Will Rogers’ quip, “Thank God we don’t get all the government we pay for“. To make matters worse, the burden of the new audits would fall predominantly on small business and the middle class; the wealthy use high-octane tax professionals and are effectively audit proof. The Democrats want to fund IRS enforcement by 2,300% more than taxpayer services. Last year 97% of all calls to IRS taxpayer services (help line) went unanswered.

The law passed by the Dems raises the effective personal income tax rate to 57.4%, the highest in the developed world. Many blue states will have a combined marginal rate above 60%. They voted to increases the top marginal capital gains rate to 37% – the highest in 50 years. They also voted to increase the tax on home heating fuel.

Identity Politics: The EPA recently issued a press release heralding new appointments to its Science Advisory Board; it began as follows: “Today the EPA announced the selection for membership of the Science Advisory Board, which will be comprised of 22 women and 25 men, including 16 people of color, making it the most diverse ever.” How comforting it is to know that our science is in the hands of a group balanced by race and gender. This is a disservice to any appointees selected on the basis of merit.

Biden announced his Supreme Court appointment would be a black woman. This not only would be illegal in the private sector, it is a colossal disservice to his nominee. Biden is announcing his nominee will be selected based on identity and not on merit.

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Next on March 6th – The progressive assault on our democracy.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
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On the Origin and Nature of Government

Neolithic barbarians understood economics better than many of today’s predator class.

On the Origin and Nature of Government

By: George Noga – February 20, 2022

Primitive societies had leaders but no government. Small bands of hunter-gatherers and nomads lived from hand to mouth dependent of the exigencies of the hunt, the bounty of the sea and the caprice of nature; they never generated an economic surplus. They moved from place to place and were not easy targets for predators. Nonetheless, such primitive bands frequently were victimized by roving bandits. However, the bandits, once they had plundered what little booty that was available, moved on to plunder others; after all, there was no incentive for them to remain behind.

All that changed during the Neolithic Revolution when people learned agriculture and created permanent settlements. Now humans generated a regular economic surplus and were more vulnerable to bandits because they had more to plunder and had to remain in one location. Once again, roving bandits came to plunder; however, they were not stupid. There was an incentive for them to stay to plunder permanently. Roving bandits became stationary bandits, forcefully subjugating the populus and keeping out other bandits. They had a monopoly of the use of force and, bingo, government was born.

A regular economic surplus is an a piori condition for the existence of a state; hence, government cannot exist without entrepreneurs. Without those who accumulate capital, take risks and create things people need or want, government could not exist. Even the earliest farmers had to build capital to support their families while the crops were grown and they had to overcome many risks such as weather and pestilence. Meanwhile, the now permanent bandits did nothing constructive and even imposed obstacles to productivity; they also took a big chunk for themselves.

There is little difference in principle between the stationary bandits of yore and today’s governing class. Instead of kings and emperors, they now call themselves presidents and prime ministers. They both have a monopoly on the legal use of force; they both hinder production; they both take a large share for themselves; and they both are permanent. The difference is that, instead of conquest, today’s rulers achieve power by guile, ersatz promises, lies, bribery and pitting people against each other.

Even today, we might be better off governed by Neolithic barbarians wearing animal skins. At least they understood that government does not create wealth and that things had to be produced before they could be plundered. They understood that imposing regulations and creating obstacles and uncertainty reduced the amount of plunder. Some of the barbarians even grasped that plundering less today enabled them to plunder more tomorrow – benefitting both the plunderers and the plundered.

Moreover, the barbarians of yore sometimes got sated and left us alone for awhile. Today’s predator class never gets sated and never leaves us alone.

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Next on February 27th – Socialism and Toilet Paper.

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Spending Crisis Locomotive Nearing the Abyss

“God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America.” (Otto von Bismarck)

Spending Crisis Locomotive Nearing the Abyss

By: George Noga – February 13, 2022

The spending crisis is one of MLLG’s signature issues – along with climate change and school choice. Our last update was in our post of 2/7/21 and it is time for another. First however, we take a look back to our prior projections about the spending crisis.

Over 10 years ago I wrote a 24-page report entitled “The Crisis of Spending, Debt and Deficits“; it was printed and mailed (USPS) to our readers – which were much fewer in number back then. It is not on our website. I had not given this report any attention in many years and had nearly forgotten about it until one of our longtime readers asked for a copy. I reread the report and was flabbergasted to see how accurate it was!

Nearly 12 years ago, I projected that in 2021 GDP would be $21 trillion, public debt $26 trillion and the ratio 124%. The best data available for year-end 2021 are GDP of $23 trillion and debt of $25 trillion for a ratio of 109%. For reference, back in 2010 GDP stood at $15 trillion, debt at $9 trillion and the ratio at 60%. No one – absolutely no economists anywhere – and most certainly not the CBO – were projecting anything even remotely close to the data published by MLLG. Note: I actually published three projections; the one cited herein is the middle (or most realistic) case.

