Biden or Trump? It Shouldn’t Matter!

June 23, 2024September 11, 2024 George Noga

Biden or Trump? It Shouldn’t Matter!

Whoever is president should make little difference in our lives

George Noga
June 23, 2024

Each presidential election cycle I remind readers that whoever is president should be of little concern. For the first 150 years of our republic, the party or identity of the president was irrelevant because he had little power over our lives. That is just as our founders intended. The Constitution grants the executive only a few enumerated and limited powers within a framework of separation of powers and checks and balances designed to prevent concentration and abuse of power. Who was on the school board, mayor or governor mattered more in our daily lives than who was president.

In earlier times, government stayed mostly inside its constitutional box. Presidents exercised limited power and vetoed unconstitutional bills. Congress used to check legislation to make sure it passed constitutional muster; it did not cede power to an army of unelected bureaucrats which has morphed into a deep state. The judiciary was largely apolitical. States jealously guarded their rights as part of federalism. The media held government accountable. Ordinary citizens held power to convene grand juries and to nullify laws; they valued liberty above all and voted accordingly.

We have strayed from the halcyon days of limited government to an overbearing one that dictates the amount of water in our toilets, which restrooms to use and can’t define a woman. A recent president declared he would stop the rise of oceans. Even King Canute in the 12th century knew better; his famous anecdote was really to illustrate his humility; unlike Obama, he knew he could not command the tides.

We have gotten to a congress that in the dead of night passes 2,000 page bills containing trillions in spending. We have a hyperpolitical judiciary that conjures new rights from thin air and has abandoned equal justice under law. We have become like Lavrentiy Beria, former chief of the KGB, who said, “show me the man and I’ll show you the crime”. Even the FBI and the intelligence community have taken to pushing misinformation. We have a jury pool in many jurisdictions that is too politicized for a fair trial. We have millions of bureaucrats and 250,000 pages of regulations. We have a statist media, neutered states and a populous that meekly accepts all these horrors.

The concentration of immense power over our daily lives in the hands of the president was predictable. Jefferson understood this when he wrote, “It is the natural order of things for government to gain and for liberty to yield”. Free market capitalism has made Americans so rich we forgot the wellspring of our liberty and prosperity. This has given recent generations the wherewithal to embrace socialism and the leviathan state. Any society that indulges in psychologists and acupuncturists for their pets has badly lost its way. Like Esau, we sold our birthright for a bowl of stew.

Unfortunately, who we elect president in November will wield enormous power over our lives. Presidents have morphed into potentates with unchecked power, unthinkable in the earlier days of our republic. We have come to view elections as contests between good and evil. Everything in our lives has become politicized. We view those with whom we disagree as not merely wrong, but evil. This dehumanization of political adversaries sanctions increasingly extreme behavior.

Our liberty is a priceless jewel of inestimable value. However, its setting has become badly tarnished. It is up to us to restore its original luster by putting government back inside its constitutional box. If we succeed, one day in the future who becomes president will again be of little consequence.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Democracy Sucks

June 16, 2024September 11, 2024 George Noga

Democracy Sucks

Defending the Electoral College

George Noga
June 16, 2024

Since this is a presidential election year, it’s time to revisit questions that arise every four years about the Electoral College, popular vote and democracy. To begin, answer the following question and then ask it of family and friends. It is simple, yet 90% get it wrong. Question: What is the form of government of the United States (a) constitutional republic; (b) representative democracy; (c) democratic republic; (d) direct democracy; (e) constitutional democracy; or (f) democracy? The answer is later in this post.

Electoral College Gets No Respect

The word democracy is not mentioned in either the Declaration of Independence or the Constitution. That is because America is a republic with a republican form of government – not a democracy. A republic is a representative form of government pursuant to a charter or constitution and often consisting of subordinate political entities. Remember: we pledge allegiance to the flag and to the republic for which it stands; we sing the Battle Hymn of the Republic. Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution guarantees to every state a republican form of government.

The Electoral College is consistent with, and a democracy is inconsistent with, a republican form of government. A popular vote would destroy the carefully crafted constitutional architecture based on federalism, separation of powers and checks and balances. A popular vote for president severs it from the rest of the constitutional forms, creates a myriad of new troubles and unleashes tyranny of the majority.

Critics assert that a national popular vote would have changed the outcome of some elections. The truth is there never has been a true popular vote, only a meaningless total of votes cast within the electoral college system. No Democrat squanders precious time and resources in deep red states and no Republican in deep blue states. Further, Democrats in deep red states and Republicans in deep blue states are not motivated to vote knowing their votes are meaningless. Consequently, the popular vote total within the present system has no validity whatsoever.

