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Best Time to Have Lived as an American

George Noga

From 1776 to 2022 – When was the best time to have lived as an American?

Special Independence Day Posting . . .

Best Time to Have Lived as an American

By: George Noga – July 3, 2022

As I celebrate Independence Day 2022, I feel privileged to have lived at the best time to be an American. Regrettably, my joy is tinctured with sadness for reasons you will see infra. For years, I have heard an eerily similar refrain from people of my post-war generation and of all political persuasions. Most expressed it unsolicited and with fervor, i.e., the belief our generation has lived during the best time to be an American.

When my interlocutors express this view, invariably they are making a statement that is much more about the future than about the past. To a person – they believe the future will be worse and our children and grandchildren will inhabit a dystopian, multi-polar world of wokism and climate madness, combined with an existential debt crisis. America in 2022 hauntingly resembles Yeats’ The Second Coming; his apocalyptic poem describes a world coming apart and foretells of an impending crisis.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer;

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere

The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

The best lack all conviction while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.

There is a strong case that the period from WWII to the present was the best time to be an American. Although there were wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the post-war period was devoid of hot wars involving major powers. Astounding advances occurred in every field: medicine, genetics, transport, computers, consumer electronics and life expectancy. There were transformative advances for women, blacks, LGTBQ, elderly, and even animals. Economic progress was breathtaking and included the virtual elimination of poverty, increased leisure and an active period of retirement measured in decades. No prior period comes remotely close to such progress.

The time since WWII has indeed been great; but Americans always have believed, as an article of faith, that the future would be even better. Strikingly, not a single one of my interlocutors believes the future will be brighter for our progeny. Consequently, the belief that my generation lived at the best time to be an American has a profound and dark corollary, i.e. the conviction that America’s future will be worse – much worse.

There is a crisis of authority – turning in the widening gyre, the falcon cannot hear the falconer. Politics has become extreme; people demonize those with opposing views – the centre cannot hold; mere anarchy is loosed upon the world. There will be a Clockwork Orange (blood-dimmed) future where our children’s innocence is drowned. Too many Americans (conservatives) lack the conviction to stop our drift to socialism while the worst of us (progressive ideologues) are full of passionate intensity.

All the institutions Americans always could fall back on in difficult times have become hopelessly corrupted and politicized. The media eschew truth and embrace advocacy; fact checkers distort and lie; truth is elusive. Science is politicized, including climate, pandemics and gender. Education, from kindergarten through college, is hyper-political and fails to teach. Sports is corrupted with wokism, BLM and gender issues. Our criminal justice system favors criminals with abolition of bail, decriminalization and prosecutors who won’t prosecute. Immigration is badly broken and politicized.

Our politics is extreme and caters to identity and to the lowest common denominator among us; it seeks to separate Americans by race, gender, income and age. Our election systems are wide open to fraud on a massive scale. Corporations have been infected with woke capitalism, substituting symbolic and rhetorical placebos for economic value. Our military has become woke and is afflicted by white privilege and transgender issues. Religion, including even the Pope, is confused about right and wrong. Climate madness spawns mass delusion. Economists embrace MMT and tell us we can borrow without limit and that the moon is made of Stilton.

All our trusted institutions have self-destructed and we are slouching toward socialism and ultimately to Gomorrah. I close with the final two lines of The Second Coming.

And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,

Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born?

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Next up on July 10th: Annus horribilis at the half way mark.

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Supreme Court Decision About Abortion

George Noga

The decision is not about abortion per se; it’s about who gets to decide.

MLLG SPECIAL MID-WEEK POSTING . . .

Supreme Court Decision About Abortion

By: George Noga – June 28, 2022

We usually don’t blog about current events; such information, along with commentary and analysis, is readily available from other sources. However, I believe we have some perspectives and insights on the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health (“Dobbs”) decision, overturning Roe v. Wade (“Roe”), that you are not likely to read elsewhere. This post is longer than usual, but I hope and believe you will find it worthwhile.

The court’s landmark rulings regarding the right to bear arms and abortion, twisted progressives into pretzels. They argue that the right to bear arms, explicitly enshrined in the Constitution, doesn’t mean what it plainly states, while simultaneously arguing that abortion, not mentioned in the Constitution, is a sacred right. Liberals say the January 6th protests threatened democracy at the same time they threaten the court.

Trump ran and was elected on appointing pro-life justices and his appointments were confirmed by a democratically elected senate. As smugly stated by Barack Obama, “elections have consequences“. The court in Dobbs returned abortion to the states to be democratically decided by citizens via the political process. More democracy please.

