Tag: Foreign Affairs

MLLG

Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

George Noga

The gates are down and the lights are flashing but there is no train coming.

Annus Horribilis at the Midway Mark

By: George Noga – July 10, 2022

I published a special posting on January 1, 2022, (read it at www.mllg.us) warning that this year would bring unprecedented geopolitical, economic, political and financial horrors. Never before in 15 years and 600 posts did I make any such forecasts. Rarely in human affairs have predictions come true so quickly, accurately and completely.

Geopolitical Horrors

I predicted that if Putin intended to invade Ukraine, it would be in 2022; Putin invaded in February. I wrote Putin and Xi would form an entente; they issued a statement stating, “their friendship has no limits“. I said Iran would race toward a nuclear weapon and threaten its neighbors; they have enriched uranium to weapons grade and threaten Saudi Arabia. I predicted North Korea would act up; they have resumed test firing ICBMs, threatening Japan and even the USA, and testing nuclear weapons. I wrote if Xi intended to invade Taiwan, it would be this year. I now assess this as less likely due to the unexpectedly robust global opposition to Putin’s Ukraine invasion.

Economic Horrors

I forecasted inflation would exceed 10%. The Producer Price Index is up 11% and other indices are up 8.6%. The real rate of inflation is 15% if computed on the same basis as the last time the US had high inflation. I predicted the Fed would surge interest rates leading to a recession. The Fed is now increasing rates three-quarters of a point at a time just as I predicted. They are doing too little too late. The economy shrank by 1.5% in the first quarter. Throughout US history when this has occurred, there is a 94% chance of a recession. The United States likely is already mired in a recession.

Per Barack Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

On the economic front, the worst is yet to come. I expect inflation to remain stubbornly high and intractable. The Fed will be forced to raise rates much more than they now contemplate. There will be a prolonged period of stagflation, i.e. inflation combined with stagnation. Ultimately, getting control over inflation will result in a severe recession. The recession, in turn, will lead to out-of-control spending and deficits in a futile attempt by Biden and the Democrats to salvage their tattered political prospects.

Political Horrors

In January I predicted a Biden horror show. The ineptitude of his Administration has exceeded my worst fears. They have hit rock bottom (and are still digging) on every issue: inflation, immigration, energy, supply chain, pandemic, crime and foreign affairs. Identity politics has resulted in widespread incompetence. The following were selected based solely on identity: Harris, Austin, Yellen, Buttigieg, Raimondo, Becerra, Granholm, Cardona, Mayorkas and a slew of lesser lights. Sadly, the gates are down; the lights are flashing; the whistle is blowing, but there is no train coming.

Financial and Investment Horrors

I wrote that in December 2021 I moved my investments into a highly defensive posture with over 70% in cash, cash equivalents and ultra-short duration bonds. I also doubled my holdings of gold, commodities and TIPs. Thus far, the NASDAQ is down over 30% and the S&P 500 over 20%. Commodities are up 30%, but gold is up only slightly due to the strength of the dollar and higher interest rates. The markets are not likely to hit bottom until 2023 or even 2024, but the worst is yet to come. In the immortal words of Barack Hussein Obama “elections have consequences“. Indeed they do!

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Next on July 10th: Soaking the rich and fat cat corporations.
More Liberty Less Government – mllg@cfl.rr.com – www.mllg.us
MLLG

MLLG State of the Union Address

George Noga
By: George Noga – October 1, 2014
      My fellow Americans: I begin with first principles. Governments are instituted among men to protect their rights which include life, liberty, property and the pursuit of happiness. Indeed, this is the only legitimate purpose for government. Experience has shown that legally sanctioned force, i.e. government is necessary to secure our rights including defense against foreign threats, protection from domestic violence and enforcement of contracts. Government therefore is a necessary, albeit evil, force that must be tightly controlled and used only for the carefully circumscribed purposes noted supra and then only to the absolute minimum extent necessary.
      All of human experience demonstrates free people, free trade and free markets result in the greatest prosperity for all. Government is inherently coercive; it is not about logic, reason or persuasion; it is about brute force including the threat of force. In contrast, civil society is always voluntary and cooperative. No company, no matter how big or powerful, can compel you to buy its product or service. A consumer armed with a free choice is the most powerful force on earth.

     The principles identified supra lead to twelve major initiatives I now announce. There is much more to be done; however, this is where we must begin to restore our Constitutional Republic.

