Election Analysis and Afterthoughts

Hillary had a world class marketing team trying to sell box wine to oenophiles, more baggage than a carousel at LAX, a paranoid streak rivaling Nixon and a limitless sense of entitlement.
Election Analysis and Afterthoughts
By: George Noga – January 15, 2017
     We got it right all year! My January 17th post cited 3 principles: (1) no permanent majorities; (2) the longer a party is in power, the more likely it is to lose; and (3) economics trumps all else. I also cited 3 keys: (1) polling is dead; (2) Obamacare is wildly unpopular; and (3) demographics, i.e. for Republicans to make gains among Hispanics, Asians, women and millennials would be easier than for Democrats to make gains among whites. All 6 of these principles and keys proved to be correct.
 
     My September 20th special posting began “I don’t purport to know who will win the election, but I know how it will be decided. . . . It will be decided by les deplorables, good-hearted, hard-working Americans branded as racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic and Islamophobic and revulsed by the latte-left’s perversion of America and outraged about being lied to.” Those words proved to be prophetic.
 
     Our final preelecton post on November 6th stated the race was tightening and Trump would win if all or most of the following happened: (1) polling was flawed; (2) there were late shifts in voter sentiment; (3) Obamacare repudiation was robust; (4) government failure drove voters as in the Brexit vote; and (5) blacks and millennials stayed home while evangelicals turned out in force. BINGO! All five happened. 
 
     Clinton and the Democrats lost because a good, decent and just society is based on a voluntary social and economic compact between citizens and government. That compact was violated, desecrated and trampled upon by Obama, Clinton and liberal elites who would be our masters. Voters demanded change from failed hyper-progressive social and economic policies. It had nothing to do with Comey or Putin; it had everything to do with deeply flawed governance and candidates.

Post-Election Reflections

  •     Hillary outspent Trump 2 to 1 and had a better organization but, in the final analysis, the best sales and marketing are limited by the product being sold. As one pundit nailed it, they had world class marketers trying to sell box wine to oenophiles.
  •     After every defeat, Democrats delude themselves into believing that their problem lay in not getting their message out. Their problem was that they did get their message across and it was soundly rejected by the voters. They never learn.
  •     Liberals exposed their churlish souls after the election: rioting, contesting the results, tampering with the electoral college and planning to disrupt the inauguration.
  •    Voters repudiated Obama’s policies and his method of governance, although he remains personally popular. Both Hillary and Obama immeasurably aided Trump.
  •     Demonization of opponents is dead. The Democrats won in 2012 by turning a good and decent man (Romney) into an unrecognizable monster. It did not work against Trump even though he was a target rich candidate. It may never work again.
  •     Democrats obsess with branding their opponents as racists. That abomination also may never work again. Disagreement about immigration is not racism. Over 200 counties that voted for Obama in 2012 changed to Trump; were they all racists? 
  •     Steve Bannon as a Trump advisor outraged liberals who were a-okay with Al Sharpton advising Obama. Bannon has degrees from Georgetown and Harvard, served 7 years as a navy officer and had successful stints at Goldman Sachs and Breitbart News. Sharpton attended Brooklyn College for two years before dropping out, never served in the military, owes $4.5 million in unpaid taxes and is known mainly for his role in the sordid Tawana Brawley affair that a jury ruled was a giant hoax.
 
    The fierce, frothing-at-the-mouth animus and virulence liberals are showing for Trump is not out of concern for America or because progressives are afraid he will fail. Au contraire; it is entirely because they are  terror-stricken that he will succeed!

 Coming January 20th – an Inauguration Day retrospective of the Obama presidency

The Legacy of Fidel Castro

A preview of this blog for 2017 and also Fidel Castro’s Legacy for Cuba
The Legacy of Fidel Castro
2017 Preview of the MLLG Blog
By: George Noga – January 8, 2017

    Before we get to Cuba, I must attend to some MLLG business. I hope you enjoyed the new MLLG blog throughout the past year. We are continuing the blog in 2017; hence, I now must ask for contributions from readers to help with our costs which are not inconsequential. I hope that this will be the only time I make such a request.

    All support goes 100% for expenses; any help, even a small amount, is appreciated. Please mail your check to MLLG at: P. O. Box 916381, Longwood, FL 32791-6381. To save time and money, I no longer maintain a separate MLLG legal entity; therefore your check, to be negotiable, must be made payable to “George Noga“. Thanks to all of you for reading, forwarding to others and for all your support since we began in 2007.