Logic for Overturning Roe is Overwhelming

Roe was wrongly decided from the git-go. The court created the right to an abortion based on “emanations from a penumbra”, i.e. out of thin air. Not only is abortion not mentioned in the US Constitution, it’s not in any of the 50 state constitutions. Abortion is not a part of English common law, was neither law nor custom at the time the Constitution was drafted, nor were there any lower court decisions affirming abortion.

In 1973 the states were working their way through the abortion minefield when the Roe decision was handed down. Roe short circuited the political process and democracy; it usurped the right of Americans to make a moral decision about abortion. Roe was supposed to settle the issue and bring peace; instead, it spawned a half century of chaos and poisoned our politics. It made Supreme Court appointments radioactive and turned the confirmation process into a circus. The court has overturned its precedents over 300 times; overturning Roe is entirely consistent with American jurisprudence.

As is often the case, Justice Antonin Scalia stated it best. He makes a powerful case that contentious moral issues such as abortion should be decided democratically by the people. The following quote is Justice Scalia at his best.

“By foreclosing all democratic outlet for the deep passions this issue arouses, by banishing the issue from the political forum that gives all participants, even the losers, the satisfaction of a fair hearing and an honest fight, by continuing the imposition of a rigid national rule instead of allowing regional differences, the Court merely prolongs and intensifies the anguish. We should get out of this area where we have no right to be, and where we do neither ourselves nor the country any good by remaining.”

Lessons from Europe

European countries grappled with abortion through the political process. Because the issue was decided democratically via elections, abortion no longer is a highly contentious subject. Forty-seven of fifty (94%) European nations permit abortion, usually between 12 and 24 weeks, with 15 weeks (first trimester) being the norm.

European laws are not as permissive as most Americans likely believe, even though much of Europe is more liberal than the US. Many nations impose waiting periods of from three to seven days. Most (nearly all) require parental consent for minors to have an abortion. Many countries also require counseling prior to having an abortion.

What’s Next for the United States

The Dobbs decision is not about abortion per se; it’s about who gets to decide. Under our system of federalism, it is now up to the states. There already are many differences among states about abortion as well as things like guns, marriage, alcohol, etc. For most people, the changes will be slight. The vast majority of women (or should I say birthing people) live in large liberal blue states. Also, nearly all (about 90%) abortions already are within 15 weeks – the likely deadline for many states. For those few adversely affected, employers and other organizations will pick up the cost for travel.

There are Prospective Benefits from Dobbs

Progressives now will be forced to persuade voters of the rectitude of their position instead of threats, bullying and violence. This will be a difficult transition as libs are not accustomed to persuasion and they intensely distrust truth, the people and states. When the initial progressive panic subsides, not all that much will be different.

There also are prospective benefits. Over time, abortion will become much less contentious – just like everywhere else in the world. Supreme Court appointments and confirmations will be much less charged. Future generations may even come to believe that Roe versus Wade were George Washington’s options for crossing the Delaware.

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Coming on Sunday: Don’t miss our uber-special Independence Day posting.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
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America’s Quest for Truth

George Noga

Americans are desperate for a reliable source of truth; we have an answer.

America’s Quest for Truth

By: George Noga – June 26, 2022

This is a sequel to our post of May 8, 2022, available on our website: www.mllg.us. Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has progressives all atwitter. They are in a panic that truly free speech will blast gaping holes in their dike of lies, obfuscation and maskirovka. This post explores how content moderation (if any) might operate in a truly free speech environment. We follow that up with an intriguing idea for how America can have a 100% accurate, objective and principled source of truth.

Content Moderation for a Post Elon Musk Twitter

There is a strong impulse to want to eliminate content moderation altogether; upon reflection, this is impractical. As a private company, Twitter can moderate speech as it chooses. There should be no dispute about eliminating certain users (bots) and content (porn and spam). Personal threats and incitement to violence also should be banned.

Other than the few exceptions noted supra, there should be no moderation whatsoever. That means no moderation for misinformation or even for clearly false content. That means no moderation for hate speech or slurs whether racial, gender, ethnic, religious, LGTBQ+ or against any other protected groups. Above all, that means absolutely no viewpoint moderation. We agree with Barack Obama when he said, “The strongest weapon against hateful speech is not repression, it is more speech.”

Technologically, it is possible for users individually to opt-in or to opt-out of offensive speech moderation. That seems like a solution that should please everyone; there would be free speech for most, while sheltering snowflakes from microaggressions.