Moreover, it is unlikely the popular vote would have changed recent elections when requiring 50% to win as there would have been runoff elections with third party candidates eliminated. Hillary Clinton still would have lost the popular vote in 2016; in a runoff, the Green Party vote would have gone to Clinton but the much larger Libertarian Party vote would have gone to Trump. Since 1824, when popular votes first were recorded, 20 presidents failed to receive over 50%.

The electoral college system limits fraud to smaller jurisdictions, reduces federal power over elections and fosters the building of broad coalitions, while discouraging regionalism. Importantly, it safeguards us against tyranny of the majority.

Very few countries use popular vote; most advanced democratic nations use indirect systems. Recently in Canada, Trudeau won with 33% of the vote; Canada’s senate is based on regions, not population. Parliamentary systems, ubiquitous in Europe, routinely elect minority leaders. The senate in Australia has 12 members for each state – South Australia (1.7 million people) has the same number as New South Wales (7.3 million people). In Switzerland, each canton regardless of size has two members.

The US is a constitutional republic to answer the question posed earlier in this post.

National Popular Vote – One Person One Vote

We must go back to first principles. What is the purpose of government? Is it to instantly actualize the will of a bare majority at every moment? Or instead, is the measure of good government whether it is effective at creating long-term justice, stability, freedom and security – like in the US since 1787? If instant actualization is what you want, then the popular vote is for you – but beware the consequences.

Progressives consternate over inequalities inherent in a republic such as in the senate where Wyoming has the same number of senators as California. They consternate about the Electoral College and the filibuster. Under our republican government, senators and the Electoral College represent states – not people.

There is a Soros-funded organization, National Popular Vote or NPV, that aims to replace the Electoral College by a pact among states to pledge their electors to whoever wins the NPV. Thus far 16 blue states with 195 electoral votes have passed enabling legislation. It takes effect when states with 270 electoral votes ratify. Even if NPV reaches its goal, it is unconstitutional. Article I, Section 10 prohibits any compact between or among states without the consent of Congress.

Democracy and Tyranny of the Majority

America’s founders, extraordinarily well versed in history, had contempt for democracy, which they regarded as tyranny. Thomas Paine said, “Democracy is the vilest form of government.” Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on dinner.

While doing my research, I was unable to find one democracy past or present where the majority did not tyrannize minorities. Majoritarian tyranny is occurring throughout the world today including in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, China, Russia, Mexico, Myanmar, Sudan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bolivia, Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia, Botswana, Congo, Central African Republic and much of Latin America and the Arab world. During just the past century, over 100 million Europeans were slaughtered in genocides, pogroms, holocausts and ethnic cleansings. Every one involved tyranny of the majority.

America’s founding fathers, well aware of the excesses of democracy, filled the Constitution with firewalls to protect against the depredations of the mob. Human nature has not changed since 1787 and tyranny of the majority remains an unfortunate part of the human condition.

Returning, as always, to first principles and the purpose of government, do we really want instant actualization by a bare majority? The US Constitution has served us well for 237 years including the Electoral College, Senate and filibuster. Those who argue for democracy are woefully ignorant of history and human nature.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

College Commencement Address

June 9, 2024June 10, 2024 George Noga

College Commencement Address

This is what I would tell graduates of an elite college

GEORGE NOGA
June 9, 2024

Upon your graduation today from this elite college, you will receive congratulations and a diploma. Instead, you should demand an apology, a refund of much of your tuition and repayment of your student loans. You have been hogswallopped, scammed, hoodwinked, bilked and defrauded in almost every way imaginable.

During your many years here, you never were taught by a professor. Most of your graduate student instructors and adjunct faculty sat in the same class last semester that they now teach. Most of you graduated with honors, making them meaningless, just like Lake Woebegone where everyone is above average.

Many of your degrees are useless, some even harmful. If your degree is in a hyphenated subject or in one that ends in studies, consider it worthless. The same applies to degrees in Zombies in Popular Media and Queer Musicology. Moreover, most of you do not need a college degree in the first place. If you are a DEI student, be aware that your admission, grades and graduation are not what they seem.

No one has challenged you with ideas contrary to progressive shibboleths. You have experienced diversity in every way possible except the one that matters, i.e. diversity of thought. You have been indoctrinated in pro-government, anti-capitalist and politically correct orthodoxy. You have been propagandized and terrorized about the environment and climate change. You have been cloistered in a cocoon of conformity and coddled with trigger warnings, safe rooms and speech codes. You will be shocked to learn the real world has no speech codes and all of America is a free speech zone.

Your college has a humongous endowment and doesn’t need to charge tuition. But it has colluded with government, against you and your parents, to raise the cost of tuition. Government made student loans easily accessible and your college raised tuition to capture the maximum amount you could borrow. Middle class working men and women are subsidizing your elite education and they are the ones you stiff when you default on your student loans. You show your ingratitude by flagrantly flaunting your disrespect of their middle American values, patriotism and religion.