My projection was not a lucky guess. I spent hundreds of hours during the summer of 2010 while in Montana constructing a computer model of the US economy. I used that model to generate the data in the published report. I did not merely project a ratio, I built the data from the ground up. My projection was accurate because I made realistic assumptions about, inter alia, recessions, spending and taxation. Readers may decide for themselves, but my past accuracy should confer a strong presumption of present credibility about the spending crisis. As a reminder, I call it the spending crisis rather than the debt crisis because the crisis ultimately results from uncontrolled spending.

At its heart, it is not really a spending crisis – it is a moral crisis.

I again have spent many hours updating projections. Surprisingly, the 2021 (debt/GDP) ratio was better than projected in 2020 because of the stronger than expected economic recovery from the pandemic. Future debt ratios depend primarily on: (1) economic growth; (2) tax rates and collections; (3) interest rates; (4) timing, length and depth of recessions; (5) inflation; and (6) any spending blowouts such as BBB. There are many variables and uncertainties such as possible natural disasters and military conflicts.

I have run numerous projections with various combinations of economic growth, taxes, inflation, spending, interest rates and recessions. The best I now can project is that the ratio will be near 150% in 5 years and over 200% in 10 years – on its way to the moon. In later years the ratio would hit 500% and even 1,000%, but that is moot because the locomotive would go over the cliff long before the ratio reached such numbers. God may love fools, drunks and the USA, but nothing can save us from a ratio of 500%.

I call it a spending crisis, but at its heart it is not really a spending crisis; it is not really a debt crisis; it is not really a deficit crisis; it is a moral crisis! We chose – whether consciously or unconsciously matters not – to take from our children and grandchildren rather than to control our own spending. We refused to make tough choices, falsely thinking we could buy social peace. We elected politicians who promised the moon was made of Stilton. We chose, and are continuing to choose, to condemn our progeny to a lost generation in a Clockwork Orange world filled with existential threats.

Even worse, we stole from future generations – not to save America from some manmade or natural calamity – but to pay for a perpetual New Years Eve party.

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Next on February 20th – the origin and nature of government.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

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America Needs More Jury Trials . . . Chauvin-Rittenhouse-Smollett-Arbery-Potter-Holmes

America’s criminal justice system must have more involvement by citizens.

America Needs More Jury Trials . . .

Chauvin-Rittenhouse-Smollett-Arbery-Potter-Holmes

By: George Noga – February 6, 2022

One of the bright spots in American democracy is our jury system. Most Americans join me in believing that the juries got it right 100% of the time in the six recent headline-grabbing trials listed above. Juries are fallible, but they represent the best way to deliver justice and to check against government run amok. Unfortunately, today in America a jury trial is a vastly underutilized right. Instead of a jury system, we now have a plea system with 96% of criminal cases settled without a jury trial.

“I consider trial by jury the only anchor imagined by man, by which a
government can be held to the principles of its constitution.” (Jefferson)

The right to a jury trial is the only right mentioned in both the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and more words are devoted to it than to any other right. The founders intended to put citizens at the beating heart of our criminal justice system. However, plea bargains, unknown to America’s founders, now dominate criminal cases.

Plea bargains are more problematic for our democracy than jury trials. Defendants often are coerced to plead guilty due to police and prosecutorial misconduct as well as plea deals cleverly designed to induce an innocent defendant to accept the proffered plea rather than to chance a trial and a much more severe sentence. Defendants often are overcharged to pressure them, even though the sluiced up charges would dramatically wither away in a courtroom. Plea bargains cover up police misconduct and relieve prosecutors from having to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

American juries have a long and glorious history. The Salem witch trials ended only after 52 straight acquittals and/or hung juries. Northern juries acquitted abolitionists charged under the Fugitive Slave Laws. Juries speeded the end of prohibition and acquitted protestors during the Vietnam War. Juries refused to convict LGTBQs charged with consensual sex under sodomy laws. The right of a juror to vote his conscience goes back over 1,000 years and is traceable directly to Magna Carta.

The right of a jury to vote conscience is traceable to Magna Carta.

In a trial, jurors can go well beyond determining the facts. They can choose to exercise their independent life experience, concept of justice, wisdom and beliefs. Following are some of the situations where a jury may choose to exercise conscientious acquittal and nullify a flawed law or prosecution: (1) the accused never intended to commit a crime; (2) an honest citizen acted in good faith; (3) vague or unknown laws; (4) the minimum sentence is out of proportion; (5) laws that shouldn’t exist; (6) law applied selectively or misapplied; (7) police/prosecutorial abuse; (8) overzealous enforcement; (9) reliance on paid informants; (10) victimless crimes; (11) matters of conscience.

America’s founding documents and system of government depend on citizens being involved in the criminal justice system. We need to rein in plea bargains to hold the government to account. Not everyone may agree with the outcomes of the trials of Chauvin, Rittenhouse, Smollett, Arbery, Potter and Holmes, but we all should be able to agree the juries discharged their duties faithfully. That is the American way.

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Next on February 13th, an update about the worsening spending crisis.

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More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us