    I am excited about upcoming posts. Next week we present a postmortem of the 2016 election; this is followed by a special edition on Inauguration Day (January 20) which is a not-to-be-missed retrospective of the Obama presidency. Other upcoming topics include: Kitty Genovese and the Democrats, nullification, the war on blacks, the ninth amendment, more on climate change and MLLG commencement addresses for both high school and college. With the election now over, 2017 will contain more posts about economic, tax, human interest, environmental and cultural issues.

Fidel Castro’s Legacy

   In 1959 revolutions took place in two countries, both on small, subtropical islands governed by dictators. Both countries were mountainous, less than 25% arable and both relied on sugar exports. Also in both cases, there were giant hostile mainland nations just a few miles away that cut off all diplomatic and economic relations and threatened military invasion. However, one of the nations was much more prosperous than the other one and well ahead in terms of health, education and income.

    One of the two nations was Cuba and in 1959 it was the more prosperous. Today its economy has failed; its per capita GDP is $5,500, but the take home pay of most Cubans is $30 per month. It remains a brutal dictatorship filled with political prisons that practice torture. Its GDP per capita ranks 137 in the world and its freedom index ranks 171. One-third of all pregnancies are aborted and it is a nihilistic society.

    Even Cuba’s vaunted health care system is a failure. Cuban doctors botched Fidel’s treatment in 2006; specialists from Spain flew in to save his life. Infant mortality, once claimed to be ultra low, is based on lies. Cuban data are based on forced abortions for any pregnancy considered risky and they do not count infant deaths from underweight births. Cuba’s infant mortality is worse than elsewhere in Latin America. Most Cuban doctors are sent abroad to earn hard currency to keep the regime from utter failure.

    You may be surprised that the second country referred to is Taiwan. Dirt poor and under military dictatorship in 1959, it became a vibrant democracy and a capitalist economic tiger. Today Taiwan’s economy ranks 21 in the world with per capita GDP of $40,000. It ranks 26 on the index of human freedom. Cuba was ahead of Taiwan in 1959 in nearly every metric of human and economic well being. The juxtaposition of Cuba and Taiwan between 1959 and today reveals the true human and economic disaster that is the eternal legacy of Fidel Castro to the remaining people of Cuba.

    Castro and Che may continue to adorn tee shirts of clueless youth. Useful idiots, in and out of the media, may offer encomia, but the people of Cuba, when the regime inevitably falls, will render final judgment. Castro statues will be felled, murals defaced and the truth outed – that Fidel was a hypocritical, despotic, murderous megalomaniac who inflicted incalculable poverty and suffering on the people of Cuba.


Our next post January 15th presents a postmortem on the 2016 election.

A Cri de Coeur from California

A gripping post-election letter from a disillusioned lifelong California liberal
A Cri de Coeur from California
By: George Noga – December 25, 2016
   Since beginning my blog in 2007, this is the first time I am devoting an entire posting to a single quote (edited for length). I am presenting this as an unplanned Christmas gift to readers, some of whom undoubtedly have already seen it on the internet as it is going viral. The writer wishes to remain anonymous for obvious reasons. Enjoy!
     “I am a secular/agnostic Californian and I want to share with you, from the liberal bastion of Northern California, that I am officially tired of the type of people who have surrounded me my entire life. In the wake of Trump’s election, I am experiencing “tribe fatigue”. I’m not tired of the Other, Deplorable Tribe; I’m tired of my own.
      I was raised a secular liberal; my parents were non-religious Democrats and my ex-Catholic mom loathes organized religion to this day. My college professors were secular liberals. During my journalism phase, my newspaper colleagues were secular liberals. My law school professors and peers were – in the vast majority – secular liberals. Almost everyone at my law firm was a secular liberal. My California neighbors and friends all are secular liberals as are my siblings and their spouses.
     By all rights, I should be a member in good standing of their tribe and joining their candlelight vigils against the evil Trump Administration. But November 8 and its aftermath revealed to me that I am just so tired of these people. I can’t be like them and I don’t want my kids turning into them.
  • I am tired of their undisguised contempt for tens of millions of Americans, with no effort to temper their response to the election with humility or empathy.
  • I am tired of their unexamined snobbery and condescension.
  • I am tired of the name-calling and virtue-signalling as signs of high intelligence.
  • I am tired of their trendiness, jumping on every left-liberal bandwagon that comes along (transgender activism, anyone?) and then acting like anyone not on board is an idiot/hater.
  • I am tired of their shallowness. It’s hard to have a conversation with people obsessed only with moving their kids’ pawns across the board.
  • I am tired of their acceptance of vulgarity and sarcastic irreverence as the cultural ocean in which their kids swim. 
  • I like pop culture as much as the next person but people who never raise their kids on junk food seem to think nothing of letting them wallow in cultural junk.
  • I’m tired of watching them raise clueless kids who go off to college and within months are convinced they live in a rapey, racist patriarchy; Make America Great Again is hate speech; and Black Lives Matter agitators are their brothers-in-arms against White Privilege.
  • I’m tired of their lack of interest in morality or self-betterment. They believe being nice, well-socialize people who hold correct political views is all there is.
  • I’m tired of being bored and exasperated by everybody. I feel like I have read this book a thousand times. Down with Trump! Trans Lives Matter! Climate deniers are destroying the planet! No cake, we’re gluten-free!
     Since November 8th, we have been taking the kids to church . . . secular liberalism seems empty in some way, despite all the things my former tribe has to be thankful for. I want more, especially for my precious kids; I’m trying. . . . I have come this close to buying a giant poster of the American flag for the living room. I may do it still.”
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Next up on January 8th is our take on the Legacy of Fidel Castro 