You are victims of intergenerational theft and inherit nearly one million dollars as your share of the debt. You soon will experience an economic catastrophe equal to or worse than the Great Depression that will result in a lost generation and a life of quiet desperation. You will be lucky if your life is better than that of your parents.

Not only do you inherit a bankrupt nation, you inherit a dysfunctional world. There are madmen and existential threats from Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. All these bad actors were enabled by American weakness, appeasement and unenforced red lines based on the utopian world view you were taught at this college. There is real evil in this world that burns babies alive and throws gays off tall buildings.

Following this ceremony, go straight to the nearest unemployment office, as this elite college did not equip you to add real value to the economy. Those of you lucky to find a job soon will learn that it is not about you – it is all about the customer. Your next stop after the unemployment office should be at a law firm to sue this college for fraud and to seek a tuition refund and repayment of your student loans. Finally, you must begin to unlearn all the PC crapola you were taught at this college.

If you feel entitled to a break following graduation, why not unwind in a progressive paradise such as Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Iran or Gaza – but remember to bring your own toilet paper. Use your time, while waiting in long lines for food, to decide if you are a fragile, delicate snowflake who must be sheltered in a safe room with a teddy bear, warm cookies and playdough, or if you want to face the real world.

Finally, as alums you will be bombarded with solicitations from this college for donations to add to their already obscenely gigantic endowment. Instead, send them a copy of your student loan repayment schedule and demand a tuition refund.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Summers for Snowflakes

June 2, 2024June 10, 2024 George Noga

Summers for Snowflakes

College students need to acquire grit

GEORGE NOGA
June 2, 2024

College students are indoctrinated in progressive dogma from the moment they set foot on campus. They are unaware they are inside an outre plastic bubble and come to believe their PC world is authentic. They have no clue just how opposed it is to the real world. Upon leaving their ivory towers, they are gobsmacked by reality.

man in black and yellow jacket wearing red helmet holding black and white stick

With summer rapidly approaching, snowflakes would benefit from summer jobs or activities that expose them to the real world. They may even acquire some grit along the way, which would be of inestimable value in their future lives. All the summer activities listed infra are far more valuable than some woke internship.

Gritty Jobs

While earning some walking-around money, snowflakes would benefit incalculably from summer jobs such as those in plumbing, surveying, house painting or construction. These jobs would expose them to a swath of humanity well outside their normal society. They would learn valuable lessons about job demands as well as human nature from their coworkers. They may also acquire some grit.

The life lessons learned during a summer on a construction site would far exceed those from some PC internship. Surprise: snowflakes may even come to like and to respect their coworkers and learn to appreciate different points of view.

Experience the Authentic America

Students could visit America’s flyover land. There would be mandatory stops in Appalachia, the Rust Belt, the Great Plains, the mountain west and the desert southwest. They would be required to mostly stay in small towns – often for days at a time. While there, they must engage the locals and attend events such as fairs and rodeos. It may also be a good idea to include stays in progressive snake pits such as Seattle, Portland and San Francisco to experience firsthand the result of failed progressive policies.

The trip across America could be financed by parents or grandparents¹ and would come with some requirements. Students must spend at least 30 minutes a day keeping a contemporaneous diary including what they did and who they talked with. At the end of the trip they must write a comprehensive report about what they learned.

Military and ROTC

All the armed services have summer ROTC programs for college students.² These programs – including paratroop and ranger training – push cadets to their limits physically and mentally. Cadets learn achievement, wellness, character and leadership. Military experience offers valuable life lessons and immersion in a non-PC subculture. Your drill sergeant will not offer you warm milk and playdough. Participants in these summer ROTC programs can acquire grit on steroids.

Summer in Socialist Countries

Snowflakes are taught, and most believe, socialism is superior to capitalism. In their ignorance, they harbor fantastical, glorified, utopian and unattainable visions of socialism where everyone joins hands to sing Kumbaya. They conflate socialism with Nordic nations, ignorant that all Scandinavian countries have free market capitalism. Moreover, Sweden, the wealthiest Nordic country, is much poorer than the USA.

When hard pressed, snowflakes say they don’t really want socialism; they just want bigger government, i.e. a European-style social welfare state. However, when informed of the middle class tax burden that would be required to fund such a leviathan state, they say they don’t want to pay for it. But I digress.

Students should summer in an authentic socialist country such as nearby Cuba or Venezuela; but they must remember to bring their own medicine and toilet paper. Those demonstrating on behalf of Hamas should spend their summer in Gaza.

