Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse | More Liberty

Aldous Huxley’s dystopian novel, set in year 2540, warned of what is now happening.

Brave New World Arrives 521 Years Early

By: George Noga – February 10, 2019

This is the second in our Four Horsemen series about the convergence of four gigatrends. This part deals entirely with the hyper-concentration of IQ within the US population. It is longer than usual, but necessarily so. If you missed the first part last week, it is on our website: www.mllg.us. Next week is the third and final part.

A sea change, begun 70 years ago, is transforming America in ways few know or understand. IQ, both low and high, is being evermore concentrated in different cohorts of the population. In Brave New World, the World State (government) controlled children’s IQ in hatcheries. Today we do the exact same thing – only voluntarily.

Some fundamental truths about IQ are accepted by virtually all professionals and academics who specialize in that field. There is such a thing as IQ on which humans differ and which IQ tests measure accurately. IQ matches what people mean when they use terms such as smart and intelligent; it is stable throughout life, but not perfectly so. Properly designed and administered IQ tests are not biased against any group. Finally, and very importantly, IQ is between 40% and 80% heritable.

Before the middle of the last century, intelligence was nearly randomly distributed throughout the population. A poor, uneducated laborer was just as likely to have an high IQ as someone educated and well-off. IQ rarely entered into the calculus for marriage. Then things began to change and the pace of change has accelerated.

### High IQ students attending college soared from a low percentage to nearly 100%.

### Elite colleges were transformed. By 1960 the average 1952 Harvard freshman would be in the bottom 10%; today, he/she would not even think to apply.

### Bright kids from all groups and backgrounds were identified and sorted. Today any smart student can go to college and, if necessary, without paying.

### The IQ of the non-college population, drained of all the brightest kids, tanked.

### Educational partitioning was followed by occupational partitioning.

### The market value of IQ skyrocketed and the income and wealth gaps between cognitive elites and others widened at an alarming rate.

### Selective marriage, based on IQ, is now the norm and breeding between elites and others is rare. People want smart kids who can thrive in the world of the future.

Brave New World has arrived 521 years early. Cognitive elites matriculate in different schools, work in different jobs and workplaces, earn vastly more income, accumulate greater wealth, think about religion differently, shop differently, reside in different cities and neighborhoods and school their children differently. Their culture and politics differ. They intermarry and have kids who are even more elite. We now have fourth generation elites, who know nothing of the lives of ordinary Americans.

Cognitive elites don’t watch the same movies or TV shows, read the same books, eat the same foods, dine at the same restaurants, drive the same automobiles or vacation in the same manner or places as non-elites. They don’t even look the same due to different notions about diet, exercise, piercings, tattoos, dress and cosmetic surgery. They are healthier and have longer life spans. Their language, speech and grammar differ. They eschew the military and disdain hunting, fishing and firearms.

Many elites don’t know even one Evangelical Christian or someone without a college degree or who lives in flyover land. They have little in common with non-elites from whom they differ as much as Huxley’s Alphas and Epsilons. They are two different groups sharing the same land and government. The greatest source of inequality in America today is not economic – it is cognitive and cultural.

What does this auger for America’s future? How much longer will non-elites be content to earn a fraction of what elites earn? How much longer will non-elites be willing to risk their lives and their children’s lives in the police or military to defend a small segment of the population that disdains their service? How long will it be before non-elites, far greater in number, assert control through either the political process or other means? Finally, how long until non-elites demand DNA modification to equalize the IQ of their children with elites; what Pandora’s Box would that open?

I don’t have answers to these questions, but I do know the cognitive divide is real and will soon become a chasm. It explains many things no one likes to talk about or even to acknowledge, i.e. it is a mokita. I also know that if this gigatrend continues on its present course, there will not be a happy ending – especially for elites.

Next is the startling conclusion of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

If Americans hate each other, but honor the Constitution and accept election results, we have a country. Once that stops, anything, including civil war, becomes possible.

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

By: George Noga – February 3, 2019

Four gigatrends are gathering steam; each is life altering. The convergence of two, three or all four will transform life in these United States and on this planet; they are:

1. Concentration of IQ, both high and low, in different cohorts of the population: Instead of the World State controlling children’s IQ in hatcheries, as in Huxley’s Brave New World, we are doing it voluntarily, but every bit as thoroughly.

2. Spending crisis: The US already has crossed the point-of-no-return.

3. Political/Cultural incivility: When we shred the Constitution, reject election results, rig the electoral system and investigate/jail opponents, that is a prelude to civil war.

4. Intergenerational conflict: Ageing population, lengthening lifespans, unfunded medical and pension costs, fewer multi-generational families, spending crisis and rampant intergenerational theft create a recipe for hostility, strife and worse.

FOUR HORSEMEN IS PRESENTED IN THREE PARTS. THIS POST ADDRESSES INCIVILITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL CONFLICT. PART TWO NEXT WEEK FOCUSES ON IQ ISSUES. THE FINAL IN THIS SERIES OFFERS CONCLUSIONS.

Political and Cultural Incivility

Even if Americans hate each other, as long as everyone honors the Constitution and accepts election results, we have a country; once that stops, anything – including civil war – becomes possible. Accepting election results means not trying to change or rig the electoral system, not removing or jailing opponents and not spying on or investigating them without clear evidence of a crime.

There is no doubt incivility is on the ascendancy – one only needs to recall the Kavanaugh nomination. How does it all end? There are only a few possibilities, as described in America’s Cold Civil War by Charles Kesler. A transcendental event could change everything (unlikely) or people might change their minds through persuasion or moderation (unlikely). That leaves only three choices – two of which are devastating.

The most sanguine of the three remaining alternatives is a sluiced up form of federalism whereby red and blue states handle the most contentious and divisive issues on a state level – thus denationalizing them. After all, the reason for our original constitutional federalism is that states have different interests and cultures. It is hard to see that working. What about purple states and issues that can’t be denationalized? If federalism on steroids doesn’t work, that leaves only two other possibilities – secession and civil war – those gruesome scenarios require no further elaboration.

Intergenerational Conflict

For all the reasons noted supra, intergenerational conflict already is present and leading to strife. It is particularly virulent in the UK where negative views about old people are pervasive and even hostile. The US population over 65 will double in the next generation and Social Security and Medicare will require huge intergenerational transfers. On top of that comes the inevitable climax of the spending crisis. Finally, there is also a political and cultural divide between generations.

It will only get worse as cultural, economic, demographic and political fault lines between generations come under more stress. As population ages, lifespan lengthens, Medicare, Social Security and pensions are vastly underfunded, and the spending crisis takes its inevitable toll, it could get ugly. Will less well-off younger generations blithely continue to subsidize older generations with whom they are in conflict and, not to put too fine a point on it, who also stole vast sums from their generation?

Don’t miss part II next week about IQ concentration; it is radioactive!