George Washington’s Mount Vernon Christmas

George Washington’s Mount Vernon Christmas is a holiday tradition at MLLG. Enjoy!
George Washington’s Mount Vernon Christmas
By: George Noga – December 18, 2016
      We are reprising America’s greatest Christmas story; it is 100% true but known only to few; it is deeply moving and uniquely American. The events that ended on Christmas Eve 1783 could not have happened anywhere but America. It shaped our republic in ways being felt today. It is an authentic, feel-good classic to be shared with children and grandchildren.
Note: This post is much longer than normal but I believe you will agree that it is well worth it.

Christmas – New Year’s Eve 1776

     Washington wrote, “The reflection upon my situation and that of this army produces many an uneasy hour when all around me are wrapped in sleep. Few know the predicament we are in.” Washington was desperate; 1776 had been the darkest year in American history. He had endured a succession of military disasters. The morale of his remaining army, starving and freezing, was rock-bottom; hundreds desert during the night. He is down to only 2,400 troops.
     On the New Year’s Eve march to Trenton, many have no shoes and wrap their feet in burlap during the all night march, leaving behind a crimson trail of blood in the new fallen snow as a sudden and fierce northeast storm engulfs his Continentals. The fate of the American Revolution has come down to this. Washington is down to one last desperate throw of the dice. And although Washington leads one of the most successful surprise attacks in history, it only buys time. Ahead is the desperate winter of 1777-1778 at Valley Forge. Indeed, every winter and Christmas until 1783 was the same story of hunger, cold and privation.

Quelling a Revolt; Word of Peace Treaty

       Just before receiving word of the peace treaty in 1783, Washington was confronted with a rebellion. He called a meeting of his officers, gave a short speech and then reached for a letter from Congress in his pocket to read aloud. He gazed upon it and fumbled with it without speaking. He then took a pair of reading glasses from his pocket which none had seen him wear before. He said, “Gentlemen, you will permit me to put on my spectacles for I have not only grown gray but almost blind in the service of my country.” This moved everyone to tears as they realized the sacrifices Washington had made; the rebellion died instantly.

       On November 17, 1783 Washington received word that the peace treaty had been signed ending the war. Only then could he resign his commission and return home to Mount Vernon, from which he had been away for eight long years – except for only a few days while enroute to Yorktown. Upon learning of the treaty, Washington yearned to be home in Mount Vernon in time for Christmas but he had less than six weeks, many duties to perform and many miles to travel. What follows is the story of Washington’s incredible 38-day Christmas journey.

A Mount Vernon Christmas: November 17 to December 24, 1783

   Farewell Orders to the Troops

     On November 17th Washington issued his “Farewell Orders” lauding his troops for their extreme hardship and urging them never to forget the extraordinary events to which they bore witness. He closed by announcing his retirement from service stating, “The curtain of separation will soon be drawn . . . and closed forever” meaning for all future offices. Instead of using such an opportunity to promote himself, he appeared above all human ambition. When his remarks reached King George III, he called Washington “the greatest man of his age”.