Fair Witnesses as a Source for Truth

Journalism in America died many years ago. Fake news, misinformation and outright lies proliferate. Fact checkers are politicized and corrupt. There is no accurate, principled, competent, unimpeachable and non-political source for checking facts.

One answer lies in the Fair Witness concept originated by Robert Heinlein in his 1961 book, Stranger in a Strange Land. The fair witness concept resonated with me when I read Heinlen’s book; apparently, it also resonated with a great many others. Despite the fair witness concept being but a small part of an obscure book published over 60 years ago, it has 95 million Google hits – – 50% more than Elvis Presley and Pope Francis. Note: A similar concept, Mentats, was created by sci-fi writer Frank Herbert (Dune).

Heinlein’s book is set in the milieu of an overbearing government (familiar?). The only way citizens could counter the overweening power of the state was to hire a fair witness, a specially trained person so truthful and objective as to be unimpeachable. Fair witnesses were professionals with an eidetic memory and trained to make no extrapolations or assumptions and to report exactly what is observed; they wore distinctive white robes and were accorded deferential treatment by all of society.

Americans hunger for a reliable source of truth. A fair witness concept could be implemented today. It must be led by a person or organization that commands unquestioned credibility. The staffing could come from consulting firms, big four accounting firms, judges and scientists. The training must be rigorous. All work would be peer reviewed and would have to be right nearly 100% of the time. There would be a Chinese Wall such that those doing the work don’t know who is paying for it.

A huge market for truth exists; the time is right; the public is ready. Imagine the possibilities! It would bring about a renaissance in politics, the media and marketing. Consider the situation if politicians no longer could get away with a lie. Good science fiction speaks to us today. That’s why an idea that appeared on only a few pages of an obscure sci-fi tract published 61 years ago resonates with 95 million people today. Anything that informs people of the truth can be nothing but an unalloyed blessing.

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Next is our special not-to-be-missed Independence Day posting.

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Time to go all in on School Choice

George Noga

Force progressive school choice opponents to defend the indefensible.

Time to go all in on School Choice

By: George Noga – June 19, 2022

School choice is one of our signature issues about which we have written extensively. Last week’s post described my lifetime of experience with government schools as a student, teacher, parent and choice activist. I published a six-part “Back to School” series (7/25/21 to 8/29/21). All of these are available on our website: www.mllg.us.

The American school choice movement began 31 years ago with the first private voucher program in Indianapolis; in Florida, it began in 1994. Since the inception of the movement, there has been notable progress, with 40 states adopting some form of choice. Within the past year, largely in response to the problems with government schools exposed by the pandemic, 30 states expanded school choice programs.

Although the movement toward school choice has grown, it represents only a small part of total enrollment. Nowhere is it available to more than a small minority of students. Although Florida is often (justifiably) cited as a leader in school choice, it applies to only 200,000 students out of 3,000,000 or 6.7%. There is no US state or political subdivision with universal choice. This must change and the time is now.

School choice is demonstrably good politics. Ron DeSantis would not be governor and positioned to make a presidential run in 2024 without his strong support of choice, combined with his opponent’s vow to abolish vouchers. (His opponent was captive to unions.) Black voucher moms voted 18% for DeSantis while voting only 9% for other state GOP candidates and 7% for the GOP nationally. This resulted in 100,000 more votes for DeSantis, without which he would have lost. The same thing happened in Arizona where Governor Doug Ducey received a 15% boost from Latino voters.

The pandemic exposed many parents to the horrors of government schools for the first time and they were shocked by what they saw – including all the following.

  • School boards and PTAs that are 100% beholden to teacher unions
  • Mask/vaccine mandates that harmed children medically and emotionally
  • Unnecessary school closures that resulted in 1-2 years loss of learning
  • Pornography in grade school libraries
  • Indoctrination in values antithetical to those of the parents
  • Children as early as kindergarten encouraged to question their gender
  • Critical Race Theory – teaching that nothing matters except race
  • Dismal performance compared to private, parochial and foreign schools
  • Teaching the 1619 project that America’s founding was based on race

Universal school choice is a timely and potent issue for 2022, coming on the heels of parents’ revulsion of government schools. Republicans should make this their number one issue and ram it down the throats of their opponents. They should repeat it so often Democrats never again want to hear “school choice” uttered. Make them defend the indefensible. The GOP can make huge inroads in the Black, Hispanic, moderate Democrat and independent vote and scare the bejesus out of progressives. Note: MLLG is non-partisan; however, we support school choice and Democrats oppose it.