True Grit

Snowflakes can benefit from a summer experiencing the authentic America, doing construction, joining an ROTC program or living in a socialist country. They would learn a great deal about America, human nature, tolerance and respect for other viewpoints. Snowflakes might even discover they really like America after all, and, to cap off their summer, they just might acquire some true grit.

Yale has a “Summer Odyssey” program which finances such trips for their insulated students.
There also is summer Junior ROTC for high school students.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Socialism Gaining Popularity

May 26, 2024June 10, 2024 George Noga

Socialism Gaining Popularity

Socialism may appear to succeed briefly, but it always ends the same

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 26, 2024

In recent polls, 41% of US adults have a favorable view of socialism. Among Gen Z support for socialism is 49%, while among Millennials 50% had a positive view of socialism. A majority of Americans age 18-29 believe socialism is the ideal economic system. Socialism is gaining in popularity among women and Black Americans.¹

In this post I address (1) how socialism can appear to succeed briefly; (2) how it always ends; (3) what young Americans believe about socialism; (4) the truth about socialism in Sweden and Scandinavian countries; and (5) the good, the bad and the ugly.

Socialism and the Illusion of Progress

When collectivists first take over a nation, there often is a period of time – perhaps a few years – when socialism appears to work. That is because socialists plunder the wealth of the nation to pay unsustainable benefits using the following artifices.

Socialists confiscate assets of foreign businesses and the wealthy. However, this is a one-off thing; assets can be seized only once before they are gone forever.
They loot businesses and replace competent managers with political hacks who run the business into the ground. Case in point: Venezuelan oil industry.
They strip and plunder natural resources – despoiling the environment.
Progressives run huge budget deficits and borrow to the hilt before defaulting.
They tax the upper and middle classes into oblivion.
They hyperinflate and print worthless currency, as in $100 trillion banknotes.
They pillage banks and make phony (unrepayable) loans to acolytes.
Price controls and rent controls are imposed and evictions forbidden.
Currency and exchange controls are imposed to prevent anyone fleeing.
Corruption and bribery run amok as officials steal billions.

Socialism Always Ends the Same

All the above actions are used to finance the appearance of progress for a time. However, all socialism ever accomplishes is ransaking a nation’s patrimony to achieve an unsustainable and short-lived illusion that things are getting better. Socialism never creates sustainable prosperity. There is not one example in human history where collectivism has produced sustained economic gains.

Socialism always ends the same, it runs out of other peoples’ money and things to plunder. In the end, socialism has nothing to offer except starvation amidst plenty.

Brutality or Indoctrination?

Aldous Huxley (Brave New World) and George Orwell (1984) carried on a lively correspondence about the best way for collectivists to cow citizens into obedience. Huxley argued technology and drugs were were more effective than brutality.

“The world’s rulers will discover that (youth) conditioning and drugs are more effective as instruments of government than clubs and prisons. . . . Suggesting people into loving their servitude will satisfy the lust for power better than flogging them into obedience.”

Young Americans Fail to Understand Socialism

The support young Americans have for socialism is based on ignorance. They harbor warm and fuzzy notions of some abstract egalitarian utopia that does not exist and cannot exist in the real world. Simultaneously, they embrace a dark vision of capitalism, which they see as a dog-eat-dog system with great wealth disparities. They conveniently ignore socialist hellholes like Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea.

“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. . . . those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” C.S. Lewis

When pressed, young Americans do not see socialism as state control of industry and of the entire economy. What they really want is more government social welfare programs, i.e. a classic European-style social welfare state. When Millennials are asked how they would fund their version of socialism, their support for it plummets. They favor taxing the wealthy into oblivion, but oppose (by large margins) across-the-board tax increases and higher sales taxes. In short, they are clueless.

Socialism and Sweden

Progressives and the young who favor socialism, invariably trot out Sweden² as the poster child. Many adult Americans and most young Americans harbor some fantastical, glorified, unrealistic and unattainable vision of Sweden and, to a lesser extent, other Scandinavian countries as socialist utopias. However, Nordic nations impose much higher taxes on the middle class than the US. Furthermore, the top 10% of Americans pay a greater share of taxes than in the Nordic nations.

All Scandinavian countries have had free market capitalist economies for many decades. Sweden briefly flirted with socialism in the 1970s and 1980s. It failed abjectly and the Swedes rejected it in favor of a return to capitalism. Moreover, Sweden is nowhere near as prosperous as young Americans believe. If Sweden were a US state, it would be poorer³ than our poorest state (Mississippi) by 30%. The GDP of Houston, Texas is higher than that of all of Sweden.

The Good – The Bad – And The Ugly

If there is any good news, it’s that younger Americans really don’t want socialism per se; they just want more government programs – but they don’t want to pay for them. The bad news is they want a European-style social welfare state. The ugly news is that they are woefully ignorant about socialism, capitalism, history and economics.