New York and Fraunces Tavern

      Washington left camp and arrived in New York November 21st; he thought it necessary to reoccupy New York but he had to wait for the British to evacuate. While there he made sure Tories who had secretly assisted the American cause were shielded from retribution. He also protected the British withdrawal to prevent untoward actions. Everywhere Washington was greeted as a hero with cheering and enthusiastic crowds; nearly every home had a drawing or lithograph of him in the window. Receptions and dinners were held nightly in his honor.
     On December 4th Washington hosted a farewell reception for his officers at Fraunces Tavern. He realized the inadequacy of any formal address and did not trust his emotions to read one. When all the glasses were filled, Washington offered a toast, “With a heart filled with love and gratitude, I now take my leave of you. I most devoutly wish your later days may be as prosperous and happy as your former ones have been glorious and honorable.” Following the toast, blinded by tears and his voice faltering, Washington continued, “I cannot come to each of you but shall be obliged if each of you will come and take me by the hand.” Each officer came forward suffused with tears and unable to utter a single intelligible word.

Philadelphia, Wilmington and Enroute to Annapolis

     From December 5-18 Washington’s journey took him to Philadelphia where he spent several days and then onward, via Wilmington, toward Annapolis, where Congress was then sitting. At every stop and all along his route throughout his entire journey citizens gathered to pay tribute. Always courteous, the general accepted every proffered hand and returned every greeting. America never before had and never again will experience such an emotional outpouring for one man. Every citizen understood that he conducted them through a long and bloody war that achieved glory and independence for their country. All knew viscerally that there never would be another such moment or another such man.

Annapolis and Returning His Commission

      Washington arrived in Annapolis, then the capital and seat of Congress, December 19th. From December 20-22 he was feted endlessly at lavish dinners and balls, always preceded with 13 toasts followed by 13 cannon shots. On December 23rd there was a special session of Congress to honor Washington and to accept his resignation. Attendance overflowed the facilities with people everywhere. He closed his address by stating, “I retire from the great theatre of action and  . . . here offer my commission and take my leave of all employments of public life.” Then he withdrew from his coat pocket the parchment given to him in 1775 that was his appointment as Commander-in-Chief and ceremoniously returned it. Some consider Washington’s Annapolis speech the most significant address ever delivered in civil history.

Christmas in Mount Vernon

       Immediately after his speech, Washington set out for Mount Vernon, still hoping to arrive in time for Christmas. It was so late on the 23rd and the days so short, he got only as far as Bladensburgh, Maryland before retiring for the night. The next morning, Christmas Eve, he rode to the Potomac River, crossed via ferry to Alexandria and rode the final miles. It already was dark when he approached Mount Vernon. About a mile away he could see its many green-shuttered windows – now all ablaze with candles; it was, after all, Christmas Eve.
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Much material is from “General Washington’s Christmas Farewell – A Mount Vernon Homecoming 1783 ” by Stanley Weintraub. The 174 page book is readily available on Amazon for $16.95 new or for under $5.00 used. If you enjoyed reading this post, I guarantee that you will love the book even more!

We are taking a holiday break; the next posting will be in January 2017.

A Politically Correct Christmas

Trigger Warning! Despite our very best effort to be 100% politically correct,
this post uses the term “Christmas” and may contain other microaggressions. 
A Politically Correct Christmas
By: George Noga – December 11, 2016

      Begin by recognizing Santa Claus as a phallocentric, atherosclerotic white male existing within an ageist, authoritarian hierarchy. Only children adhering to bourgeois capitalistic values and to moral absolutism (by agreeing not to be naughty) receive gifts during the Celebration of Winter (formerly Christmas). Such children are brainwashed and seduced into an exploitative, metastasizing consumerism. Gifts are thinly-disguised payola intended to create lifelong addiction to over consumption.

Santa’s bribes to gift-addled children are made by degendered, height-challenged, differently-abled elves at the North Pole, a post-colonial, non-union, right-to-work setting. Regrettably, Obamacare has forced Santa to cap total elf employment at 49 and to limit their work week to 29 hours. The elves and reindeer must constantly avoid stepping off the shrinking polar ice cap and dodge polar bears on passing ice floes.

The tectonic pressure to exchange gifts leads to psychoses not covered by atavistic health insurance plans of rapacious insurance companies. Scrooge-like robber barons, like Wal-Mart, lure unsuspecting shoppers with elaborate decorations, holiday music and even (horrors) low prices. Avoid any stores that stoop so low as to provide ersatz Santas to confuse, coax and cajole young children into an anti-proletarian lifestyle.