The school choice movement has come far in 30 years, but it still has a long way to go until that magical moment when every family in America has the power to choose. There are 50 million K-12 students in America and only about 3 million have the power to choose; that leaves 47 million American children at the mercy of the unions and the educational blob. We must empower every family so that the money follows the child. The most potent force on earth is parents armed with a school voucher!

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Next Sunday: More about Twitter and the search for truth in America.

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My Lifetime of Experience with Government Schools

George Noga

Immediately upon entering the classroom, I knew something was terribly wrong.

My Lifetime of Experience with Government Schools

By: George Noga – June 12, 2022

 

Readers have requested that I share some personal stories that have shaped my beliefs. Following is my story of a lifetime of experience with government schools.

 

I still vividly recall my third-grade experience in 1952 after we had moved to a town in Georgia. My mother enrolled me in the assigned government school and accompanied me to my assigned classroom where I was to remain. Although I was only 9 years old, I knew immediately something was terribly wrong. The scene that greeted us was straight from the movie Deliverance, not uncoincidentally filmed nearby. My mother, equally horrified, enrolled me in parochial school, even though our family couldn’t afford the cost. St. Theresa’s proved to be the polar opposite of the pathologically dysfunctional public school. This was a transcendental moment in my young life.

 

I attended either parochial schools or ones on military bases until ninth grade when I was relegated to government schools in our new home in Central Florida. This time there was to be no escape. These schools were educational cesspools; any learning that took place was purely coincidental. The teachers harbored delusions of adequacy. Most everyone understood these schools were educational wastelands, but no one cared.

 

Government school failure is endemic and incapable of reform.

 

It immediately became apparent what the priority was, in one word: football. Not that many decades ago, there were 150,000 school districts in the US; today that number is 15,000. Smaller schools and districts are much better for learning and parental control. So, why have 135,000 school districts disappeared? The answer, again in one word: football. Larger schools have a greater chance of having bigger and faster players.

 

The top priority of the high school I attended was to build its own football stadium. The entire community pitched in with fundraisers, building materials and labor. People know how to build a football field but not how to fix a badly broken school. Football has scores published each week in the newspaper, but no such thing exists for learning.

 

My next experience with government schools was in 1967 during a six-month hiatus between graduate school and active duty in the army. Ostensibly, I taught junior high math, but maintaining discipline required full time effort; teaching was incidental. The administration cared only about avoiding complaints from parents. I was told not to fail anyone. Ironically, the school was highly regarded; but it really was dysfunctional. It failed everyone: students, teachers, parents and the community. This was a dismal experience, and it has only gotten worse – much worse – in the ensuing 55 years.

 

Fast forward many years. We now live in the Florida county with the highest per capita income and which reputedly has the best schools in the state. Moreover, we reside in the best part of that county with reputedly the best government schools in that county. Despite living in an area with the best public schools in the entire state of 20 million people, the schools were only borderline adequate. We sent our children there only for a few years of elementary school; the junior high and high schools were unacceptable.

 

Fast forward to 1994 when I started the first school voucher effort in Florida. The program I started and ran for its first ten years, now called Step Up For Students, today funds private school scholarships for 103,000 children from low-income families at a cost of $700 million. During the time I ran this program, I heard countless stories from grateful parents of our scholarship recipients about the horrors they experienced in government schools and how well their children now were doing in their new schools.

Read my post of 7/25/21 at www.mllg.us for a history of school choice in Florida.

 

The USA is a big country and there still are some good public schools. One such place is our summer home in NW Montana where schools are highly regarded and reinforce, rather than contradict, parental values. A family we know recently moved there from Florida and is ecstatic about their children’s public schools. There are no closures, masks or vaccine mandates. When school is out, children are on their own. Kids proudly bring to class photos of game they bagged during hunting season. Some, as young as 8, participate in youth bull riding. PTAs raffle AK-47s to raise money.

 

The lesson of my lifetime of experience with government schools as a student, teacher, parent and school choice advocate is that they are jobs programs for adults; children are afterthoughts. However bad you may believe government schools are, the reality is much worse. And it is not just about education; it is about values, safety and culture.

 

As with any government program, school failure is endemic and incapable of reform. The only solution is universal school choice; the money must follow the student thereby empowering families to be free to choose. Absolutely nothing else will work. There is no force on earth more powerful than parents armed with a school voucher!

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Next – We continue with school choice and its role in the upcoming election.

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California Screaming – Prince of Fools

George Noga

The republic can survive a Biden, but not an electorate that made him president.

