Nothing Is Written

March 10, 2024April 7, 2024 George Noga

Nothing Is Written

“God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”

GEORGE NOGA
March 10, 2024

The above quote from Otto von Bismarck rings true. Throughout our history the USA has been lucky. Our good fortune began with the success of the American Revolution. There are at least thirteen events¹ that, if had they turned out differently, would have led to defeat and to George Washington likely being hanged.

The early history of Western civilization is replete with close encounters² that shaped our lives, often by pure chance and blind luck. Following are but a few of them.

Had Atilla not died young in 453, you would be reading this in Hungarian.
If the outmanned French would have lost the battle of Poitiers in 732 to the Arabs, we all would be speaking Arabic today.
In 1242 the Mongols were within a hair’s breadth of conquering Europe when King Ogadi (son of Genghis Khan) died suddenly prompting the Mongols to turn around. Europe was saved by blind luck so we are not speaking Mongolian.

There also have been numerous what ifs just in the past century. If not for pure chance and a roll of the dice, we could be much better off or worse off today.

If Archduke Ferdinand had survived his assassination on June 28, 1914, World War I would not have happened.³ Absent the utter slaughter and horror of that war, the West would not have lost faith in itself, its culture and its religion. There would have been no Lenin, Stalin or Hitler – and no holocaust.

World War II is pregnant with what ifs. What if Hitler had not inexplicably paused his armies near Dunkirk and instead wiped out the entire English army? What if he would not have invaded Russia? What if he would have committed his air force to destroy the RAF instead of bombing cities? What if Halifax instead of Churchill became prime minister? What if the Enigma code was not broken? What if all the American carriers were in Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941?

Events are Chaotic and Random

Nothing about our lives in twenty-first century America is preordained. There are many forces in play and the myriad possible interactions are so complex that even infinitesimal variations can alter events and unleash powerful and unanticipated forces. Moreover, history is not necessarily directed toward a more prosperous and peaceful world. There are countless possibilities, most of which never materialize.

We humans tend to vastly overweight recent events and to believe things had to turn out the way they did. Americans in particular suffer from this affliction because America has been blessed with good fortune during most of its existence – thus, Bismarck’s statement “God loves fools, drunks and the United States of America”.

Human nature is unchanged since we lived in trees; it is part animal spirits and part rational, with the rational, usually but not always, having a tenuous grip over the passionate. Nothing is preordained; nothing is written. It is not written that America will continue to be peaceful and prosperous. It is not written that good will triumph over evil. Fukuyama’s long arc of history may bend in the right direction, but there is ample room for terror and slaughter along the way.

Future History of America

As noted supra, history is chaotic, unpredictable and often hinges on pure chance. There are unknowns and unknowables; animal spirits sometimes trump logic. Following are some possible future scenarios and their possible outcomes.

A spending crisis is a certainty, but how will it end? Will America default on its debt or print money leading to hyperinflation? Will America be too broke to defend its interests and values as bad actors come to dominate the world?
What will happen with China? Will its empire break apart; will there be a democratic revolution; or will it become a global hegemon – occupying Taiwan and imposing its will throughout the Pacific and cowing the United States?
What happens after Iran gets atomic weapons? Will it destroy Israel and Saudi Arabia or will its people rise up and replace the present theocratic regime?
What will become of America? Will it become a post-constitutional state where progressives rig the electoral system to eliminate opposition? Or will America again become a land of liberty with equal justice under law?
How does Ukraine end? Will Putin win and go on to threaten Moldova and the Baltic states? Will NATO be dragged into war or succumb to nuclear blackmail?
What if China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua formed an alliance and attacked simultaneously around the world?
What will happen to civilization on this orb? Will we be able to keep the nuclear genie in the bottle or will we destroy everything and return to the stone age? Or will we come to our senses and usher in a golden age for humanity?
What unforeseen or unforeseeable threats or opportunities may arise?

Nothing is written.