  1. The Constitutional Box: We are a government of laws and not men. The identity of those who hold executive, legislative or judicial offices should be of little consequence to citizens provided they act within the confines of the Constitution, i.e. stay inside the Constitutional box. This means shrinking government to its core responsibility of securing our rights and, to a very limited extent, providing infrastructure. Accordingly, we will scale the federal government back to 15% of GDP, a level which empirically is demonstrated to result in the maximum rate of economic growth and hence the maximum well-being for all our citizens.
  2. Free Trade: Wealth and prosperity are created by trade among peoples. Traders take substantial risks and can accrue riches; however, their wealth ultimately depends on improving the lives of their customers. If they fail to make you better off, they do not prosper. Free and unfettered trade is universally good – always and everywhere. For that reason I announce the United States unilaterally will eliminate all tariffs and trade barriers – even if other countries do not reciprocate. We will be better off for that action and those who do not follow will be worse off.
  3. Sound Money: The Federal Reserve will have one mission only: to maintain sound money. This means purchasing power will be maintained, inflation eliminated, and increases in the money supply subject to strict constraints. The Fed will be audited regularly and we will take a hard look at reestablishing a gold standard.
  4. Taxation: As we scale government back to 15% of GDP, taxes can be slashed. I am asking for repeal of the 16th amendment to eliminate the income tax. We also will eliminate the death tax and Social Security/Medicare payroll taxes. These will be replaced by  a consumption tax at the lowest rate possible – likely in a single digit. The 60% of Americans who currently pay no income tax (net of credits) will begin to enjoy the dignity that comes with being a taxpayer. Moreover, they will have a personal stake in controlling spending and holding taxes to the absolute minimum. The crisis of spending, debt and deficits will end instantaneously.
  5. Defense and Foreign Affairs: We will follow the admonition of President John Quincy Adams that “America is a friend of freedom everywhere, but a custodian only of our own.” Simultaneously, we will observe George Washington’s advice  that “The best way to keep the peace is to be prepared for war.” We will strengthen and then consistently maintain the military for the long term at such a high level as to deter any possibly adversary.
  6. War on Drugs: The war on drugs is over. As we learned with prohibition, the drug war is unwinnable and never should have been fought. Henceforth, all drugs will be legal but regulated, taxed and discouraged just as with tobacco. Drug taxes collected will go solely for rehabilitation of those who continue to abuse them. We immediately will realize benefits including: (a) releasing non-violent drug offenders; (b) ending drug related crime; (c) putting drug cartels out of business; (d) reducing police corruption; (e) refocusing our foreign policy; (f) ensuring safety of drugs; and (g) eliminating drug dealers as role models.
  7. Regulation: All regulations will automatically sunset ratably every 10 years. Congress must enact any that need to be replaced. Any regulations promulgated by bureaucrats that have an economic impact of over $25 million must be voted on and approved by Congress before taking effect.
  8. Role of Juries: Henceforth, defendants (and their attorneys) will have the right to explain to juries that juries are sovereign and, as intended by our nation’s founders, have the final say about the legality and enforcement of all laws. The grand jury system will be reformed to stop prosecutorial abuse and to allow citizen grand juries.
  9. War on Poverty: The war on poverty is finished. The percentage of Americans who, by their own reports, lack a healthy level of food, shelter, clothing or medical care is 2%-3%. This cohort is identical to the 2% to 3% of Americans with very low mental acuity, i.e. those who struggle to fill out a simple form. We will therefore refocus our attention and also our solutions to better deal with the real problem. Even though the percentage in poverty is low, it still equates to 7-8 million of our countrymen to whom we pledge a strong safety net.
  10. Entitlements: Obamacare is to be repealed and replaced with free market solutions. Entitlements  will be placed on budget. Social Security gradually and voluntarily will be privatized. In the interim, benefits will be maintained by changing indexing and lengthening eligibility ages. Medicare benefits will be maintained by gradually lengthening eligibility ages and changing to a premium support model; also, medical costs will moderate given real prices.  Medicaid will be block granted to the states to administer as they see fit without interference.
  11. Energy/Climate: The Keystone Pipeline will be built and natural gas exported. We will drill and frack in ANWR, offshore and on federal lands – all ASAP. Our national delusion about manmade global warming  is over. Warming is a solar phenomenon to which man’s contribution is minimal. We will continue to develop alternative fuels for the future while eliminating subsidies for wind, solar and biofuels. The EPA’s mission will be refocused.
  12. Education: School choice is the civil rights issue of our time. We will move with all deliberate speed to universal school vouchers. We will bring education into the 21st century with technology and by furthering alternatives such as online and home schooling and by creating entirely new paradigms.
          Thank you and may God bless the United States of America.