California Screaming – Prince of Fools

By: George Noga – June 5, 2022

California Screaming: The Cato Institute recently published the results of its multi-year project, Poverty and Inequality in California. You may be surprised that California, despite Silicon Valley and Hollywood, has the highest poverty rate in the USA. Moreover, poverty and inequality are getting worse by the day. The study found the cause is “California laws, regulations and policies are regressive, trapping people in poverty. . . . These policies involve criminal justice, education, housing and welfare.” California has had the most progressive government of any state for decades. Instead of utopia, liberal ideas have wrought the worst poverty and inequality in America.

Freedom Index: Cato also just released its Index of Personal and Economic Freedom for 2021. The five highest ranking (most freedom) states are, in order, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Tennessee and South Dakota. The lowest ranking (least freedom) are New York, Hawaii, California, New Jersey and Oregon. The states with the most freedom all are red or purple; the bottom dwellers all are deep blue. Americans are voting en masse with their feet for more liberty and less government.

Prince of Fools: Following (edited for length) is from a major European newspaper. “The danger to America is not Joe Biden, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him to the presidency. It will be far easier to undo the follies of a Biden presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to those who elected him. The problem is much deeper and more serious than Mr. Biden, who is but a symptom of what ails America. The republic can survive a prince of fools like Biden, but is less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who elected him.”

If Biden is the prince of fools, Kamala Harris is the queen of fools. Although the Trump presidency, or at least its policies, turned out much better than expected, he never should have been nominated or elected. He won the nomination only because 15 professional politicians all misread the electorate. He was elected only because Hillary Clinton was radioactive. Biden won, despite obvious signs of cognitive decline, because suburban women were triggered by mean tweets. In 2024 it could very well be a Trump- Clinton rematch – see my post of 5/22/22 on our website: www.mllg.us. How much longer can our beloved republic survive an electorate like this?

Permanent State of Emergency: Governments at all levels have learned their powers are vastly increased during an emergency – even if they created the emergency. It is no wonder we are in a permanent state of emergency: pandemic emergency, voting rights emergency, climate emergency and now an energy emergency. Nothing encapsulates the fecklessness of the Biden Administration more than energy. Immediately upon taking office, Biden declared war on the US energy sector in every way possible.

Biden feigns shock energy production plummeted and prices skyrocketed. He declared an ersatz state of emergency to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, after first begging Venezuela (dirty oil) and Iran (fund terrorism) to produce more. Biden has reverted to the progressive playbook and is blaming greedy speculators and energy companies. Funny – these same groups were not greedy when prices were falling under Trump.

Achieving Perfect Equality: Since men first trod this earth, many have dreamt of a world with perfect equality; thanks to scientific advances, that now may be possible. The best minds on the planet could create a master algorithm incorporating all known markers of success. The algorithm would include DNA and would account for, inter alia, race, gender, sexual orientation, height, weight, IQ and life expectancy.

Key exogenous factors also would be included in the master algorithm: place of birth, social class, family income and education level, et seq. The result is a polygenic score assigned to everyone at birth. Those with positive scores would pay a polygenic tax while those with negative scores would receive a benefit – in direct proportion to how much the scores were positive or negative. If done correctly, this would make everyone equal. It is only a matter of time until progressives adopt this idea and run with it.

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Next: My lifetime of experience with government schools.

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Liberty: Death by A Thousand Cuts

George Noga

State and local governments routinely assault our liberty in countless ways.

Liberty: Death by A Thousand Cuts

By: George Noga – May 29, 2022

MLLG usually focuses on issues of national scope; however, Americans are more directly affected by local and state government laws, taxes, regulations and actions. Throughout the USA, local governments assault our liberty in thousands of ways; this post describes some of the most egregious. Fortunately, the Institute for Justice (IJ), a public interest law group, ferociously defends liberty in many of the following cases.

Legal Marijuana: Pre-legalization, marijuana (1) enriched criminal cartels; (2) created powerful economic incentives for distributors; (3) spawned turf wars resulting in murder and mayhem; (4) corrupted police, judges and entire governments; and (5) made drug dealers into role models. The purpose of legalization was to end all these horrors as it did with alcohol. Instead, local governments, particularly in Colorado and California, imposed such high taxes and onerous regulations on legal growers and sellers that the illegal trade still is profitable. To top it off the craziness, the Biden Administration is proposing a 163-page bill imposing an added federal 25% tax and voluminous new federal regulations. Now we have the worst of both worlds.

Occupational licenses; barriers to entry: The impetus for licensing comes from industry groups with vested interests in preventing competition. California prohibits anyone without a high school diploma from attending vocational school unless they pass a government exam. Sale of home baked goods require commercial grade kitchens. A Texas town refused to issue a license to a one-man business without adding 28 parking spaces. To become a barber in 20 large cities requires over a year of training and compliance with costly regulations. Any barber who wants to open a shop must navigate a mind-numbing array of zoning, permits, taxes, inspections and licenses. All together, this costs over $3,000, requires 16 forms and over 55 steps before opening.

