I am still on summer break until after Labor Day. However, this special posting is possible because I am able to call the senate election much earlier than expected.
First, a gentle reminder about my political bona fides. I have 60 years of political experience and my record of calling elections in 20 years of blogging has been prescient – including calling Trump in 2016 and 100% of senate races in the prior 2022 midterm election.
Now that primary season is over and the nominees have been determined, it is clear Democrats have no realistic path to win control of the senate.
Senate seats in the classes of 2028 and 2030, and thus not up for election in 2026, are comprised of 33 Republicans (GOP) and 34 Democrats (Dems).1 In the class of 2026, there are 15 seats safe for the GOP and 10 seats safe for Dems.2 This results in 48 GOP seats and 44 Dem seats (total 92) that either are not up or are safe in 2026.
The GOP will have 50 senate seats and control the senate if they win Texas and Maine.
To cut to the chase, there is no realistic way Dems win Texas, and Maine likely is out of reach. Texas is a laugher; I expect the GOP to win by 500,000 votes. Maine will be closer, but not competitive. The Dem candidates in Texas and Maine are deeply flawed; and in Maine are up against someone who always outperforms polls.
When Texas and Maine are added to the GOP total, this gives them 50 seats and, with the vice president, control of the senate. This is not a surprise as Dems have known all along they needed Maine to have even an outside shot at the senate. Even if by some miracle the Dems win Maine, they would still need to win all 6 of the remaining seats in play including 3 that are leaning GOP. Don’t forget about Minnesota.
This means the GOP has 50 seats and the Dems 44 – with six that are competitive. Following are how things now stand with the six remaining states.
Alaska: The GOP is 90% likely to carry Alaska. The only possible roadblock is Dem shenanigans – running a candidate with the same name.
Michigan: Republicans are 80% likely to win. El Sayed is far (real far) outside the mainstream and he is up against a strong candidate who nearly won last time.
Iowa: The probability is 65% that the GOP will hold Iowa.
North Carolina: This is a toss-up.
New Hampshire: This is a 55% – 45% election in favor of the Dems. The GOP always comes close in NH and they have a real shot at winning this time. However, as of now they are the underdog.
Georgia: I handicap this as 60% likely to stay with the Dems.
Of the six that are competitive, three (Michigan, Alaska, Iowa) lean strongly GOP. The remaining three (Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina) are in the Democrat column or are in a dead heat.
My fearless forecast is the senate will be 53 Republican to 47 Democrat. For the Dems to take control would require them to win Maine, plus all 6 competitive states and Minnesota, a Sisyphean task for which the probability is infinitesimal.
House of Representatives
The house is the polar opposite of the senate. Anything is possible. The conventional wisdom is that there are only about 18 seats that are competitive. However, there could be a blue wave if Iran is not settled and inflation spikes, plus the historic pattern of the party out of power gaining seats. There could be a red wave if voters punish the Dems for their embrace of socialism – really, communism.
As the election approaches, stay tuned for more fearless forecasts from MLLG.
Independents are counted as Democrats.
Although Minnesota generally is considered safe for the Dems, I believe it is in play and the GOP has a credible chance to flip it.