Tag: immigration

MLLG

Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

George Noga

The gates are down and the lights are flashing but there is no train coming.

Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

By: George Noga – July 10, 2022

I published a special posting on January 1, 2022, (read it at www.mllg.us) warning that this year would bring unprecedented geopolitical, economic, political and financial horrors. Never before in 15 years and 600 posts did I make any such forecasts. Rarely in human affairs have predictions come true so quickly, accurately and completely.

Geopolitical Horrors

I predicted that if Putin intended to invade Ukraine, it would be in 2022; Putin invaded in February. I wrote Putin and Xi would form an entente; they issued a statement stating, “their friendship has no limits“. I said Iran would race toward a nuclear weapon and threaten its neighbors; they have enriched uranium to weapons grade and threaten Saudi Arabia. I predicted North Korea would act up; they have resumed test firing ICBMs, threatening Japan and even the USA, and testing nuclear weapons. I wrote if Xi intended to invade Taiwan, it would be this year. I now assess this as less likely due to the unexpectedly robust global opposition to Putin’s Ukraine invasion.

Economic Horrors

I forecasted inflation would exceed 10%. The Producer Price Index is up 11% and other indices are up 8.6%. The real rate of inflation is 15% if computed on the same basis as the last time the US had high inflation. I predicted the Fed would surge interest rates leading to a recession. The Fed is now increasing rates three-quarters of a point at a time just as I predicted. They are doing too little too late. The economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter. Throughout US history when this has occurred, there is a 94% chance of a recession. The United States likely is already mired in a recession.

Per Barack Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

On the economic front, the worst is yet to come. I expect inflation to remain stubbornly high and intractable. The Fed will be forced to raise rates much more than they now contemplate. There will be a prolonged period of stagflation, i.e. inflation combined with stagnation. Ultimately, getting control over inflation will result in a severe recession. The recession, in turn, will lead to out-of-control spending and deficits in a futile attempt by Biden and the Democrats to salvage their tattered political prospects.

Political Horrors

In January I predicted a Biden horror show. The ineptitude of his Administration has exceeded my worst fears. They have hit rock bottom (and are still digging) on every issue: inflation, immigration, energy, supply chain, pandemic, crime and foreign affairs. Identity politics has resulted in widespread incompetence. The following were selected based solely on identity: Harris, Austin, Yellen, Buttigieg, Raimondo, Becerra, Granholm, Cardona, Mayorkas and a slew of lesser lights. Sadly, the gates are down; the lights are flashing; the whistle is blowing, but there is no train coming.

Financial and Investment Horrors

I wrote that in December 2021 I moved my investments into a highly defensive posture with over 70% in cash, cash equivalents and ultra-short duration bonds. I also doubled my holdings of gold, commodities and TIPs. Thus far, the NASDAQ is down over 30% and the S&P 500 over 20%. Commodities are up 30%, but gold is up only slightly due to the strength of the dollar and higher interest rates. The markets are not likely to hit bottom until 2023 or even 2024, but the worst is yet to come. In the immortal words of Barack Hussein Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

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Next on July 10th: Soaking the rich and fat cat corporations.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us

Special Posting: Birthright Citizenship

George Noga

You are being told that children of illegal aliens, who are born in the USA, become citizens automatically and that this is ordained by the Constitution.  Neither is true!

By: George Noga – November 2, 2018

       This is a special unplanned posting. Suddenly, the issue of birthright citizenship has been thrust into the national spotlight and the media (surprise) have it all wrong. We first wrote about this seven years ago. What follows is not political or partisan, but simply a logical, fact-based and principled assessment of birthright citizenship.

       You likely have heard that children of illegal aliens, born within the USA, ipso facto are US citizens and that is explicitly ordained by the Constitution. Neither proposition is true! The 1789 Constitution did not define citizenship; however, the 14th Amendment ratified in 1868 states, “all persons born in the US and subject to its jurisdiction” are citizens. The purpose was to grant citizenship to former slaves in the aftermath of the civil war. Being born in the USA is only one of two conditions.

If the intent of the 14th Amendment was that everyone born in the USA is a citizen, then why was the conjunctive “and subject to its jurisdiction” added?

       Those five words, and subject to its jurisdiction, is where all the controversy lies. At the time (1868) it was generally understood to mean full political allegiance. That’s why Indians were excluded – because it was assumed they owed allegiance to their tribes. However,  Section 5 of the 14th Amendment gives Congress power to “enforce by appropriate legislation” provisions of the amendment. Congress subsequently has done so, giving Indians and other explicit categories citizenship. But Congress never has given citizenship to children of illegal aliens or to everyone born in the USA.

      There have been Supreme Court cases on topic. Proponents always cite U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark (1898) (decided 5-4) as a source of birthright citizenship. However, in that case, the court held only that children of legal permanent residents automatically were entitled to citizenship. The court never has opined on children of illegal aliens.

Four Takeaways About Birthright Citizenship

1. A constitutional amendment is not required to address birthright citizenship. Congress has this power under Section 5 of the 14th Amendment and could pass a law either granting or denying citizenship to children of illegal aliens born in the USA.

2. There is nothing in the Constitution, laws passed by Congress or cases decided in the Supreme Court that grant birthright citizenship to children of illegal aliens.

3. Because of the lack of legislative or judicial clarity directly on point, an executive order by the President of the US is entirely appropriate. Such an order could instruct the executive branch how to deal with children of illegal aliens – including instructing them not to confer birthright citizenship unless mandated by Congress or the courts.

4. Ultimately, this matter will wind up in the Supreme Court – whether as a result of an executive order or a law enacted by Congress and signed by the President.

      No European or western country grants citizenship based on place of birth. Nearly every country on earth bases citizenship on blood rather than on soil, i.e  on parental citizenship – not on place of birth. Ideally, Congress should settle this question as one part of comprehensive immigration reform legislation. Good luck with that!

Watch for our special pre-election posting on Election Day – November 6th.
Our next post November 6th offers perspective about the midterm election.

 

Special Posting: Birthright Citizenship
By: George Noga – November 2, 2018