Asset forfeiture and policing for profit: Police in many states confiscate cash from citizens during routine traffic stops without charging them with a crime. They use this money for their own benefit, giving them a nefarious motive. In Philadelphia alone, there have been 30,000 such cases. In one Alabama town, police pull over residents for spurious reasons, handcuff the drivers, search the cars and have them towed and impounded. Owners are forced to pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars to recover their cars. As always, most victims are from disadvantaged communities. Shakedowns just like this take place every day in cities and towns across America.

More Examples of Death by a Thousand Cuts

There are many other instances where state and local governments stifle liberty. Due to space constraints, we can only summarize the most egregious ones herein.

Guardianship laws: In many states older people often are declared incapacitated with little or no due process. They lose the right to drive, vote, marry, hire an attorney, travel, consent to treatment and even choose with whom to talk or visit. Young people are free to make poor life choices without consequence; why not older people?

Food trucks: Many locales enact restrictions that make it impossible to operate food trucks, denying owners the right to earn a living.

Pandemic issues: States and cities imposed unconstitutional, arbitrary and capricious emergency edicts. It was okay for liquor stores to be open but not churches. Children lost one or two years of learning. Many lives were needlessly uprooted or harmed.

Property rights: Local governments disrespect property rights. They prohibit small homes by mandating minimum size, ban working from home, outlaw front yard vegetable gardens and ban businesses from placing signage in their own windows.

Fourth Amendment: Unreasonable and illegal searches, seizures and surveillance take place routinely in many jurisdictions. In Tennessee they enter private property to install cameras to search for hunting violations. In Florida, police harass families because a computer algorithm predicted a family member may commit a crime in the future.

School choice: Governments beholding to teacher unions restrict charter schools, teach CRT, gender dysphoria, the 1619 project and indoctrinate students in a state religion that directly conflicts with parental values. They oppose choice in every way possible.

We conclude with the story of Jaime, who has been a model citizen his entire adult life. He was hired for his dream job of an ocean rescue lifeguard, which required EMT certification, 200 hours of coursework and an exam. After meeting all of the requirements and passing the exam (on his first attempt), Jaime was denied a license because of a youthful non-violent drug conviction 20 years ago. His appeal required mounds of documents and time-consuming bureaucracy. Jaime’s story has a happy ending only because IJ took his case and ultimately prevailed. However, there are thousands and thousands of other cases like Jaime’s out there that cry out for justice.

The state and local government abuses of power described herein are but the tip of the iceberg. There is one, and only one, way to remedy this government lust for more power and that is – you guessed it – more liberty and less government.

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“California Screaming” leads off our next post which covers multiple topics.

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The Political Landscape for 2022 and 2024

George Noga

The chance of a Trump – Clinton rematch may be greater than you think .

The Political Landscape for 2022 and 2024

By: George Noga – May 22, 2022

It’s time for a political update. I modestly remind readers that my prior political posts have proven to be accurate – not only in picking winners and losers but in analyzing the electoral forces that decide elections. For example, I wrote that Trump would lose in 2020 if suburban women deserted him and that is precisely what happened.

The Outlook for November 2022

Every pundit and pollster is predicting a Republican tsunami this November and it does not require a genius political IQ to understand why. Biden’s job approval rating is abysmal, Kamala Harris is an embarrassment and Nancy Pelosi remains radioactive. The Republicans have a wide margin in the generic ballot. Redistricting following the 2020 census will help the GOP – but only marginally. There are a slew of Democrats not seeking reelection and that benefits Republicans. Polls show Hispanic voters with only a 29% job approval of Biden – which should scare the bejesus out of Democrats.

And then there are the issues. It is a political axiom that people vote their pocketbooks; remember: “It’s the economy stupid”. No issue is greater than inflation because it is impossible to spin. Every time voters buy gas, food or just about anything, they are rudely reminded about inflation. This issue alone will sink Democrats, but they are underwater on virtually every other issue including: national security (Afghanistan, Ukraine, Iran), immigration, crime, Covid, supply chain, education and energy.

The GOP will win the House in 2022; the Senate is uncertain

Given the extreme unpopularity of top Dems and their positions on issues, it would be easy to go along with the herd and predict a Republican sweep this November. I am more cautious. In midterm elections, the party in power usually loses around 40 House seats; most observers are predicting a Dem loss of 60 or more seats. I believe the GOP gain will be more like 20-30 seats, in large part because they already gained about 20 seats in the 2020 election – directly reducing their potential gain for this year.

