The Global Population Collapse

If climate change is manmade, then the population bust resolves it and at no cost.

The Global Population Collapse

By: George Noga – February 14, 2021

Very few, if anyone, reading this will be alive when the population collapse hits in full force early in the next century. Although that is a long way off, there are significant impacts in the shorter term. The biggest is that the population bust presents a solution to climate change; see our related 1/31/21 posting on our website at: www.mllg.us.

Population 100 years from now will be less than today and collapsing rapidly. Humans have not experienced a population bust since the Black Death 700 years ago. I spent hours researching what happened after the plague to see what lessons I could glean for today. Other than the fact that labor (due to scarcity) became far more valuable, and hastened the end of serfdom, I found nothing that resonates today.

Back to climate change. If indeed there are fewer of us in the future, that means CO2 emissions also are less, assuming they remain constant per capita. But what happens if everyone is much better off and has the same CO2 footprint as people in advanced countries today? If everyone is well off, they also will reduce their energy footprint just as wealthy nations are doing today. Moreover, global population will plunge far below that of today. The lesson is clear: we should not waste trillions on ineffective feel-good measures when a solution to climate change is staring us in the face. If climate change is manmade, as its proponents assert, then a smaller population solves the problem.

Let’s look at some numbers. World population today is 7.8 billion. Per a University of Washington study published in the Lancet, population is projected to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. However, if current trends accelerate, as is happening, they forecast population as low as 6.3 billion by 2100. At low fertility rates, population halves every generation. Within a century or so, population could plunge from say 10 billion to 5 billion to 2.5 billion to 1.25 billion – a drop of 87.5%.

Even today, most wealthy countries have a fertility rate between 1.0 and 1.5 – far below the 2.1 required for a stable population. The USA is at 1.7 but population is stable due to immigration. By 2100 every country on Earth will be under 2.1. China’s population (fertility rate 1.0) is expected to drop 50%, by .75 billion people. In many countries population will fall over 50%, including Japan, South Korea, Italy, Portugal and Spain. It already has begun, as deaths today exceed births in Japan and South Korea.

Once fertility drops below 2.1, population recovery becomes impossible.

The population collapse is worse – far worse – than it appears. As population plunges, it also ages rapidly. Once population collapses, reversing it becomes nearly impossible; it is so difficult some demographers believe Earth’s population never again will increase. Increasing fertility with an elderly population is daunting for obvious reasons. No country in history has recovered its population once its fertility rate fell below 2.1.

Progressives still are flogging the politically correct narrative that overpopulation is the problem. They were wrong in Malthus’ time and they are wrong today. Prince Harry and Megan, who vowed not to have children, are comically wrong. Paul Erlich’s population bomb not only has failed to explode, it actually is imploding.

The implosion of the population bomb comes with serendipitous benefits such as described supra about climate change. Also, much of the planet’s surface will be rewilded and the environment will return to a pristine state. That’s the good news.

On the other side of the ledger are too few workers to provide health care for a huge cohort of elderly, only two workers to support each retiree and failure of many pension plans. When the elderly start cashing out their IRAs, who will be the ones buying? Who will buy all the cars, houses, refrigerators, or anything for that matter, in a depopulating world? From where will governments derive their funding?

At least population collapse will solve climate change. But don’t expect to see progressives jumping for joy. It is not about the climate; it never was.


Next up on February 21st: MLLG State of the Union Address

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