Category: Presidential Election

If the Election Goes to the House of Representatives

George Noga
What happens if the presidential election goes to the House of Representatives?
You could be in for a surprise; the process may not work the way you believe.
By: George Noga – March 2, 2016

      MLLG is providing this post as a service to our readers. It is way too early to speculate about the outcome of the election; however, the possibility of a third (or fourth) party candidate is much greater this year. Michael Bloomberg is poised to enter the race and to spend billions of his own money under a variety of scenarios such as a Trump nomination or a Clinton indictment or medical crisis. Trump could run if denied the Republican nomination. There are some other plausible scenarios as well.

    Most Americans know if no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, the election goes to the House of Representatives (“House”). Once the election goes to the House however, the process operates much differently than is generally believed. You may want to print this post and retain it for future reference just in case.

    In early January 2017 in a joint session of the new Congress, the President of the Senate opens the Electoral College ballots; tellers count them; and the results are announced by state in alphabetic order. If there is no majority, the Twelfth Amendment prescribes what happens. The House must choose among the top three receiving votes in the Electoral College – the 12th Amendment says this is to be done “immediately”.

    Each state gets one vote regardless of size; Wyoming counts the same as California. To be elected president, the winner must receive 26 votes. Under a rule of the House (not a Constitutional provision) a majority of each state’s delegation must vote for one candidate. Florida has 27 house members; a majority of 14 is needed for Florida’s vote to count. There are 7 states with only one house member (AK, DE, MT, ND, SD, VT and WY); how they vote determines their entire state. If there is no majority (a tie for example) that state’s vote is not recorded. The process continues as long as necessary.

    Meanwhile, the Senate chooses the vice president from the two highest vote getters for vice president. Each senator gets one vote and a majority of 51 is needed for election. There is no requirement that the Senate coordinate its vote with the House and it is possible the president and vice president could be from different parties. Note: The 12th Amendment requires a quorum of two-thirds of the Senate to be present before voting for vice president; thus, any party with 34 senators could prevent a vote.

    The term for President Obama and Vice President Biden ends at noon on January 20, 2017. If the House has not acted by that time but the Senate has, then the Senate’s choice for vice president becomes Acting President. If neither the House nor the Senate has acted by January 20, then the Speaker of the House becomes Acting President with the President Pro Tempore of the Senate next in line.

    The president has been elected only once before under the 12th Amendment. In 1824, a four way election between Andrew Jackson, John Quincey Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay left Jackson 32 votes short of an electoral college majority. Clay threw his support to Adams and on the first ballot Adams received 13 votes of the 25 states then extant – giving him a bare majority and the presidency.

    The next time you find yourself in a conversation and someone brings up the possibility of the 2016 election going to the House, you will be loaded for bear.

 The next post on March 6th revisits our favorite topic – climate change.

Keys to the 2016 US Presidential Election

George Noga
By: George Noga – January 17, 2016

  With Iowa caucuses two weeks away, now is a good time to present some perspective about the forces that will shape the final outcome in November. There are three general electoral keys that have stood up from Washington’s time to today.

  1. There are no permanent majorities in America: Progressives and the media dream the present demographics of race, gender, age and class will result in a permanent majority. They are ignorant of history and the genius of Madison’s Constitution. These are the same folks who consternated in 1988 that the GOP enjoyed a permanent majority. Issues, positions, alliances and demographics continually shift and minority parties skillfully adapt.
  2. The longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose: The odds get ever and ever higher that a party will lose the longer it holds office. Only once in the past 150 years (Reagan-Bush Sr.) did the same party succeed a full two-term president. Americans like change and understand power corrupts.
  3. Economics trumps all else: Remember Bill Clinton’s mantra “It’s the economy, stupid“? People talk about other issues but vote their pocketbook. The US is experiencing chronic stagnation and many key economic metrics have tanked. Business is not investing due to higher taxes, hyper regulation and uncertainty. When the Democrats soak the rich, they drown the middle class.

Following are some electoral keys specific to the current political landscape.

  1. Polling as we know it is dead: Polling also is unreliable, often fraudulent and manipulated by the media. Statistics are fine for randomly picking a few marbles from a jar and making accurate inferences about the contents of the entire jar. Political polling no longer works because 40% of Americans have no land lines; caller ID screens calls; phones are used only for outgoing calls and when someone does answer, they refuse to be interviewed. Gallup and Pew have given up and will not conduct any presidential primary polls in 2016.
  2. ObamaCare remains wildly unpopular: The recent Kentucky election is a case in point. Four days before the election for governor, the Democrat (Conway) led the Republican (Bevin) by 3 points; for senate, the Republican (McConnell) led by 7 points. Bevin won by 9 points – a swing of 12 points and McConnell won by 15 points – an 8 point swing. All or most of this swing is attributable to voter dissatisfaction over ObamaCare which Bevin made a huge issue.
  3. Demographics cut both ways: Democrats may enjoy an edge among certain ethnic, age and gender groups; however, in the 2014 election, Republicans made notable gains among Hispanics, women, Asians and millennials. It will be easier for Republicans to make further gains in these groups (and gains among black voters) than it will be for Democrats to increase their support among white males, which is at 35% and in free fall. Moreover, it is apparent that race, class, gender, age and economic warfare are losing their effectiveness.

I close with two final keys: (1) Real votes trump polls. After Iowa and New Hampshire, real people casting real votes will result in clarity that cannot be found in any poll. (2) It is far, far too early. In 1988 Dukakis led Bush by 17 points and Bush won by 7 points, a swing of 24 points in a short time. Reagan trailed Carter into October of 1980 and in November won by 10 points and carried 44 states.

 

Barring a meltdown by one party or the other, it will be a dogfight and we are not likely to have a good idea of the outcome until at least some time in October.

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The next post will be part I of our multi-post series entitled, Guns in America.

  Part I explains why guns are a liberal bogeyman. Don’t miss this provocative series.