In the Senate, the mathematics are daunting for the GOP; they are defending 22 seats while the Dems are defending only 12. Much depends on the quality of the candidates the GOP is able to run. With strong, well-funded candidates, the GOP is likely to gain control of the Senate, but it is by no means a certainty. However, in 2024 the calculus is bleak for Dems who must defend 23 Senate seats versus only 10 for Republicans.

The Outlook for 2024

I have difficulty seeing Biden run; he may not complete his current term. I have greater difficulty seeing Harris as the nominee; she would lead her party to disaster. The US will be such an economic wreck in 2024 that neither Biden nor Harris is viable. I see Hillary Clinton making another run and it would be sheer folly to count her out. The Dems (with one exception) do not have candidates who are not extremists. Their best chance to win is with Amy Klobuchar, who also happens to be a woman.

On the Republican side, it is all about Donald Trump, who was a great president if you judge him solely on accomplishments. He would have won in a shoo-in if it were not for the pandemic. Even with the pandemic, he would have won handily but for his persona and so-called mean tweets. Nonetheless, he is the only Republican nominee who could lose – quite possibly to none other than Hillary Rodham Clinton. Age also could be a factor; Clinton would be 81 and Trump 83 when their terms ended. After the Biden fiasco, the country may not be in the mood for another geriatric presidency.

Any Republican but Trump will be heavily favored in 2024.

Unlike the Dems, the GOP has a strong bench: inter alia, Cotton, DeSantis, Pence and Cruz. Any one of these (plus some others) would be heavily favored to win – easily defeating Hillary – who still has ultra high negatives. The only election Hillary can win is against Trump and for the same reason he lost in 2020 – suburban women.

With the sole caveat noted supra, the Republican nominee will be an overwhelming favorite in 2024 – mainly because the US will be an economic basket case with either continuing high inflation or a deep recession – or quite possibly both. Democrat failures in handling defense, foreign affairs, immigration, crime, energy and education all will come home to roost. The presidency will be the Republicans to lose; however, they are fully capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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Next on May 29th – A Catalog of Government Abominations

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MLLG

Continuing Coverage of the Spending Crisis . . . The Spending Crisis May Already Have Begun

George Noga

To control inflation, the interest rate must be higher than the inflation rate.

Continuing Coverage of the Spending Crisis . . .

The Spending Crisis May Already Have Begun

By: George Noga – May 15, 2022

For 15 years I have warned of a crisis of spending, debt and deficits, which I call the spending crisis because its root cause is spending. At first, I cautioned about a possible crisis and in recent years, a likely crisis. Once the debt ratio blew past 90%, it became an inevitable crisis. The only remaining questions are when will the crisis begin and how will it unfold. We know the crisis will not be transient and will result in a lost generation. It will end only when all excess debt is purged and taxes and spending are brought into balance, a lengthy and tortuous process that will transform America.

I often wrote that the crisis is likely to start suddenly and unexpectedly. I have used the example of a seemingly innocuous posting on Bloomberg going viral and, by the end of the day, the market for US government debt evaporates. That may still happen, but there is another – perhaps more likely – scenario. The crisis could begin stealthily and only in hindsight will we recognize it was the beginning of the crisis. There is, in fact, a very solid basis to believe that the spending crisis may already have started.

In chaos theory, complex systems like the US economy are inherently unpredictable. Small and seemingly insignificant events can lead to profound and non-linear impacts over time. In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a system results in large differences in later states, i.e. a small change in initial conditions cascades to a cataclysmic event. Thus, the present inflation could cascade into a life-altering crisis.

The true cause of the present inflation may not be monetary policy, but fiscal policy, i.e. spending, debt and deficits. When government debt exceeds what people expect can or will be repaid, they spend in the belief everything will be more expensive in the future. This drives up the price of all goods and services. If our present inflation is indeed being driven by fiscal policy – either entirely or in significant part – it can only be fixed via fiscal policy, i.e. higher taxes and/or draconian spending cuts. Further, that means that our present inflation is indeed signaling the start of the spending crisis

There are two, and only two, possibilities. The first is for the Fed to let inflation go unchecked, either intentionally or (more likely) by taking half-measures, i.e. to raise rates too little and/or too slowly. This will result in long term inflation which is the cruelest tax of all – and leads to social unrest and political extremism. This possibility will bring about the spending crisis. Of course, 100% inflation over say 10 years would cut the deficit in half. However, even halving the deficit would not end the crisis; the US still would be running a humongous fiscal deficit and would be back at square one.