There are numerous polls and surveys available; I have used an average number.
I have written extensively about Sweden and socialism. My most recent post is October 7, 2018 entitled “Nordic Nations and Socialism”. You can read it on my website: www.mllg.us.
When adjusted for the cost of living.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

The Depopulation Bomb

May 12, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

The Depopulation Bomb

The US may have more people than China by 2100

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book, The Population Bomb, incited a global panic about overpopulation, alleging billions would die of starvation. Ehrlich had it bass ackward. Mankind is facing a population collapse of biblical proportion. Following are some of the highlights. For more information, please see my post of February 14, 2021 entitled “The Global Population Collapse”; it is available on my website: www.mllg.us.

Ghost towns proliferate

US population may surpass China’s by 2100 and certainly will do so by 2124.¹
World population, now 8 billion, will peak in 40 years at 9.7 billion and then decrease to 7.5 billion by 2100 before plunging to around 5 billion by 2124.² Global population could plummet to 2 billion by 2300 on its way to oblivion.³
Population collapse is more pernicious than population gain. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly and reversing it becomes nearly impossible.
To the extent manmade global warming exists, it will be 100% solved within 100 years by population collapse and all without spending any money.

US May Surpass China in Population by 2100

Today’s population of China is 1.4 billion and the US is 336 million; China has one billion more people. Nonetheless, it is not implausible that the US will be more populous in 74 years, or by 2100. It is near certain the US will surpass China within 100 years, or by 2124. This is astounding, but such is the power of demographics.

The best estimates for China’s population in 2100 are between 488 million (UN low variant) and 525 million (Shanghai Academy and Victoria University in Australia). The best estimates for the US in 2100 are the UN mid to high variants which is between 400 million and 543 million. Within 100 years, or by 2124, it is near certain the US will be more populous, approaching 500 million to China’s 300 to 400 million.

China’s fertility rate is 1.0, meaning its population will be halved every generation. In contrast, the US fertility rate is 1.7, but tens of millions with high fertility rates are being added via immigration – including from China.

World Population Peaks in 40 Years and Then Plunges

Global population, currently 8.0 billion, will peak circa 2065 at 9.7 billion and then begin an inexorable and precipitous decline to around 5 billion by 2124, or within 100 years. Per the UN study, global population could be as low as 2.3 billion by 2300. Demographics is destiny and human behavior, once established, is slow to change.

China alone will have one billion fewer people. Even though China abandoned the one-child policy, it has not affected fertility, which remains stubbornly anemic. Having children is primarily driven by economics and as populations become more affluent, the economic calculus is for fewer children.

Population Collapse is Nearly Impossible to Reverse

As population collapses, it also ages precipitously. Women of childbearing age become a much smaller cohort of the population. Trying to reverse a population decline with an old population is nigh impossible. Many demographers believe Earth’s population never again will approach current levels.

“Depopulation will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic and it will do so without spending a nickel. We must immediately stop squandering trillions of dollars when a total solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.”

Consider life with virtually no aunts, uncles, siblings and cousins. There will be too few health care workers to care for a huge cohort of elderly. There will be only two workers to support each retiree. Many pension plans will fail. When retirees cash out their IRAs, who will buy? From where will governments derive their funding?

Silver Linings from Population Collapse

Population implosion has serendipitous benefits. First and foremost, it will completely solve climate change to the extent it is anthropogenic. Fewer people means less CO2. Even if everyone is much better off economically and uses more energy, depopulation will be so drastic that greenhouse gas emissions will be less than today. We need immediately to stop squandering trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us squarely in the face.

In addition to solving climate change, depopulation will result in much of the planet being rewilded and the environment reverting to a pristine condition.

Although depopulation will not begin to occur for decades, the die is cast. There are actions humanity should take today – most notably to stop wasting money on climate change. Depopulation cannot be stopped. Demographics is destiny!

Projection by Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which has a history of being accurate.
United Nations Study entitled “World Population to 2300”.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis based on a constant fertility rate of 1.84, the fertility rate projected for 2100. Note: Most wealthy countries today have fertility rates under 1.5.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

May 12, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024: Voter Ignorance

Voters may be ignorant, but they are not stupid

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 12, 2024

This post continues my analysis of the 2024 election. Most voters don’t know our form of government, wrongly believing it to be a democracy rather than a constitutional republic. This explains why they also misunderstand the Electoral College and the makeup of the Senate. They don’t grasp the dangers inherent in a pure democracy and fail to understand why the will of a bare majority cannot be instantly actualized.

The founders didn’t see voter ignorance as a problem because the federal government had little power over the lives of citizens. Politics was mostly local and voters often knew the candidates personally or, at a minimum, knew firsthand of their reputation. Furthermore, voting was limited to a small cohort of educated white male landowners. Under federalism, senators were not elected; they were appointed by states.