PC decor for the Celebration of Winter excludes Christmas-centric trees and any ornaments designed to hang on trees. Also offensive are images of Santa, reindeer, and anything (even napkins) red or green. Even more offensive are nativity scenes and candy canes, the shape of which represents a shepherd’s crook. Snowflakes, snow globes and snowpeople are acceptable; after all, it is a Celebration of Winter. Avoid holiday lights; the energy wasted inexorably leads to more evil fracking and pipelines.

Eschew toys made in China with slave labor, subsidies and currency manipulation, then shipped around the world leaving a humongous carbon footprint. Don’t use wrapping paper or send cards as the environmental impact requires clear cutting of old growth trees and sacrificing spotted owls on the altar of consumerism; moreover, disposing of all the waste requires countless new landfills. After Christmas lines to return gifts attest to the depravity; obviously, people neither needed nor wanted gifts.

Avoid gender specific gifts, the most egregious being NRA-inspired toy guns for the deplorable and irredeemably racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, and Islamophobic boys in flyover land. They will cling to their new guns along with their religion. Certain gifts are acceptable like PCC pills distributed to snowflakes on rape-infested campuses, preferably with funds coerced from the Little Sisters of the Poor. Vacations to socialist havens like Venezuela and North Korea are popular with progressives.

Once all unwanted gifts and waste materials are recycled, avoid binge eating a/k/a Christmas dinner, a microaggression to those with food insecurities. Before eating, skip grace or even a moment of silence, which is but a veiled attempt at prayer. Select organic, non-GMO, sustainable, local and fair-traded foods; tofu is a good choice. Avoid turkey loaded with growth hormones, mutagens, carcinogens and antibiotics, although turkey is preferable to a Chick-fil-A washed down by a 24-ounce Big Gulp.

Ensure that a variety of rest rooms is available for GLBTQ+ who may use any one or more he/she/it/they wish depending on his/her/its/their gender self identity at that moment. For anyone overwhelmed, be sure to provide a safe room with elevator music, teddy bears, videos of frolicking puppies, Play-Doh and warm milk and cookies.


Next up on December 18th is our traditional Christmas posting. 

Media Bias in Person-of-the Year Honors

It is the time of year when the media hand out awards. Their choices reflect their biases.
Media Bias in Person-of-the Year Honors
By: George Noga – December 4, 2016
     It is approaching the time of year when the media and others self righteously and pompously bestow their 2016 person-of-the-year awards. These awards reveal the media’s true values and provide a look deep into their arrogant, biased, progressive psyches. Following is an analysis of both international and local year-end awards.
    We begin with the Nobel Peace Prize. Since WWII there has been only one arguably conservative winner (Kissinger) out of nearly 100 recipients – a rate of 1%. Undeserving winners include: Red Cross, UNICEF, Amnesty International, Gorbachev, Arafat, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, UN IPCC, and Barack Obama. Manuel Santos won in 2016 for a treaty his countrymen soundly rejected; Alvaro Uribe, who brought FARC to the table, should have won. What about Ronald Reagan ending the Cold War?
     Time Magazine has anointed a person-of-the year since 1927. In 90 years there have been only 6 businessmen named –  a rate of 6.7%, or one every 15 years. Business has a greater and more direct impact on people’s lives than government. Among deserving honorees missing are: Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Elon Musk, Charles Schwab, Steve Jobs, Fred Smith, Sam Walton, Walt Disney, Sergey Brin and Larry Page.
      Local awards are even more outre. Our Central Florida newspaper bestows an annual award and I have a list of the recipients since 1983. For the past 33 years, there have been only three business people who won the award and they won mostly for reasons other than their business success – one won because his private development was for a purpose supported by the newspaper and the other two won primarily for their philanthropic activities. Some of the winners noted below truly are laughable.
    • One winner founded an organization that has wrought considerable harm
    • Many politicians and public employees won for simply doing their duty
    • One politician won for passing a (totally unnecessary) tax increase
    • Another person won for politicizing a respected non-political organization
    • Someone won for donating a small portion of great inherited wealth
    Our local paper annually publishes the 50 most influential people in our area. During the recent ascendancy of the Tea Party, they did not list any of the Tea Party leaders in the top 50 – even though they wielded enormous power. It was comedic to see the people they included on their list as being more influential than the Tea Party leaders.
      I once had a friend fond of saying “whoever tooteth not his own horn, his horn goeth untooteth“. My final awards story is personal and inescapably involves tooting my own horn. In 1994 I founded the first school voucher program in Florida totally with private funds. We began by providing 250 scholarships to poor children from Central Florida and had another 2,500 on a wait list. Today that program funds 68,000 students at an annual cost of $300 million; overnight it transformed the school choice narrative. The paper was aware of our program, once giving it front page headlines.
      To my great surprise and consternation, I awoke one morning to read that the local paper had named an “Education Person of the Year“. The honoree was a two-bit liberal politician who had proposed an unneeded tax increase for schools which had zero percent chance of ever passing. Now – I don’t really care about such awards, but this one tells you everything you ever need to know about media bias and depravity.
      Year-end awards provide a bright spotlight into the dank, dark media psyche. Peace prizes, Time Magazine awards and local newspapers’ honors reveal their drossy values and their contempt for anyone that doesn’t imbibe the progressive Kool-Aid.