Unlikely Victory by Thomas Fleming
What If edited by Robert Cowley
The World We Lost on June 28, 1914 by Gary North

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Tale of Two Islands

May 14, 2023May 21, 2023 George Noga

Both had revolutions in 1959
GEORGE NOGA – MAY 14, 2023

I continually search for new ways to highlight the blessings of liberty (both political and economic) and the evils of collectivism in all its many manifestations. Nothing puts this into as sharp relief as the Tale of Two Islands from 1959 to 2023.

Revolutions occurred on two islands in 1959. Both countries were mountainous, less than 25% arable and relied on sugar exports. Both faced large, powerful and hostile enemies, separated by less than 100 miles of ocean. In both cases, their enemies cut off diplomatic and economic relations and threatened military invasions. However, one of the island nations was way ahead of the other in terms of health, education, income and nearly all other metrics of national well-being.

The country you likely are familiar with is Cuba, which in 1959 had nominal GDP of $2.0 billion and a population of 7 million, resulting in per capita GDP of $286. In 1959 the communist revolution led by Castro took over and abolished both political and economic freedom. Prior to its revolution, Cuba was far more prosperous than the other island; its GDP per capita was double that of the other island.

The second island nation is Taiwan. In 1959 its nominal GDP was $1.6 billion and its population 11 million, equating to per capita GDP of $145. In 1959 Taiwan underwent an economic revolution, adopting capitalism and a market economy. In the early 1970s Taiwan also had a political revolution – becoming a liberal democracy.

Fast forward to 2023. Cuba has GDP of $110 billion, a population of 11.3 million and (nominal) per capita GDP of $9,700, ranking 75th in the world. Out of 176 countries ranked, Cuba’s index of economic freedom ranks 175th in the world; only North Korea is worse. Taiwan has GDP of $900 billion and a population of 24 million for per capita GDP of $37,500 placing it 30th highest in the world. Its freedom index is 4th best in the world, much higher even than the USA which ranks 25th.

This tale of two islands illustrates the differences between freedom and capitalism versus tyranny and collectivism. Moreover, the GDP data for Cuba are suspect and Cuba’s true rank is likely one of the lowest in the world. Take home pay, according to most sources, is less than $100 per month. Cuba remains a brutal dictatorship filled with political prisons that engage in torture. Even its vaunted health care system is a failure. Cuban doctors botched Fidel’s treatment and doctors from Spain had to be flown in. Infant mortality is the worst in Latin America and is based on forced abortion of risky pregnancies and on not counting underweight births.

In 1959 Cuba’s per capita GDP was twice Taiwan’s; now it is 4 times lower, a swing of 800% – and the real data are far worse. But numbers alone do not tell the full story. The juxtaposition of Cuba and Taiwan from 1959 to the present is one of freedom versus repression, prosperity versus stagnation and hope versus desperation. Cuba today is a nihilistic society where 35% of pregnancies are aborted. It reveals the depth and breadth of the human and economic disaster wrought by collectivism.

Che Guevara may continue to adorn the tee shirts of clueless youth. Useful idiots, in and out of the media, may continue to offer encomia; but the Cuban people, when the regime finally crumbles, will render final judgment. Castro statues will be felled, murals will be defaced and the truth about the incalculable poverty and suffering of the Cuban people will be outed.

© 2023 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Legacy of Fidel Castro

January 8, 2017January 8, 2017 George Noga

A preview of this blog for 2017 and also Fidel Castro’s Legacy for Cuba

The Legacy of Fidel Castro

2017 Preview of the MLLG Blog

By: George Noga – January 8, 2017

Before we get to Cuba, I must attend to some MLLG business. I hope you enjoyed the new MLLG blog throughout the past year. We are continuing the blog in 2017; hence, I now must ask for contributions from readers to help with our costs which are not inconsequential. I hope that this will be the only time I make such a request.

All support goes 100% for expenses; any help, even a small amount, is appreciated. Please mail your check to MLLG at: P. O. Box 916381, Longwood, FL 32791-6381. To save time and money, I no longer maintain a separate MLLG legal entity; therefore your check, to be negotiable, must be made payable to “George Noga“. Thanks to all of you for reading, forwarding to others and for all your support since we began in 2007.

