Nothing Is Written

“God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”

GEORGE NOGA
March 10, 2024

The above quote from Otto von Bismarck rings true. Throughout our history the USA has been lucky. Our good fortune began with the success of the American Revolution. There are at least thirteen events¹ that, if had they turned out differently, would have led to defeat and to George Washington likely being hanged.

The early history of Western civilization is replete with close encounters² that shaped our lives, often by pure chance and blind luck. Following are but a few of them.

Had Atilla not died young in 453, you would be reading this in Hungarian.
If the outmanned French would have lost the battle of Poitiers in 732 to the Arabs, we all would be speaking Arabic today.
In 1242 the Mongols were within a hair’s breadth of conquering Europe when King Ogadi (son of Genghis Khan) died suddenly prompting the Mongols to turn around. Europe was saved by blind luck so we are not speaking Mongolian.

There also have been numerous what ifs just in the past century. If not for pure chance and a roll of the dice, we could be much better off or worse off today.

If Archduke Ferdinand had survived his assassination on June 28, 1914, World War I would not have happened.³ Absent the utter slaughter and horror of that war, the West would not have lost faith in itself, its culture and its religion. There would have been no Lenin, Stalin or Hitler – and no holocaust.

World War II is pregnant with what ifs. What if Hitler had not inexplicably paused his armies near Dunkirk and instead wiped out the entire English army? What if he would not have invaded Russia? What if he would have committed his air force to destroy the RAF instead of bombing cities? What if Halifax instead of Churchill became prime minister? What if the Enigma code was not broken? What if all the American carriers were in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941?

Events are Chaotic and Random

Nothing about our lives in twenty-first century America is preordained. There are many forces in play and the myriad possible interactions are so complex that even infinitesimal variations can alter events and unleash powerful and unanticipated forces. Moreover, history is not necessarily directed toward a more prosperous and peaceful world. There are countless possibilities, most of which never materialize.

We humans tend to vastly overweight recent events and to believe things had to turn out the way they did. Americans in particular suffer from this affliction because America has been blessed with good fortune during most of its existence – thus, Bismarck’s statement “God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”.

Human nature is unchanged since we lived in trees; it is part animal spirits and part rational, with the rational, usually but not always, having a tenuous grip over the passionate. Nothing is preordained; nothing is written. It is not written that America will continue to be peaceful and prosperous. It is not written that good will triumph over evil. Fukuyama’s long arc of history may bend in the right direction, but there is ample room for terror and slaughter along the way.

Future History of America

As noted supra, history is chaotic, unpredictable and often hinges on pure chance. There are unknowns and unknowables; animal spirits sometimes trump logic. Following are some possible future scenarios and their possible outcomes.

A spending crisis is a certainty, but how will it end? Will America default on its debt or print money leading to hyperinflation? Will America be too broke to defend its interests and values as bad actors come to dominate the world?
What will happen with China? Will its empire break apart; will there be a democratic revolution; or will it become a global hegemon – occupying Taiwan and imposing its will throughout the Pacific and cowing the United States?
What happens after Iran gets atomic weapons? Will it destroy Israel and Saudi Arabia or will its people rise up and replace the present theocratic regime?
What will become of America? Will it become a post-constitutional state where progressives rig the electoral system to eliminate opposition? Or will America again become a land of liberty with equal justice under law?
How does Ukraine end? Will Putin win and go on to threaten Moldova and the Baltic states? Will NATO be dragged into war or succumb to nuclear blackmail?
What if China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua formed an alliance and attacked simultaneously around the world?
What will happen to civilization on this orb? Will we be able to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle or will we destroy everything and return to the stone age? Or will we come to our senses and usher in a golden age for humanity?
What unforeseen or unforeseeable threats or opportunities may arise?

Nothing is written.

Unlikely Victory by Thomas Fleming
What If edited by Robert Cowley
The World We Lost on June 28, 1914 by Gary North

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

By: George Noga – September 10, 2014

This posting marks the beginning of the end. Between now and mid-December I will publish the final MLLG posts. I often have been asked why I have taken the trouble. Why have I spent 1,000 hours writing 300 posts filling 900 pages containing 500,000 words since November 2007? Why have I written fact-based and principled tracts about public policy even though I am unenamored with politics and politicians? This post answers the question: why. In the Federalist, Alexander Hamilton questioned and challenged his fellow Americans thusly:

“Whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend on accident and force.”

If any society of men fails to get its politics right, it affects every aspect of life and life itself. Get politics right and we live our lives in freedom, prosperity and pursuit of our dreams. Get politics wrong and liberty, happiness and property are forfeit and life itself is nasty, brutal and brief. Politics, grubby as it is, is the sine qua non to having a life worth living.