The next post tells a true and heart-warming Christmas story.

Guns in Switzerland and Honduras

The gun homicide rate in Honduras is 44,000% that of Switzerland. The countries
are equal in population and Honduras has stricter gun laws and 90% fewer guns. 
Switzerland Versus Honduras
Gun laws, Ownership and Homicide
By: George Noga – November 27, 2016
      Switzerland (population 8.1 million) has gun laws similar to the USA and in sharp contrast to the highly restrictive laws of the European Union. Swiss males between ages 20 and 30 (34 for officers) are supplied with military assault rifles which they are required to keep at home. Once their service ends, they may keep their weapons. It is a common sight to see a person in active military service carrying his rifle in public.
       Data on Swiss gun ownership are maintained at the canton level and such statistics are often not reliable, especially for guns acquired before registration was introduced. Estimates of gun ownership vary but the accepted number is 60%, ranking Switzerland third highest in the world – behind the USA and Yemen. Switzerland has a strong gun culture and the government subsidizes and actively encourages recreational shooting.
      For the most recent year data are available, Switzerland experienced 49 homicides with 18 involving firearms. The total homicide rate was less than 0.5 per 100,000 and the homicide rate from guns was .000000225 – equal to .2 per 100,000. Both metrics are among the lowest in the world along with those of Japan, Iceland and Singapore.
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      Honduras’ population of 8.1 million is identical to Switzerland. Under current law, it is legal for Honduran citizens to own guns, but only under a strict regimen with mandatory registration and many other restrictions. Gun ownership in Honduras is 6.2% which is the 87th lowest in the world; few citizens own guns. Guns may be sold legally only by one outlet which is a branch of the Honduran armed forces.
      The homicide rate for Honduras is 104 per 100,000, ranking it highest in the world and twice as high as the second most dangerous place on the planet – Venezuela. Of all the homicides, 85% are with guns; this equates to a rate of 88 per 100,0000.
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   Comparisons are stark. Switzerland has relatively permissive gun laws – even requiring military and reservists to keep weapons at home. Gun ownership of 60% is third highest in the world; yet the gun homicide rate is among the lowest in the world. Honduras restricts gun ownership with only 6% owning guns, ranking 87th worldwide. Nevertheless, the gun homicide rate is the world’s worst – higher than Switzerland by a factor of 440, i.e. for every gun homicide in Switzerland, there are 440 in Honduras.
       I understand: (1) gun laws and gun availability are not related to gun violence and may even be inversely related, i.e. more guns equal less violence; (2) economic, cultural and social factors account for differences in gun violence; and (3) comparing countries as different as Switzerland and Honduras is problematic and that the ideal is to compare countries that are identical except for gun laws and availability. Note: go to www.mllg.us to see my “Guns in America” series which contains such comparisons.
      Nonetheless, the juxtaposition of Switzerland and Honduras is too tantalizing to pass up as it proves beyond any reasonable doubt, and in the starkest possible terms, that gun laws and gun ownership do not beget gun violence. It renders moot the entire gamut of gun control dogma and liberal orthodoxy about banning and confiscating guns. Honduras suffers forty-four thousand percent (44,000%) more gun homicides despite much stricter laws and only 10% the gun ownership of Switzerland.

Our next post, rescheduled from November 13, addresses voter ignorance.