Everything has changed. Government at all levels exercises enormous power over our lives; it accounts for nearly 40% of GDP versus 5% in the early years of the republic. Senators are now elected directly and few voters have any firsthand knowledge of the candidates. There is universal suffrage and issues have become much more complex.

Just how serious of a problem is voter ignorance? Is it problematic that voters spend much more time comparison shopping for a new TV than on candidates and issues? Such voters are behaving rationally because their decision about a TV makes an immediate and significant difference in their lives – in terms of both cost and quality. In contrast, the chance their vote will make any difference is infinitesimal.

Just because voters may be ignorant about the candidates and issues does not mean they are stupid or irrational. Should voters spend countess hours studying the intricacies of foreign trade, immigration and tax policy? There are several ways voters behave in an erudite manner despite being grossly underinformed or misinformed.

Voters rely on political parties and endorsements. Our two major political parties have well defined and long established philosophies of governance. A liberal voter will gravitate toward one party, a conservative voter toward another.
Issues and Media inform voters. Those who rank abortion as the most important issue will vote one way; those who favor limited government, another.
Candidates go to great lengths to define themselves and also their opponents. Even though this process is hackneyed, those who vote based on candidates, rather than parties or issues, have ample basis to decide.
Voters recognize and act on serious problems. When the US is beset with critical problems – social, economic or geopolitical – many voters will vote out those perceived to be responsible regardless of political party.
Peace and prosperity are rewarded. This is the flip side to #4 above. Voters reward success – again, regardless of party. They reward those who make their lives better.
All else being equal, voters will choose an incumbent over a newbie. They adhere to the old maxim – better the fool that you know than the devil you don’t.
Voters reject prolonged one party rule. Even low information voters viscerally grasp one party rule results in complacency and corruption. Since FDR, only Reagan/Bush won three consecutive elections. No party has won four straight (except reconstruction and FDR) since beginning in 1801 with Jefferson.
People vote with their feet. Currently, we are seeing this writ large as voters are fleeing blue states en mass and moving to red states.

As shown above, even no-information voters usually behave rationally according to their established beliefs and interests. The problem is their beliefs are based on a flawed understanding of the relationship between man and the state. They believe in more government and less liberty instead of more liberty and less government.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Spending Crisis Has Begun

May 5, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Spending Crisis Has Begun

America is being forever transformed

GEORGE NOGA
MAY 5, 2024

I have been writing about the spending crisis for many years. I began by explaining how to avoid it; this was followed by warnings it was imminent. More recently, I wrote America had crossed the point of no return. During the past year, I debated whether or not the crisis had begun. Now – for the first time – I boldly declare the crisis has begun. In recent weeks dire warnings also have been issued by Jamie Dimon, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, CBO and Mises Wire.

US Government Bankruptcy Petition

In past blogs, I noted the crisis could begin gradually, or might suddenly be triggered by an unforeseen event. I now believe both will happen. More to the point, I believe the crisis already has begun gradually and there also will be a future sudden trigger, i.e. a Minsky Moment, after which nothing will be the same. For more information about Minsky Moments, please see my post dated February 4, 2023 titled “Watch for the Minsky Moment” in Substack archives and also on my website: www.mllg.us.

Why the Crisis has Begun

My deciding factor in declaring the crisis has begun is that it is having a discernible impact on markets. The ugly specter of unsustainable spending, and its concomitant debt, is making current interest rates higher than they otherwise would be. This has profound effects across the entire economy. It affects, inter alia, inflation, energy, mortgages, new construction and credit card debt. The present impact of the debt crisis, although real, may be moderate, but it will get worse – much worse.

Individuals, institutions and countries believe the Fed will be forced to monetize the debt, i.e. to print money. Consequently, they are demanding higher interest rates and much shorter maturities. This, of course, jacks up interest payments on the debt, which leads to more borrowing and then to higher rates – a classic vicious circle. Other indicia the spending crisis already has begun are:

$7.6 trillion of debt must be rolled over within 12 months. Treasury will have to hike rates to unload this debt. Why buy now if you can get higher rates soon?
Recent Treasury auctions have experienced considerable investor pushback.
This FY interest on the debt will consume 20% of government revenue. How much higher can this go before the market for US debt dries up entirely?
One major credit rating agency (Moody’s) has US Treasury securities on negative credit watch, i.e. they are about to downgrade them.
Foreigners have scaled back purchases of Treasuries by 30% in recent years.
Mainstream media reports about the debt spiral have increased dramatically while simultaneously becoming more apocalyptic in tone. The headline of one article was “As the US Treasury Runs Out of Creditors, Its Options Dwindle”.