Examples abound of those who got their politics wrong: Hitler’s Germany, Mussolini’s Italy, Imperial Japan, Mao’s China, Pol Pot’s Cambodia and Stalin’s USSR were all black holes where life and liberty were trampled. Today we have,inter alia, Putin’s Russia, the Jongs’ North Korea, the Castro brothers’ Cuba and Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. And don’t forget the entire Arab world, nearly all of Central and South America, Africa and any place ending in “stan”.

If you believe the western world is exempt, think again. WWI was a senseless slaughter with 40 million casualties; its politically inept conclusion led to WWII with its 150 million casualties. This was due to a failure of politics in Europe and also in the USA. In the past century and continuing to the present, “civilized” Europe has experienced 100 genocides, pogroms and ethnic cleansings. Vietnam was a colossal failure of American politics to get it right; it cost 58,220 American lives and 303,644 more wounded. Nor have we learned; we continue to get it wrong right up to this day.

If we don’t get our politics right, our children and our children’s children will live in an Orwellian torpor with their lives, liberty and property constantly at risk because of obeisance to failed ideologies, fantasies, vote buying, political correctness and the never ending and fruitless search for Utopias. Politics is inherently personal. Following are but some of the ways I have been directly harmed throughout my life by our failure to get politics right.

I had no father at home for 4 years during WWII which resulted from government ineptitude in fighting and ending WWI. Father was in Korea, also the result of political blunder, for another year during my childhood.
I received an execrable, pathetic non education in government schools from age 5 to 18.
The Federal Reserve created economic conditions that resulted in severe cycles, bubbles, panics, meltdowns and deep recessions throughout my life continuing to the present.
I was subject to income taxes of over 90%, creating perverse, uneconomic incentives.
It now requires $15,000 to buy what cost $1,000 when I was born due to government currency debasement.
Regulation run amok made owning my business onerous. The regulations, all in the guise of protecting consumers, in actuality, caused them (and me) great harm.
The politically micromanaged Vietnam War disrupted my life for the 6 years I served in the military.
The Fed has brutally devalued a lifetime of hard work via chronic negative real interest rates intended to protect a feckless government from the consequences of its ongoing debt binge.
A torpid, Europesque economy has been imposed, dooming me to economic stagnation instead of robust growth.
The current crisis of spending, debt and deficits ultimately will result in a lost generation.
Our government has recklessly created and/or exacerbated dangerous situations throughout the world by weakening our military and appeasing tyrants. An existential crisis likely will result.
Obamacare death panels will ration and deny medical care and ultimately could kill me.

Due entirely to failed politics I was fatherless for five years and lucky I wasn’t orphaned into a life of poverty. I survived utterly wretched government schools, incessant and severe economic cycles, debilitating inflation, astronomical tax rates and hyper regulation. Vietnam discombobulated my life. And all this was because of a government most consider one of the best extant. And all because we failed to get our politics right.

Now, in my eighth decade of life, our once vibrant economy is riven by government-created anemia. America has transmogrified into sclerotic Europe where men lead lives of quiet desperation. Government has created a crisis of spending, debt and deficits, one consequence being sustained negative real interest rates that savage my decades of prudence. My final indignity is Obamacare; its rationing and death panels may end my life prematurely.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with me. Our children and our children’s children are doomed to a much poorer and more dangerous future; they will be a lost generation. They will pay for our debt binge and generational theft with vastly reduced opportunity. They will inhabit a Clockwork Orange world where nuclear arms proliferate in places committed to our destruction and solely because we weakened our defense and kowtowed to tyrants. Our weakness invites terror and slaughter for which they will pay dearly, perhaps with their lives. And all this from a government most consider one of the best extant. And all because we failed to get our politics right.

“The correct answer to Alexander Hamilton’s question may be in the negative.”

As you can see, if we don’t get our politics right, our lives are vastly diminished and trivialized in countless ways; we condemn our progeny to economic stagnation and loss of freedom. Their lives and liberty are at grave risk because we failed to get our politics right. It appears the correct answer to Alexander Hamilton’s question may be in the negative.

I have tried mightily through this blog to show that the answer lies in more liberty and less government. Hopefully, my efforts have given our children’s children that infinitesimally better chance for liberty. And that is my answer to the question: why I write this blog.

Note to readers: I am striving to make the final postings between now and mid-December special as I seek to end my MLLG blog on a high note. I hope you enjoy them.

Tag: Hitler