The Real Story of Thanksgiving

Settlers in Jamestown and Plymouth under socialism were reduced to cannibalism and eating rats; after switching to capitalism, they ate turkey and had enough to share with the Indians.
The Real Story of Thanksgiving
By: George Noga – November 20, 2016

       Jamestown, Virginia 1611: Colonists arrived in 1607 and found fertile soil and an abundance of seafood, game, fruit and nuts. Yet within 6 months all but 38 died – most from starvation. In 1609 another 500 settlers arrived and 6 months later 440 died, again mostly of starvation. People ate dogs, cats, mice and even resorted to cannibalism. The survivors gave up and headed back to England. As they sailed out of Chesapeake Bay they encountered three ships with new settlers and decided to give it one more try.

     On the ships was Sir Thomas Dale, the new Governor. Before Dale, everything went into a common store owned by everyone and hence no one. There was no direct connection between work and reward. Like socialism everywhere, people starved in the midst of plenty. Dale’s first action was to give each man 3 acres while requiring them to work one month for the common wheal – equivalent to a flat tax of 8.33%.

     Overnight, the colony began to prosper; people became industrious and inventive. Indians, who had regarded the settlers as inept, suddenly gained respect for them. John Rolfe, husband of Pocahontas who was an ancestor of Elizabeth Warren, wrote that the colonists engaged in “gathering and reaping the fruits of their labors with much joy and comfort” If Jamestown colonists had gathered to give thanks for their first harvest of abundance, it would have been in 1611 and as a direct result of private property.

     Plymouth, Massachusetts 1621: When the Pilgrims landed in 1620 they were governed by the Mayflower Compact which established communal property ownership. All benefits from farming, trade and fishing went into a common stock and were withdrawn as needed. Women washed clothes and dressed meat for everyone and not their own families. This was pure communism: from each according to his ability; to each according to his need. When everyone is entitled to everything, no one is responsible for anything. Soon they were eating rats and 50% had died.

     Just as Dale had done in Jamestown, Governor Bradford took action. He instituted individual property rights, granting parcels of land to each family. In Bradford’s words:
This led to very good success, for it made all hands industrious. Much corn was planted; the women now went willingly into the fields and took their little ones with them to set corn which before would have been thought great tyranny and oppression.” At harvest in 1621 there now was an abundance resulting in the first Thanksgiving.

     United States of America 2016: The story of Jamestown and Plymouth is identical to the experience of all socialist, communist and utopian experiments throughout recorded history; i.e. starvation amidst plenty. They all fail because they are opposed to human nature and they break the link between work and benefit. In contrast, private property and self interest always have worked through the millennia.

     The Thanksgiving narrative today is merely a verisimilitude, a warm, fuzzy, politically correct, feel-good, multi cultural tale. Not one in 100 children in America today knows the real story of Thanksgiving. Readers owe it to their children and grandchildren to acquaint them with the real lessons of Jamestown and Plymouth, i.e. if you want turkey and enough to share with others, only private property can produce it. Socialism brought only unspeakable horrors and privation, starvation amid plenty.


The next post November 27 covers a variety of pithy topics.

Voter Ignorance – A Startling Perspective

Most voters are ignorant of the issues and even about basic political facts.
What are the implications of massive voter ignorance for our republic?  
Voter Ignorance – A Startling Perspective
By: George Noga – November 13, 2016
    The election is history; whoever won was elected by voters ignorant of the issues and about our government. Most voters don’t even know our form of government, incorrectly believing it is a democracy and not a constitutional republic. Voters are ignorant of the identity of the vice president, who controls Congress, the branches of government, taxation and spending. Candidates shamelessly exploit this ignorance.
 
     The founders didn’t see voter ignorance as a problem because government had little power over peoples’ lives; politics was mostly local; and voting was limited to a small cohort of educated white male landowners. With federalism, states appointed senators. All this has changed with universal suffrage and vastly more complexity. Just how big a problem is voter ignorance? Does it doom democracy or, at least, argue for changes? Is it a serious concern voters spend more time planning a vacation than on the issues? 
 
    The answers may surprise you. Voters may be ignorant but they’re not stupid. Should a surgeon spend countless hours learning about foreign trade, immigration and tax policy? The ignorant voter, who spends many hours comparison shopping for a new television rather than learning the issues and the candidates, actually behaves rationally because his decision on the TV makes an immediate and significant difference in his life, whereas the chance his vote will make any difference is infinitesimal. 
 
     Just because voters are grossly underinformed and/or misinformed does not mean they always fail to act rationally. There are four ways voters evince erudite behavior.
 
