Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

If Americans hate each other, but honor the Constitution and accept election results, we have a country. Once that stops, anything, including civil war, becomes possible.
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
By: George Noga – February 3, 2019

     Four gigatrends are gathering steam; each is life altering. The convergence of two, three or all four will transform life in these United States and on this planet; they are:   

 1. Concentration of IQ, both high and low, in different cohorts of the population: Instead of the World State controlling children’s IQ in hatcheries, as in Huxley’s Brave New World, we are doing it voluntarily, but every bit as thoroughly. 

2. Spending crisis: The US already has crossed the point-of-no-return.

3. Political/Cultural incivility: When we shred the Constitution, reject election results, rig the electoral system and investigate/jail opponents, that is a prelude to civil war. 

4. Intergenerational conflict: Ageing population, lengthening lifespans, unfunded medical and pension costs, fewer multi-generational families, spending crisis and rampant intergenerational theft create a recipe for hostility, strife and worse.

FOUR HORSEMEN IS PRESENTED IN THREE PARTS. THIS POST ADDRESSES INCIVILITY AND INTERGENERATIONAL CONFLICT. PART TWO NEXT WEEK FOCUSES ON IQ ISSUES. THE FINAL IN THIS SERIES OFFERS CONCLUSIONS.
 

Political and Cultural Incivility

       Even if Americans hate each other, as long as everyone honors the Constitution and accepts election results, we have a country; once that stops, anything – including civil war – becomes possible. Accepting election results means not trying to change or rig the electoral system, not removing or jailing opponents and not spying on or investigating them without clear evidence of a crime.

There is no doubt incivility is on the ascendancy – one only needs to recall the Kavanaugh nomination. How does it all end? There are only a few possibilities, as described in America’s Cold Civil War by Charles Kesler. A transcendental event could change everything (unlikely) or people might change their minds through persuasion or moderation (unlikely). That leaves only three choices – two of which are devastating. 

The most sanguine of the three remaining alternatives is a sluiced up form of federalism whereby red and blue states handle the most contentious and divisive issues on a state level – thus denationalizing them. After all, the reason for our original constitutional federalism is that states have different interests and cultures. It is hard to see that working. What about purple states and issues that can’t be denationalized? If federalism on steroids doesn’t work, that leaves only two other possibilities – secession and civil war – those gruesome scenarios require no further elaboration. 

Intergenerational Conflict

For all the reasons noted supra, intergenerational conflict already is present and leading to strife. It is particularly virulent in the UK where negative views about old people are pervasive and even hostile. The US population over 65 will double in the next generation and Social Security and Medicare will require huge intergenerational transfers. On top of that comes the inevitable climax of the spending crisis. Finally, there is also a political and cultural divide between generations. 

It will only get worse as cultural, economic, demographic and political fault lines between generations come under more stress. As population ages, lifespan lengthens, Medicare, Social Security and pensions are vastly underfunded, and the spending crisis takes its inevitable toll, it could get ugly. Will less well-off younger generations blithely continue to subsidize older generations with whom they are in conflict and, not to put too fine a point on it, who also stole vast sums from their generation?


Don’t miss part II next week about IQ concentration; it is radioactive!