Now that the spending crisis has begun, the next thing to watch for is the Minsky Moment, i.e. the event that makes it unmistakably clear things never again will be the same as before the Minsky Moment. Most likely, the Minsky Moment will be:

Significant downgrade of US debt
Inability of Treasury to roll over the debt, i.e. demand plummets
Statement by a highly credible source that the US is headed for default
Debt ratio and/or the share of interest expense to revenue reaches (or it becomes dead obvious soon will reach) obscene levels; think Zimbabwe
A sudden and unexpected event that, in and of itself, may not be significant but goes viral and by the end of the day the market for Treasury debt evaporates

Dire Warnings from Mainstream Media

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the world’s largest bank, called debt a “hockey stick”. Dimon is the most credible person on the planet; here is what he said at a recent event when asked for his assessment of the debt crisis.

“ It’s a hockey stick (describing how the debt looks on a graph). The US has not reached the surge yet, but when it starts, there will be a rebellion. It’s a cliff and we see the cliff, it’s about 10 years out and we’re going 60 miles per hour toward it. . . . (Snowballing debt) is the most predictable crisis we’ve ever had.” Other economists on the panel agreed.

The WSJ headline on March 25, 2024 read “Surging Treasury Sales Unnerve Investors”. The article describes Treasury debt as “exploding” and went on to say that “any instability in the market for Treasuries could be catastrophic”.
The head of the CBO warned Congress about rising national debt and interest costs, stating the debt ratio soon will be the highest in history.
Bloomberg Economics ran one million simulations on the US debt outlook and concluded that 88% of them were unsustainable.
Mises Wire headlined “America’s Fiscal Collapse Accelerates”. “At this point, there is nothing standing between us and fiscal collapse. The only question is when”.

There is a Great Deal of Ruin in a Nation

Of course, the 64 trillion dollar question is: when? The short answer is there is no way to know. I would not be shocked if the Minsky Moment occurred tomorrow, as all the predicates already are in place. More likely, we still are a few years away.

Adam Smith famously quipped, “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”. He meant governments and citizens can survive destructive policies much longer than assumed. The economy, security and social cohesion of the United States of America are now on borrowed time. We will soon find out how much ruin America can tolerate.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Election 2024 Update

April 28, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Election 2024 Update

How things stand today and my fearless forecast

GEORGE NOGA
APR 28, 2024

This unscheduled posting responds to reader requests for an election update. Following is my take on where things stand now and for the general election.

Democratic Party Nomination

I stand by my belief that the nominee, more likely than not, will be Gavin Newsome. However, Newsome’s star has begun to fade since my last update in December. He now risks being relegated to the same status as other democrat fallen angels such as Beto O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams.

Democratic Party convention-1968 Chicago

Although Biden has secured enough votes for the nomination, there remain six long months to navigate before the general election. What’s obvious to anyone paying attention is also obvious to the Democratic Party he-coons, i.e. Biden is greatly diminished and not likely to finish a second term. This means Kamala Harris will become president and lead the party to electoral disaster in 2026 and 2028. Any of the following is likely to result in Biden not becoming the nominee.

He has more public episodes of falling, incontinence, wandering aimlessly, shaking hands with ghosts and mumbling unintelligibly. Biden navigated the SOTU address because: (1) there was no ad-libbing; (2) he practiced for a week; (3) he was kept up nights to acclimate him to staying up past his bedtime; and (4) he was pumped up with a potent pharmacological smorgasbord.
Party elders persuade him to step down. It would take someone like Barack Obama, Bill and Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.
Disastrous poll numbers continue or get even worse. His bowing out could be cast as an unselfish act of statesmanship to make it palatable.
The Chicago Democratic convention gets really ugly and goes rogue.

Debates

There will be no presidential debates if Biden is the nominee. You can put that in the bank. Whether there will be a vice presidential debate is an open question. Democrats are not likely to risk exposing Kamala Harris if it is not necessary.

Lawfare

Democrats will do anything possible to secure at least one conviction before the election so they can label Trump a convicted felon. They don’t care that any conviction almost surely will be reversed on appeal – which would come only after November. The cases against Trump are so pathetically weak it is possible he can get hung juries and/or delay some of the trials until after the election.

However, the jury pools in New York, Washington D.C. and Fulton County are so overwhelmingly progressive, it is likely the Dems can obtain at least one conviction. How much this harms Trump’s electoral prospects is an open question. My guess is there will be some damage but much less than the Dems hope for.

General Election – November 5th

The election will be less about issues and more about ballots. If it is close, the election will be decided by early voting, mail-in voting and ballot harvesting – both legal and illegal. There will be widespread fraud in the dissemination of ballots to millions of people who did not request them. This is how most fraud occurs. Fraud in the counting is not the problem; it is the millions of ballots unaccounted for.