1. Voters recognize and act on serious problems: When the nation is in the midst of social upheaval, beset with security issues and/or the economy is in a prolonged tailspin, voters invariably will vote out those perceived responsible. Even ignorant voters punish incumbents when there is clear-cut government failure. 
 
2. Prolonged one party rule is rejected: Even low information voters viscerally grasp that incumbency leads to complacency and corruption. Prior to 2016 only Reagan/Bush (since FDR) won 3 consecutive elections. No party won 4 straight (excluding only the civil war era and FDR) since 1801, beginning with Jefferson.
 
3. Peace and prosperity are rewarded: Just as voters react to serious problems by voting out the perps, they also reward success – particularly in achieving peace and prosperity – at least for a time but not for 3 or 4 presidential terms.
 
4. People vote with their feet. Under our federal system, people can and do vote with their feet, moving from one jurisdiction to another. Just as with the TV example, people analyze, rationally and non politically, where to live because it has a large, immediate and direct impact on their lives. That explains why there is a shortage of moving vans in California and a corresponding glut in Texas. 
 
   Surprisingly, perhaps startlingly, massive voter ignorance is not an uber-serious problem. Democracy (including constitutional republics) is not perfect, but what system is better? Even ignorant voters can and do trump demographics, money and special interests. And being ignorant does not always equate to being irrational.
 
   Ignorant voters almost certainly will vote for change in 2020 if the economy is torpid with no prospect of improvement and if America is beset with chronic and serious problems, not the least of which is Obamacare. They will vote for change if we are in the midst of prolonged one party rule and if we have neither peace nor prosperity.
Note to readers: I have been besieged with requests to write an election postmortem. During January 2017 I will provide same. Also as Obama leaves office, I will publish a retrospective on the Obama presidency – that is one post not to be missed and I hope one of the best ever.

The next post on November 20 is our special Thanksgiving edition.

Plague or Pestilence?

Here are some final thoughts about the 2016 election and a far, far too early look at 2020.
Plague or Pestilence?
By: George Noga – November 6, 2016
      I have been a keen observer of US presidential elections beginning 56 years ago in 1960. This election is different than anything I have seen before; only 1968 comes remotely close. By any conventional method or measure, Clinton wins; nevertheless, there is a path still open for Trump if all the factors noted below break just right.
 –

     ##  The polls are wrong. For technical reasons (absence of landlines, etc.) polling is much less accurate than in past elections. Polling was notoriously wrong in many primaries, in the Brexit vote and most recently in the Colombian FARC treaty vote. Many people, especially Trump voters, do not divulge their true feelings to pollsters.

     ##  The massive global failure of government drives voters to make a change. Government is failing in the US, Europe, Japan, the Middle East and elsewhere. Change is in the air worldwide and the USA is not immune from this dynamic which was clearly manifest in the Brexit vote and in other recent European elections.

     ##  Voter turnout could produce a seismic swing if blacks and millennials stay home while evangelicals turnout in force. Polls do not properly account for turnout.

     ##  Obamacare is a festering wound and massive voter repudiation could happen.

A Ridiculously Early Look at the 2020 Election
Are you ready for President Tom Cotton?

     Believe it or not, I honestly think I can make a fairly accurate assessment of the 2020 election. Just as it can be easier to see longer term movement in stock prices, the same thing is possible in politics – especially given conditions and trends in the USA.

     Assuming Hillary wins in 2016, her policies will be a continuation of the failed Obama regime. The US economy will remain in a low (or negative) growth mode and lucky to avoid recession. Recessions occur every 7 or 8 years and 2020 would be 12 years since the last one. Hillary’s tax, regulatory and trade policies will prove disastrous and at some point this will be reflected in the financial markets. Obamacare will fester for four more years leading to massive voter repudiation. The global anti-government movement will build steam and morph into an unstoppable force.

     By 2020 the US will be an economic basket case with immense underemployment, stagnant (or even declining) middle class incomes and debt and deficits nearing critical mass. Malaise will define the national mood. The country will have suffered through 12 years of one party rule; historically this means change – which would have occurred in 2016 had anyone but Trump been nominated; it is merely being delayed four years. Did I mention a weak military, foreign conflagrations and a worsening of terrorism?

     It is ridiculously premature to predict who the president will be in 2021, but my bet is firmly on Tom Cotton. Remember, you read it first in this post. Heck – I am going to go all in on Cotton. Not only will Cotton win big in 2020, he will go on to lead a Reaganesque revival in America – provided America still is recognizable in 2021.


We are skipping next week; the next post is scheduled for November 20.