A new and insidious peril has arisen, i.e. pollsters have become woke.
Red Wave Across America . . .
Fearless Forecast for the Election
By: George Noga – November 6, 2022
Longtime readers know I have a lengthy record of getting elections right, not just the outcome, but the underlying electoral forces shaping the election. Recent subscribers to this blog may go to my website at www.mllg.us to view my bio, which includes nearly 60 years of political experience and observation at all levels of government.
Elections in Other Countries
I place significant weight on recent elections in other countries. Although the issues and candidates differ, there are enough similarities to make this a meaningful guide. The best example is Brexit. When the UK voted for Brexit in 2016, it foretold Hillary Clinton’s defeat. Voters in Northern England and the Midlands are no different than voters in Michigan and Wisconsin – they all want economic and cultural security.
The 2021 elections in Virginia and New Jersey also are portentous
Three recent elections are informative. In Sweden on September 11, a far-right party won big. On September 25, Giorgia Meloni and the far-right Brothers of Italy party scored a major triumph. These victories are the latest in a growing trend sweeping across Europe. Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, who polls had down 15 points, forced a runoff which he lost by only 1.8 percentage points. However, Bolsonaro’s right-wing party won control of both chambers of Congress. In these elections a common thread is a strong popular rejection of political elites and (except Italy) incredibly faulty polling.
Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics and Polls
Credible polling is dead. Part of its demise is due to uncontrollable trends such as cell phones, which make it impossible to obtain random samples. Then there is the reluctance of many people to respond to polls and the selective nature of those who do respond – liberals respond at a higher rate than conservatives. In recent years a new, and far more insidious, peril has arisen, i.e. pollsters have become woke.
All the electoral forces are aligning for a possible red wave
Most published polls are suppression polls, which skew the results to show liberal candidates far ahead. They believe this incentivizes liberal voters while suppressing conservative voters by conveying the notion they have no chance to win. They also hope such polls reduce the flow of money to conservative candidates.
Every poll missed Brexit and the 2019 UK Tory sweep by wide margins; same with Trump in 2016. In 2020 every poll showed Biden winning comfortably, dems widening their House majority and taking control of the Senate. In actuality, Biden squeaked by, the Dems lost 20 House seats and (before the Georgia runoff elections) did not control the Senate. The poster child for polling wokeness was the Maine Senate race. Not one public poll in 2020 had Susan Collins ahead; many polls showed her behind more than 10 points. Collins won by 9 points. The polls were off by a whopping 20 points.
Fearless Forecast for the Election
As this post is being written, three days before the election, all the electoral forces are aligning for a possible Republican sweep, i.e. a red wave. The only major unknown is if the GOP momentum will continue in the final few days. Late momentum is a potent electoral force. In 1968 Humphrey was surging in the final days prior to the election. If the election would have been held 3 days later, he would have defeated Nixon.
In the 19 midterm elections since 1946, the party out of power has won 95% of the time – all but once. Republicans will take firm control of the House of Representatives with a large majority. However, their potential 2022 gains will be reduced because they picked up 20 seats in 2020, thereby lowering their potential 2022 gains by that same amount. I expect the GOP to pick up 25 to 35 additional seats on November 8.
The Senate electoral calculus is daunting for Republicans as they must defend 22 seats to just 12 for the Democrats. (In 2024 the Dems must defend 23 seats to only 10 for the GOP.) Nonetheless, the GOP will also take control of the Senate. If polls show a GOP candidate down by 5 points or less, you should assume the election is a tossup. If polls show the race even, the GOP candidate will win comfortably. In the end (after the expected runoff election in Georgia), I expect to see the Senate 52-48 GOP, but if the red wave materializes, I look for a GOP majority of 55-45 or even more.
In my home state of Florida, I can feel the pulse of the electorate much stronger and feel confident in my fearless forecast. Governor DeSantis will win by 10 points or more, while Senator Rubio will win decisively but by a smaller margin than DeSantis.
Tip for election night viewing: For an early indication of how the election is going, keep your eye on the New Hampshire Senate race where incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is facing Republican Don Bolduc. A Bolduc win augers well for the GOP. If Bolduc wins big, it likely means a red wave will sweep across America.
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Next week we present the case for abolishing public schools.
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