I am excited about upcoming posts. Next week we present a postmortem of the 2016 election; this is followed by a special edition on Inauguration Day (January 20) which is a not-to-be-missed retrospective of the Obama presidency. Other upcoming topics include: Kitty Genovese and the Democrats, nullification, the war on blacks, the ninth amendment, more on climate change and MLLG commencement addresses for both high school and college. With the election now over, 2017 will contain more posts about economic, tax, human interest, environmental and cultural issues.

Fidel Castro’s Legacy

In 1959 revolutions took place in two countries, both on small, subtropical islands governed by dictators. Both countries were mountainous, less than 25% arable and both relied on sugar exports. Also in both cases, there were giant hostile mainland nations just a few miles away that cut off all diplomatic and economic relations and threatened military invasion. However, one of the nations was much more prosperous than the other one and well ahead in terms of health, education and income.

One of the two nations was Cuba and in 1959 it was the more prosperous. Today its economy has failed; its per capita GDP is $5,500, but the take home pay of most Cubans is $30 per month. It remains a brutal dictatorship filled with political prisons that practice torture. Its GDP per capita ranks 137 in the world and its freedom index ranks 171. One-third of all pregnancies are aborted and it is a nihilistic society.

Even Cuba’s vaunted health care system is a failure. Cuban doctors botched Fidel’s treatment in 2006; specialists from Spain flew in to save his life. Infant mortality, once claimed to be ultra low, is based on lies. Cuban data are based on forced abortions for any pregnancy considered risky and they do not count infant deaths from underweight births. Cuba’s infant mortality is worse than elsewhere in Latin America. Most Cuban doctors are sent abroad to earn hard currency to keep the regime from utter failure.

You may be surprised that the second country referred to is Taiwan. Dirt poor and under military dictatorship in 1959, it became a vibrant democracy and a capitalist economic tiger. Today Taiwan’s economy ranks 21 in the world with per capita GDP of $40,000. It ranks 26 on the index of human freedom. Cuba was ahead of Taiwan in 1959 in nearly every metric of human and economic well being. The juxtaposition of Cuba and Taiwan between 1959 and today reveals the true human and economic disaster that is the eternal legacy of Fidel Castro to the remaining people of Cuba.

Castro and Che may continue to adorn tee shirts of clueless youth. Useful idiots, in and out of the media, may offer encomia, but the people of Cuba, when the regime inevitably falls, will render final judgment. Castro statues will be felled, murals defaced and the truth outed – that Fidel was a hypocritical, despotic, murderous megalomaniac who inflicted incalculable poverty and suffering on the people of Cuba.

Our next post January 15th presents a postmortem on the 2016 election.

Why I Write This Blog?

September 10, 2014January 28, 2016 George Noga

By: George Noga – September 10, 2014

This posting marks the beginning of the end. Between now and mid-December I will publish the final MLLG posts. I often have been asked why I have taken the trouble. Why have I spent 1,000 hours writing 300 posts filling 900 pages containing 500,000 words since November 2007? Why have I written fact-based and principled tracts about public policy even though I am unenamored with politics and politicians? This post answers the question: why. In the Federalist, Alexander Hamilton questioned and challenged his fellow Americans thusly:

“Whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend on accident and force.”

If any society of men fails to get its politics right, it affects every aspect of life and life itself. Get politics right and we live our lives in freedom, prosperity and pursuit of our dreams. Get politics wrong and liberty, happiness and property are forfeit and life itself is nasty, brutal and brief. Politics, grubby as it is, is the sine qua non to having a life worth living.

Examples abound of those who got their politics wrong: Hitler’s Germany, Mussolini’s Italy, Imperial Japan, Mao’s China, Pol Pot’s Cambodia and Stalin’s USSR were all black holes where life and liberty were trampled. Today we have,inter alia, Putin’s Russia, the Jongs’ North Korea, the Castro brothers’ Cuba and Mugabe’s Zimbabwe. And don’t forget the entire Arab world, nearly all of Central and South America, Africa and any place ending in “stan”.