If the election is close, it will not be decided by issues – but by ballots.

The Dems will run on three things: (1) January 6th; (2) abortion; and (3) labelling Trump a convicted felon. The GOP will run on: (1) inflation and the economy; (2) crime; (3) illegal immigration; and (4) Biden’s (if he is the nominee) cognitive state and the specter of Kamala Harris as president. They will run ads with a montage of Biden’s pratfalls interspersed with Kamala Harris giggling uncontrollably.

Who Will Win in November

If the election were today, Trump would win handily against Biden. Trump has made startling inroads few thought possible among Latinos, African-American males, millennials, independents and even suburban women. Trump is ahead in nearly all the swing states and even in the so-called popular vote. Robert Kennedy and the Green Party will draw votes from Biden. The Libertarian Party will hurt Trump; but on balance third parties and independents will hurt Biden more.

But the election is not today; it is 6 months away and Biden may not be the nominee. The outcome of the Dems’ lawfare is unknown but is looking shakier by the week. There will be many unexpected events and likely fake news. Not all of Trump’s support among the demographics listed above is likely to continue.

Most voters don’t focus on the election until after Labor Day and there often are huge swings in October and early November. Carter led Reagan into October but Reagan carried 44 states. Dukakis led Bush by double digits in early October.

Following is my fearless forecast as of April 28, 2024.

If Trump runs against Biden and most of his support among independents, Latinos, Blacks, youths and women holds, he wins decisively.
If Trump’s support dwindles among the aforementioned groups, it will be close and come down to who does better at early voting, mail-ins and harvesting.
If Gavin Newsome or someone else is the nominee, it is too early to opine.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com

Why Dems Want Open Borders

April 14, 2024May 23, 2024 George Noga

Why Dems Want Open Borders

The answers are likely to surprise you

GEORGE NOGA
APR 14, 2024

A reader emailed to ask if I could explain why Democrats are so strongly in favor of open borders despite the obvious harm it is causing to our nation and even to their own election prospects for 2024. There are five fundamental reasons which are revealed below in descending order, i.e. the strongest reason first.

person in black shirt and black pants standing on brown sand during daytime — US – Mexico Border

Reason #1: Ideology

Democrats guzzle the progressive kool-aid. They consider America an evil colonizing force that has wrought great harm, particularly to people of color. They don’t believe in borders and regard those opposing illegal immigration as racist and xenophobic.

Reason #2: Turning Texas Blue

In recent elections Dems have come within 2.5 percentage points of winning Texas. Many of the 12 million (and counting) migrants remain in Texas, some of whom eventually will vote via citizenship or their children, who are citizens if born in the USA. If Dems flip the 40 electoral votes (44 after the next census) of Texas, that would make it all but impossible for the GOP ever to win another election.

Reason #3: The 2030 Census

The American Redistricting Project (ARP) forecasts that in the 2030 census California will lose 5 seats in Congress, New York will lose 4 seats and Illinois will lose 2 seats. Winners are Texas and Florida, which gain 4 seats each, and Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Tennessee each pick up one seat. This spells disaster for Dems unless they somehow can change this electoral calculus.

In the 2016 election, the deep blue and deep red states both had 232 electoral votes. The 2020 census changed this balance marginally – 235 deep red versus 231 deep blue. However, based on 2030 ARP data, deep red states will have 247 electoral votes versus just 219 for deep blue states. The Dems solution: open borders. They want to surge migrants into deep blue states to minimize loss of electoral votes and seats in Congress. For purposes of redistricting, non-citizens are counted.

Reason #4: The Long Game

As noted supra, children of migrants born in America are voting citizens. Let’s stipulate, a arguendo, the total number of migrants under Biden (through 2024) is 12 million and their fertility rate is 2.5. This results in 15 million (15,000,000) new votes. These children of migrants would be eligible to vote within 5 presidential cycles. If this seems distant, recall that just 5 cycles ago Barack Obama was president.

Reason #5: Cheap Labor

Many of the Dems largest donors benefit from a steady supply of cheap labor.

Progressives are wreaking havoc on our country with their open borders. Violent crime is surging; schools struggle to cope with new students who don’t speak English; housing is unavailable; and the cost is bankrupting cities. Sadly, the great pain inflicted on America by the Dems, in an effort to change the calculus of future elections, is not only illegal and cynical, but will not achieve the hoped-for result.

The values of Hispanic migrants are sympatico with conservatives’ and diametrically opposed to progressives’. Latinos value family, religion, hard work, thrift and law and order. It would be poetic justice if the surge of illegal immigration backfired on the Democrats and resulted in a long term electoral majority for Republicans.

© 2024 George Noga
More Liberty – Less Government, Post Office Box 916381
Longwood, FL 32791-6381, Email: mllg@cfl.rr.com