The second possibility is for the Fed to jack up interest rates to counter inflation. To get inflation under control, interest rates must exceed the inflation rate. The last time the US had high inflation, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates to 20% to control 14% inflation. Imagine what would happen now if the Fed raised rates to say 15% to control our present inflation of 10%. That would cause a severe recession that adds many trillions to the debt. Moreover, it would not prevent the spending crisis.

Let’s recap. If the present inflation continues long term, social and political cohesion will disintegrate just as it has in other countries – the Weimar Republic comes to mind. If the Fed takes drastic action to halt inflation, that leads to a crisis as shown supra. Also, remember that if inflation is being caused by fiscal policy – it can only be fixed via fiscal policy. There is no way out of this situation. Either way, it is checkmate.

Following are the Five Main Takeaways

  1. If something cannot go on forever, it won’t.
  2. To tame inflation, the interest rate must exceed the inflation rate.
  3. The crisis ends only after excess debt is purged and the budget is in balance.
  4. If inflation is caused by fiscal policy, it can be ended only via fiscal policy.
  5. At its heart, it really is a moral crisis; rather than control our spending, we chose to borrow from future generations – and for all the wrong reasons.

There is a solid basis to believe the spending crisis has begun, but we will know for certain only in hindsight. No bells will toll to announce the start of the crisis.

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Next on May 22nd: The political outlook for 2022 and 2024.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Twitter and America’s Quest for Truth

George Noga

Journalism is dead; fake news proliferates; and fact-checkers are corrupt.

Twitter and America’s Quest for Truth

By: George Noga – May 8, 2022

THIS SPECIAL TWITTER POST REPLACES THE ONE SCHEDULED FOR TODAY ABOUT THE SPENDING CRISIS, WHICH NOW WILL BE PUBLISHED NEXT WEEK.

Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter has progressives caterwauling. They already control or dominate the media, entertainment, corporations, the military, sports, fact-checkers, education, science, criminal justice, immigration, universities and even religion. Among social media they effectively dominate or control Facebook, Snap, Instagram, YouTube, Google, Yahoo, Reddit, Tik Tok, Messenger and WhatsApp.

Why are liberals so apoplectic over Musk’s ownership of Twitter when they control over 90% of social media platforms as well as all the institutions listed in the previous paragraph? The answer in one word is: truth! The left distrusts and fears three things (1) states; (2) the people and, above all else, (3) truth. They don’t trust states and seek to federalize everything. They are terrified of Americans in flyover land, like those attending school board meetings. But their greatest hysteria is reserved for truth.

Progressives’ worst fear is that Twitter will rupture their dike of lies, obfuscation and maskirovka and that truth, in all its glory, will destroy the dike and flood into America, including, inter alia, the truth about Hillary Clinton’s role in the Russia collusion hoax and Hunter Biden’s laptop expose of the extensive corruption of the Biden family.

More Americans believe Elvis is alive than trust the media

Big social media companies have morphed into quasi government entities deputized to control speech in ways the state cannot do directly, such as censorship, propaganda and disinformation. They have become arms of the state and enemies of the people. Elon Musk’s control of Twitter quashes their ability to control dissent and hence elections.

The left’s attacks on Twitter will be vicious, never ending and already have begun. Regulators in the European Union already are planning restraints on Twitter through the guise of hate speech. Various federal regulators like the Federal Trade Commission are sharpening their knives. There will be attempts to throttle Twitter by far-left states. Expect to see enormous pressure from the left on advertisers to abandon Twitter

Just as Musk moved Tesla headquarters to Dallas, he should move Twitter out of San Francisco and to a friendly clime (Oklahoma) as his first move. He needs to clean house of the top managers – who, in any event, are unlikely to move to Oklahoma.

We will have much more about Twitter in the weeks and months ahead. We will tackle the thorny issue of how to moderate content – such as for disinformation, hate speech, clearly false tweets, threats and porn. Or, should there be no moderation whatsoever? MLLG is seriously considering establishing a Twitter presence to permit us to comment on important issues in real time – stay tuned for more information.

Journalism in America has been dead for many years. Fake news, disinformation and outright lies proliferate. Fact checkers are corrupt and there is no place to find truth. Nonetheless, the dismal failure of CNN+ combined with Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter offers glimmers of hope. Would it be that the promise of Twitter, under Elon Musk, will be in direct proportion to the progressive angst and paranoia!

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Coming next Sunday: Has the spending crisis already started?

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