If you believe the western world is exempt, think again. WWI was a senseless slaughter with 40 million casualties; its politically inept conclusion led to WWII with its 150 million casualties. This was due to a failure of politics in Europe and also in the USA. In the past century and continuing to the present, “civilized” Europe has experienced 100 genocides, pogroms and ethnic cleansings. Vietnam was a colossal failure of American politics to get it right; it cost 58,220 American lives and 303,644 more wounded. Nor have we learned; we continue to get it wrong right up to this day.

If we don’t get our politics right, our children and our children’s children will live in an Orwellian torpor with their lives, liberty and property constantly at risk because of obeisance to failed ideologies, fantasies, vote buying, political correctness and the never ending and fruitless search for Utopias. Politics is inherently personal. Following are but some of the ways I have been directly harmed throughout my life by our failure to get politics right.

I had no father at home for 4 years during WWII which resulted from government ineptitude in fighting and ending WWI. Father was in Korea, also the result of political blunder, for another year during my childhood.
I received an execrable, pathetic non education in government schools from age 5 to 18.
The Federal Reserve created economic conditions that resulted in severe cycles, bubbles, panics, meltdowns and deep recessions throughout my life continuing to the present.
I was subject to income taxes of over 90%, creating perverse, uneconomic incentives.
It now requires $15,000 to buy what cost $1,000 when I was born due to government currency debasement.
Regulation run amok made owning my business onerous. The regulations, all in the guise of protecting consumers, in actuality, caused them (and me) great harm.
The politically micromanaged Vietnam War disrupted my life for the 6 years I served in the military.
The Fed has brutally devalued a lifetime of hard work via chronic negative real interest rates intended to protect a feckless government from the consequences of its ongoing debt binge.
A torpid, Europesque economy has been imposed, dooming me to economic stagnation instead of robust growth.
The current crisis of spending, debt and deficits ultimately will result in a lost generation.
Our government has recklessly created and/or exacerbated dangerous situations throughout the world by weakening our military and appeasing tyrants. An existential crisis likely will result.
Obamacare death panels will ration and deny medical care and ultimately could kill me.

Due entirely to failed politics I was fatherless for five years and lucky I wasn’t orphaned into a life of poverty. I survived utterly wretched government schools, incessant and severe economic cycles, debilitating inflation, astronomical tax rates and hyper regulation. Vietnam discombobulated my life. And all this was because of a government most consider one of the best extant. And all because we failed to get our politics right.

Now, in my eighth decade of life, our once vibrant economy is riven by government-created anemia. America has transmogrified into sclerotic Europe where men lead lives of quiet desperation. Government has created a crisis of spending, debt and deficits, one consequence being sustained negative real interest rates that savage my decades of prudence. My final indignity is Obamacare; its rationing and death panels may end my life prematurely.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with me. Our children and our children’s children are doomed to a much poorer and more dangerous future; they will be a lost generation. They will pay for our debt binge and generational theft with vastly reduced opportunity. They will inhabit a Clockwork Orange world where nuclear arms proliferate in places committed to our destruction and solely because we weakened our defense and kowtowed to tyrants. Our weakness invites terror and slaughter for which they will pay dearly, perhaps with their lives. And all this from a government most consider one of the best extant. And all because we failed to get our politics right.

“The correct answer to Alexander Hamilton’s question may be in the negative.”

As you can see, if we don’t get our politics right, our lives are vastly diminished and trivialized in countless ways; we condemn our progeny to economic stagnation and loss of freedom. Their lives and liberty are at grave risk because we failed to get our politics right. It appears the correct answer to Alexander Hamilton’s question may be in the negative.

I have tried mightily through this blog to show that the answer lies in more liberty and less government. Hopefully, my efforts have given our children’s children that infinitesimally better chance for liberty. And that is my answer to the question: why I write this blog.

Note to readers: I am striving to make the final postings between now and mid-December special as I seek to end my MLLG blog on a high note. I hope you enjoy them.